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Handicapping - Pedigree - History - Dosage

2023 Pegasus World Cup Analysis

January 28th, 2023 Gulfstream Park 9f Race 13

Listed in order of Gate assignment. Referencing only speedy bias races - conducive to Gulfstream.

1 PROXY Tapit - Panty Raid (Include)

DP = 5-13-15-1-0 (34) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.65

Mare Profile = 12-3-1-7-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.08 Triads = 16-11-17 (1st gen Tapit)

  • 1st place at Churchill - last race - gate 1 - (semi-fast track) - stalked in 2nd - excelled late

  • 3rd place at Churchill in July (speedy track) - rear to front at 9f with great pace figures

  • 2nd place at Churchill in June (speedy track) - ran midpack to 2nd at 9f with good pace figures

Proxy doesn't care about running styles. He will settle wherever he pleases, and he will still hit that board every single time. With the trend of Proxy's last 3 races, he will be coming with a vengeance into that stretch. Based on his past performance, pulling post one gives him a much greater probability of shooting for the top tier early, a very advantageous spot to settle.

Even though Proxy has run on a "semi-fast" bias in the summer at Churchill, he has never been given the opportunity to shine on a very fast slick bias. Inconclusive evidence as to how he will react on it. Based on the incredible configurations of his chefs profile, along with the glaring 12 points in the mares brilliant speedy slot, and also that higher 1.08 speedy mare index, Proxy has a real shot at exploding on this track.

Last race at Churchill, Proxy drew the one hole and Rosario gunned out of that gate, stalked in 2nd place for the win. Proxy does favor a speed bias, but it is not at the heightened level of Defunded. He also has the stamina power of Tapit in his back pocket with a killer late kick. I can see Proxy taking advantage as he normally does for his board hit or even better. You can't go wrong with a 34 point Tapit boy on a speed favoring bias with a bunch of speedsters who mostly all have a tendency to wind down late with an early wicked pace. This horse has the advantaged breeding (staying power) over Defunded, but the latter has the advantage in bias (as far as we can tell). This may in fact actually be the surface that Proxy has been waiting for.

Even though I feel that Proxy is a better horse than Defunded, the track advantage is not set in stone. Because of this, I will be boxing in this race and hoping for the better odds to hit higher. I will be using this horse because he has a real shot to explode on this surface. With all eyes on Cyberknife and with the ultimate odds at post time, Proxy is a real threat for that wire.


2 SIMPLIFICATION Not This Time - Simply Confection (Candy Ride)

DP = 1-0-9-0-0 (10) DI = 1.22 CD = 0.20

Mare Profile = 2-11-4-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-26-18

  • 3rd at Gulfstream, 8.5f, sat midpack, even pace

  • 4th at Parx, 9f, stalked in 2nd, high beyers, kept even pace

  • 6th at Pimlico, 9.5f, was faded out due to bleeding - toss race

  • 3rd at Gulfstream, stalked in 2nd, held his spot evenly while still losing late energy

  • 1st's and 2nds at Gulfstream with even pace throughout and high beyers

Simplification is probably the easiest read on this field. He savors a fast track, with the ability to keep an even fast pace throughout each call. Noticeable track preference with "off" performance at Keeneland in BCC Mile. Deceiving 1.22 index, highly influenced by the mares and his sire Not This Time. 9f is his ultimate sweet spot.

The most telling aspect of Simplification is that while he is usually inferior to the hotshots in most every race he enters, they pale in comparison to his will and determination - almost like the Little Horse Who Could - never wavering, always pressing forward to be a part of the mix in the end. There is something to be said about that type of horse and amongst this entire crowd, not one compares to his ever-enduring conviction race after race. His defeats do not affect him in the least and he runs basically the same race every time. With a preference to this bias, his home field, the optimum 9f distance, there is no reason to think that he won't demand his board-hit spot as usual. Because of that, Simplification is a deserving low board hit guy once again.


3 RIDIN WITH BIDEN (Constitution - Allemande (Medaglia d'Oro)

DP = 3-6-4-1-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 7-7-3-3-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.33 Triads = 17-13-12 (2nd gen. Tapit)

  • Won at Parx from mid-pack, 75k, on a sloppy track at 1mi 70. Last call figure, he crumbled.

  • Won at Parx stalking in 3rd, 75k, at 1mi 70. Last call figure better - held his energy.

  • Won at Parx gate to wire, G3, traveling 12f. That was all Constitution/Tapit. Favorable spot.

