This truly was an exceptional year in more ways than one. The following article that you are about to read is probably not what you think it is going to be about.
To all of my friends here who follow this fantastic sport with an eagerness to become better handicappers, to learn from each other and to just talk about horses,
Let me first apologize to you all before I even get into it. As you are all aware, I have had quite a hard time since the day I found out that a dirt-bag used my analysis, my picks, my words and my work from the 2018 Kentucky Derby that I posted on HRF-Online last year (along with lifting my words from the comments I made in the threads as well) and it has continued all the way through til this years Belmont Edition. Well over a year. I am hoping that it finally ends today. I don't want to get into all of the ins and outs of it, that is not the purpose of the article. It is simply the backdrop.
The reason I want to apologize to you is because the article that I posted the night before the running of the Belmont, purposefully entitled "Tomorrow, the Belmont Stakes" was the intended prelude to this article entitled "The Day After, the Belmont Stakes". To put it as plainly and as directly as I can - it was kind of a set-up.
As I told you all a couple of days ago, somewhere on a comment on one of our threads, "I will have the last word."
I wrote the article "Tomorrow, the Belmont Stakes" well over a week ago. Again, I apologize for waiting until the last minute to post it but I had no choice and it was part of my plan to end this crap with this guy stalking this site. It was also my plan to nail that son of a bitch and to make him look like a complete and utter fool, which I will happily convey to you all, I do believe was quite a success. I will explain it all and I just hope that most of you had the chance to read that article and I hope that you all pulled out exactly what I was trying to convey, even the subliminal areas. I still had to be careful, the race wasn't run yet and only God knows if this guy would have posted something in the morning...
I wrote the "Belmont Dosage Analysis Without Game Winner" article with a horrible feeling in the pit of my stomach. I knew he was going to read it and I knew I was going to see my dosage conclusions yet again on the Washington Post and there was nothing I could do about it. I did try over and over to get it taken care of with the Sports Editor there but to put it bluntly, she basically blew me off and didn't take the matter seriously. She covered his ass and so he continued. Even with tons of proof, they will cover their own. Anyway, I still wrote the article but I was way too careful and way too vague and it was not how I like to do things. I was guarded.
After posting that article which honestly was a half-hearted effort, I continued as I usually do to rip apart the numbers for several days on my own. (I still believe and stand by the fact that Spinoff had the best breeding for the job today, but the horse obviously lacks in heart and determination.) After pouring over the numbers and doing my combos and research, I just had to write the "Tomorrow" article because this field was unlike any I can remember in the recent past. The whole field was off in so many ways and because of all of my findings with the history and the combinations that did not jive with anything in the past, I knew that this year would not follow in the same manner as years passed. I knew it so I wrote the "Tomorrow" article to warn everyone but I could not post it until he posted his final article with "his analysis" and his picks. I refused to give him my work again on a silver platter so I waited patiently and then he finally put it up. It was exactly what I thought he was going to post as his final "fantastic and so insightful" picks. I actually laughed my ass off when I saw it. The guy thought he was slick, pouring over my old articles and probably reading up on Dr. Roman's theories (which, by the way, have absolutely nothing at all to do with handicapping the Belmont Stakes!) without a clue how to use them, combine them, nor how to read them or how to interact them against each other when handicapping a field.
This is what he urged his readers to do: (I am sure you will all feel the same gratification and joy just as I did. Oh, and I am sourcing HIS work)
Hahahahahahaha. Okay. I'm sorry, but that is just too funny. Anyway, once he finally posted this final article, I could finally post my real thoughts and findings without worrying that the little entitled weasel, wanna-be handicapper and "dosage guru" would lift my article and words again. I waited until the last minute after I thought it would be safe.
My article last night should have been posted well over a week ago (with a different title of course!) and I should have been able to discuss it on the thread with all of you on my own website but I couldn't do it because I feel he is still lurking around. It's like I can smell him and it disgusts me. He posted the one article about Spinoff and the dosage stuff blah blah blah so I knew he was still around. He then posted on Twitter that he was giving his trifecta and superfecta picks out on Friday as if the world was waiting for the master handicapper's insightful picks and he needed to shout it from the rooftops. So I waited. I wanted that guy to look like the fool that he is and there was no way in hell that I was going to give him time to post one last article for this Belmont using my work. There was no way I was going to give him a reason to change his own tickets while his readers listened to the worst advise on handicapping that I think I have ever seen. I'd rather slit my wrists then see that.
So, I opted for the waiting game and just left the analysis sit there quietly and he took that bait and ran with it. The gratification that I felt when I saw his entire article and picks was almost as thrilling as when I saw Rock Hard Ten in person. Pure Bliss. I apologize to you all again but I had to let him fall on his own and all I had to do was sit and wait.
Below is part of my "Tomorrow" article (which is highlighted with important items) that I posted late Friday night, on the eve of the Belmont Stakes that I truly wanted you all to read and take into consideration before placing any of your bets. It was the reason why I sent out the campaign email to you all as fast as I could for a one day article. I could not say a word all week about what I found in those numbers and I could not post the article any sooner. I had to wait until I figured it was safe. This will not be the norm going forward. I am taking steps now to protect my work and the articles and analysis' will be posted in a timely manner (and password protected) without having to watch my words on my own website for fear of them getting lifted again. As in the past, my analysis going forward will be written with as much research, dedication and passion and not guarded and vague as it was because of that creep.
The Dirty Horse Club will be back to normal starting today.
I told you all, I will have the last word and I won't be used any longer.
