After every major race, I always analyze the results to see how the chef and mares numbers held up. It is a way of backing the analysis with results and this year was no different. No surprises. The numbers told the story as they usually do. Whether that story was configured correctly on a winning superfecta ticket is another story altogether.
First, I am always honest with how I personally did after all of the work and research.
Gronkowki. Had him in third and fourth on my tickets. He came like a freight to spoil my party by one again. I went heavier with Tenfold who ended up rounding out the Super High Five. Gronkowski was my struggle because every year, without fail, I fall hard for the invaders with their incredible numbers and incredible looks. But, against my better judgement (par for the course) I put more emphasis on his past performances over his ability to slam the 12f distance. This is a huge mistake for this particular race. Always was, always will be. I can not stress that enough when it comes to The Belmont Stakes.
Past performances mean nothing in the Belmont Stakes. It is always about who was bred with the right balance and the right mare stamina and with some class.
The Belmont Stakes is about having the perfect speed/stamina balance and it is about having a serious amount of mare stamina. This is one race where the numbers reappear on top, over and over, year after year. With the high amount of entrants this year between that 2.10 and 3.00 Chef index, the mare’s numbers were imperative to truly understand exactly what these guys were packing at this distance.
The stand out outside of that 2.10 to 3.00 was Vino Rosso. Gaining a huge 9 point spread between his inherited speed and inherited stamina made him a standout for the Superfecta. His 3.57 Chef Index is truly never good for a win here, but next year, remember, the mares stamina will always balance out a “speed” guy and with triads like the ones Vino is holding, you can never go wrong with that underneath.
I had noted that "Tenfold and Gronkowski has the upperhand with their mares stamina, conversely, Blended Citizen has the upperhand with his speed. Their fate lies with the pace." Well, by the order of finish, that fate was laid out in all its glory. Mare stamina goes to the top, the speed fell to the bottom.
One of the biggest missteps of those who consult dosage numbers, breeding and pedigree for the Belmont Stakes is they put the emphasis on a low chef index and believe that that is all it takes to make the 12f distance. This thinking is absolutely 100% incorrect.
As this year again reveals, colts with an index between 2.10 and 3.00 will always have the advantage, extreme high mare stamina will have the advantage and a balanced profile combination between the chefs and mares will always have the advantage. Once in awhile either one "speed" guy or one "stamina" guy will bust into that top 4. Usually it is a speed guy if it happens and that speed guy must have the backing with his inherited mare stamina. He must be holding a ton of it - just like Vino.
And so another Triple Crown series has come and gone and even though I missed this by one again, I have no regrets and I am left with no doubt that the numbers are the key, year after year, in sorting out the top guys from the pretenders and will forge ahead. The numbers never lie. It is always there, written in black and white.
Gronkowski – Second. OUCH!! If only Hofburg or Vino held strong and kept him at third! If only!