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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2yo Race Analysis - Sanford Stakes 7/17/2021

6f Sanford Stakes G3 – July 17 – Saratoga R9

Two Year Olds, Non-Lasix

New series beginning this year. I will post the two year old graded stakes races (or even maiden races) with contenders in order to track those with the potential to be players in the Kentucky Derby. When handicapping these races, you must remember two things – the distance of the particular race of the day and how it pertains to the breeding for the Kentucky Derby. This will aid you for the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Derby Futures bets. This is exactly what I do each year in order to track the progress and potential for each of these 2 year olds. Hopefully, I can keep up as these races pop up on both coasts on a weekly basis. Spotlight races once a week.

The first race of the series begins at Saratoga. The 6f Stanford Stakes – Race 9.

Here is the Past Performance Sheet:

Sanford Stakes - Saratoga R9
Download PDF • 129KB

This is an extremely intriguing race. The sires represented include Classic Empire, American Pharoah, Honor Code, Twirling Candy, Mohaymen, Carpe Diem, among others. Prior to the change in the surface at Saratoga, stamina dominated – not any more. For this 6f race, speed will have the advantage and this race is loaded. The highlight here will be what they either have backing them to go forward or what they have in spite of the bias to compete.

In other words, if a speed demon wins the race (and he should) you must look at what else he is packing to take him passed the 6f and into that 8.5f Juvenile race or 10f Derby going forward. If a stamina driven colt takes this race, take special note. He will have no problems moving forward, however, speed is now dictating these future races, so it is important to watch for any of them who are speed driven with a capacity to clear the 10f. They may not show off this early but they have what it takes over the long haul.


These 4 colts are the most advantaged for the 6f race.


American Pharoah – Tribal Music (A.P. Warrior)

DP = 2-3-3-0-0 (8) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 9-2-4-7-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 15-13-17

Pharoah boy and a definite sprinter with a definite advantage in this race. His numbers are horrific for the Derby though so if he takes this race, he should be fine all the way up to the Breeders Juvenile. After that, give it a rest. Afterall, he is not in Baffert's barn.


Classic Empire – Seven Stars (Indygo Shiner)

DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90

Mare Profile = 7-3-5-9-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.79 Triads = 15-17-21

Very partial to Classic Empire, especially when his offspring are packing these types of configurations. High speed up top with high stamina underneath. These are Derby numbers so if he can manage to pull off a very nice performance here, he would be one to latch onto going forward. The triads are a tad off but we shouldn't be too picky this early. Lets see what he can do with those numbers. Unfortunately, this guy came from the back to win his 5f maiden, which will be a terribly hard feat to duplicate at Saratoga. But this justifies keeping an eye on him going forward - apparently he likes his mares very much.


Mohaymen – Ad Litem (Successful Appeal)

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 9-2-6-8-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 17-16-20

He actually has a better set-up in configurations than his sire Mohaymen. More speed up top and better triads. If he puts in a half decent performance at Saratoga, he is holding enough for forward consideration.


Flatter – Apple Cider (More than Ready)

DP = 8-6-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.85

Mare Profile = 10-5-1-6-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.90 Triads = 16-12-18

He has enough inbred speed for this race and should be closer to the front among this field. If he wins this race, he isn't holding too much to get excited about going forward. Its fairly neutral either way.


These 4 guys have ample speed to compete but at 6f, they lose a bit of their advantage. All 4 of them have great potential moving forward.


Practical Joke – Numero d’Oro (Medaglia d’Oro)

DP = 3-3-3-1-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 6-5-7-8-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.83 Triads = 18-20-22

Beautiful numbers across the board. Major potential going forward. Wit has one of the best sets of configurations on the field both for this race and going forward. Let's see what this Practical Joke boy can do against those 4 up top.


Twirling Candy – Pearl Bay (Rush Bay)

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 4-4-8-10-5 Speed = 8 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.71 Triads = 16-22-23

Wow! Nice mares numbers and major potential with that 3.00 index. He is definitely stamina driven and will skyrocket as the distances go further. Whether or not he wins the Sanford is of no matter, he has a built-in advantage going further which is what we are looking for. The .67 CD will be hard at 6f but if he can pull it off (or even a board hit) he is one to latch onto. Very nice.


Carpe Diem – Candle Maker (Tapit)

DP = 3-9-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 6-6-6-8-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.20 Triads = 18-20-17

Another with stellar configurations. Second generation Tapit as well. The mares numbers tilt to speed with a higher index but that is good in his case because he has the extra punch of Tapit stamina. Excellent prospect regardless of what he does here.


Honor Code – Dancinginthestreet (Street Boss)

DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 4-2-7-5-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.65 Triads = 13-14-19

Honor Code makes one take special notice but with that .69 chef CD coupled with the low .65 mare's index, he's going to want much more distance than this race offers. Once the races go further and we hit those 9f+ races, his triads will adversely affect him. The mares are very loaded in stamina and it is tilting the balance away from that 3.00 index. Gauging what he does in this race against the Pharoah, Classic Empire, Mohaymen, Practical Joke boys will tell us alot about which way Dance Code wants to go.

MIDRANGE 2.00 – 2.90


STAMINA – Under 2.00

If any of these 4 guys wins this 6f race, take extreme notice going forward. They would be displaying great speed in spite of their stamina dominance. Two of them don't seem to have much going forward but the other two certainly do. These guys are the type that used to dominate graded stakes races in the USA decades ago and the type that should be the stars. They have the Juvenile and Kentucky Derby distance but they always have the disadvantage going forward against speed, even as those distances grow. That is the sign of the times but there is always new found hope with the absence of Baffert in Kentucky. Unfortunately though, Breeders Cup in DelMar this year, so the Baffert infiltration will come into play.


Gormley – Green Eyed Cat (Tale of the Cat)

DP = 3-2-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 7-3-7-3-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.92 Triads = 17-13-18

Up against it in this race. Triads lack for the Derby. Not feeling anything here.


Kantharos – Going to Kukaro (Speightstown)

DP = 2-2-5-1-0 (10) DI = 1.86 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-4-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-11-14

Same as Headline Report. Nothing for this race and not much going forward towards the Derby.


Lea – Weekend Connection (Pulpit)

DP = 2-6-17-3-0 (28) DI = 1.43 CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 9-1-4-7-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.79 Triads = 14-12-20

A ton of stamina here and actually did very well in his last race in the mud which is very surprising. Definitely has Derby and Belmont distance so the performance at 6f here would be very telling. If there is displayed speed again, regardless of placement, he would be good to watch for as the distances progress. Triads are a bit tricky though for the Derby.


Treasure Beach – Dobra (Smoke Glacken)

DP = 3-0-9-8-0 (20) DI = 0.60 CD = -0.10

Mare Profile = 6-8-1-8-11 Speed = 14 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.68 Triads = 15-17-20

This is the type of configuration that gets my heart pumping. Old time vintage superior numbers sporting that negative 10 Chef's CD. He wired his maiden race with these numbers. I wont get too crazy this early but I will say, if this guy wires this field and beats the caliber of those sires up in that speed category, just be prepared for much more in depth analysis on this one. This colt has overseas numbers and to get back to these types of "winners" would be nothing short of spectacular for our sport. This is the one that must be watched very closely in this 6f race. With Galileo in his second generation, he has a bit of that Code of Honor thing going on this early. He needs to display speed consistently, on different tracks and on different bias'. This horse is all stamina and so far he has done a great job with his style of running. He has that Gun Runner type potential.


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