6/8/2019 - "Tomorrow, the Belmont Stakes"
Every year, a completely different field, filled with completely different attributes, is entered into this race. Each year present a different puzzle. Sometimes, those who were bred with “seemingly” proper configurations are really lacking against who is standing in the gates next to them. It is not simply looking at chef’s dosage index and making a conclusion that because he falls into that group, then he automatically finds an advantage. This is incorrect and will surely cost you. I cannot stress enough that when dealing with these numbers, you must pit them against what is running on the field.
Most years, the extreme high percentages that hit the board fall into a certain category, that being 2.10 to 3.00 from their chefs. The mare’s silent contribution is crucial and more important. If we take last year as an example, Vino Rosso rounded out the superfecta against a field of ten. On the surface, Vino appeared a speed demon with his 3.57 index. His 9 points spread told a different story along with his distaste on the sloppy surface in the Derby. Those two facts, and nothing else… not his past performances, not his workouts, not his beyer figures… simply those two facts, made him an obvious addition to the super. Nothing is etched in stone with an advantaged category. You must look at every fact and detail and use common sense, which is the key to a great handicapper.
This year, we are presented with an overloaded advantaged category, but are they really as advantaged as they appear on the surface?
I would offer a huge no in that department.
The only colt who has an advantage with his breeding is Spinoff. That is it.
The rest who fall into that category may be balanced and correct through their chefs, but they are thrown off balance with their mares.
Once in a while, a colt will strictly gravitate to his chefs and claim his spot (Tapit colts as of late) but the extremely large majority of those colts who win or hit the board in the Belmont do rely on their mares to balance them out.
If ever there was a year where that advantaged category would not run that tote board, it would be this year.
Since 9 out of 10 entries do not “correspond” to the norm of what hits the board and what does not hit the board, and when you pit the breeding up against each other, there are a few amazing things that jump to the surface.
First, being balanced on the top and lacking on the bottom in that advantaged category, works exactly the same now for the other categories. These guys are balanced on the bottom with stamina coming from the top. It is opposite but it is now more conducive to the 12f. That changes the dynamics of the field.
I am not saying that the 2.00 category is doomed this year, but what I am saying is that they have no advantage whatsoever as they did overwhelmingly in past editions.
Only one has the advantage. Spinoff. That’s it. Simply having an advantage does not mean he is a lock.
Not every advantaged colt always wins his race either. That is something we are all very aware of.
An advantage is not a ticket to the Winners Circle. It helps a great deal but nothing is ever sealed in stone.
This leads us to the bottom base of the spectrum. Tax and War of Will. If these guys were entered in last year’s Belmont or any other recent past Belmont for that matter, their advantage would be slim to none.
With this assembled field, they now share the same exact probability as those in the upper categories. Maybe slightly more.
The top base of the spectrum - the three speed guys; Tacitus, Everfast and Joevia.
The case for Tacitus is obvious. The cases for Joevia and Everfast are not as obvious. One is holding Tapit and the other two are holding a much higher degree of mare stamina underneath the speed of their chefs.
Not one of the three would hold any type of advantage any other year but this year, the group assembled lacks in some necessary aspects which turns any disadvantage into an advantage.
The 2019 Belmont Stakes is as wide open for board hits as you will most likely ever see. Since the 2.00 category is blistered, this presents a wide open field underneath.
A case could made to toss 9 out of 10 colts on this field for this 12f race and a case could be made to use any one of them due to the apparent lack of proper balance.
That case being, the stamina found in the speed guys, Tapit found in the speed category, stamina found in War of Will and Tax coupled with balanced speed. You see, the board is open because the 2.00 category is lacking.
Four colts will hit that board and it will be based on the ability to run the 12f. I can only say that stamina, combined with previously displayed speed, will hold much more merit this year than simply looking at the advantaged 2.00 category. Take heed of the bottom of the spectrum. Do not discount the power of the 2.10 to the 3.00 category but since their numbers are not tied neatly in a bow, it translates to nine horses on this field who are carrying no advantage at all. With no advantage, luck, class, and stamina will shine.
This is truly an exceptional year.
Order of Finish:
1. SIR WINSTON - 2.71 - The only one in the "advantaged" category to hit the board this year. This is because the entire field (except Spinoff) was lacking in balance and the race was run as slow as they could go on one of the fastest Belmont Tracks ever. Out of all of the mid-range colts, he was holding the least favorable set-up and still made it to the line first.
2. TACITUS - 3.31 - Tapit.
3. JOEVIA - 3.80 - "This guy gained a nice amount of stamina from his mares without a doubt and that negative 0.29 is one of the best on the board for the distance. His combined CD offers him a fair shake in this race but he has shown that he prefers his male inheritance too much to be confident that he will magically favor those mares for this particular race." ----- Looks like he magically found a way to use those mares. Great job.
4. TAX - 1.56 - He is actually holding the 3rd best optimum distance (11f) on the field for this race. He is still below but much higher when pitted against the field that he is entered against. He is gaining his extra stamina from his chefs and his mares are offering even more but the 7 in the brilliant slot of his triads water it down just a bit. With a nice even pace Tax should be just fine after the final turn while most of the others are packing it in. He is a strong board hit contender even though this category does not have an advantage at all. He is worth the addition into a Superfecta play. ----- He did his job.
5. MASTER FENCER - 2.50
6. SPINOFF - 2.78 - He had the best set up and he did not use what he inherited. It goes to show that in any field, no matter how advantaged, (and he truly was) nothing is ever a lock. Ever.