With plenty of experience on the proper bias, along with a very favorable style of running, he appears to be quite the conflicted little horse. While he scores against inferior horses (inferior to this group) from 1mi70 all the way up to 12f, his energy distribution did a complete 180 from his first 5 races to his last 5 races. Appears his connections have flipped his distribution while keeping his style. No easy feat to do but it has affected his late speed. While a gate to wire win at 12f on the proper bias appears impressive, consider that same performance against Grade 1 winner Mo Donegal in the Belmont Stakes. Based on final times, Ridin would have ended up approximately 19.5 lengths behind Mo Donegal at Belmont. The horse is slow, but he isn't "the slowest" amongst allowance and Grade 3 runners at Parx - so he posts wins. He has the staying power but his late energy for 9f is slightly iffy depending on the pace. He certainly is not the worst of the field - his staying power and his surprising class is worthy of a chance.

While his breeding is certainly up to par and based on all of his past performances, I can't help but wonder if this guy would actually be even better suited on tougher tracks. With the undeniable evidence in his ability to keep steady pace at 12f coupled with fairly simple speed beyers, and his chart, it would appear that a speedy bias might not be the best suited for him. None-the-less, he has competed well against allowance and Grade 3 runners on it. His class actually outweighs 7 other horses on this list.

Because of the high amount of speed found in the better contenders here, this horse's breeding and high capability from his stamina side holds a deserving shot at the tote board above a good portion of the contenders here. He is the type that could hit a piece by default based on the Parx bias experience and his endurance capability.


4 WHITE ABARRIO Race Day - Catching Diamonds (Into Mischief)

DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 9-5-2-7-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.00 Triads = 16-14-17 (2nd gen Tapit)

  • 5th at Parx, 9f, on the lead and disintegrated.

  • 1st at Gulfstream, 9f, settled mid-pack, winning while severely losing late energy.

  • 1st at Gulfstream 3 times at 6.5f, 8f, and 8.5f, lead or stalk 2nd, held energy

Being dubbed as the "horse for the course" this guy has only kept his energy on a very fast bias one time, a year ago in the Holy Bull. Since then, he has shown his need for a very moderate early pace and if he doesn't get it, he loses his intensity after the second call. Most notable and telling here, is the only other time since the Holy Bull, where he kept his energy steady, was at Thistledown against Tawny Port where he hit 2nd. Completely different bias and plays straight into his second generation Tapit influence.

He posted high figures in his last race - a sloppy track and prior to that he did have impressive figures but he ended up 8 lengths behind Epicenter in the 9f PA Derby. These stats are not good against this crew in the least. The only hope that this guy could have is if the pace is very moderate early and even then, a board hit shot against a few here is going to be very tough.

Prior to his horrendous performance in the Haskell, he was a reliable, better than average, type of horse. After the Haskell, he gained in beyer figures - all under 9f - and failed. He will have a fast pace in this race. He will be going longer. He will have a group of other "horses for the course" who thrive at 9f. He would need to take a giant leap forward in order to have a shot at the bottom of the tote board. Could happen because of Tapit's influence but he hasn't really shown he has it to give.


5 DEFUNDED Dialed In - Wind Caper (Touch Gold)

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 10-4-3-5-10 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-12-18

  • Won at Delmar 9f, stalking in 2nd in 1:50.12

  • Won at Santa Anita 9f, gate to wire in 1:49.38

  • Last 8 works at Santa Anita all produced exceptional times, including 6 bullets.

  • Running style and bias preference is unmatched on the field.

Baffert walks into this race with the horse who has the highest advantage on the field. The trick with Defunded is that he must break well and secure his preferred lead or stalking style. Just like We the People in the Pennsylvania Derby, both lead speedy horses are one-trick ponies. If they miss the break and do not secure that singular running style, they are doomed. Based on Defunded's last two performances and his post position, he should roll right out of that gate with ease. If he does, he is going to excel even faster than his last two wins out West. Built perfectly for the 9f test on this track. But he must be on target the second those gates open. He lucked out with his post, he has the heightened bias advantage and 9f is his game. Good for you, Bob.


6 ART COLLECTOR Bernardini - Distorted Legacy (Distorted Humor)

DP = 4-9-11-0-0 (24) DI = 3.36 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 8-4-3-4-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-11-16

  • 6th place at Delmar at 10f. Started disintegrating at the one-mile mark.

Art Collector does his best running on deeper, harder track and has failed on every speed-favoring bias. The last race that he won was at Charles Town, on the lead, with the first two calls posting only 80/91. The previous win was at Saratoga on August 4th, a time when that track was dismissing true speedy types. He excelled there, which is opposite of what thrives for this race. His first two calls on the lead that day were only 87/93. This horse will be nowhere near that lead with the likes of Defunded and Cyberknife's early quickness and even if he does attempt it, his energy distribution will shut him down way before the stretch.


7 SKIPPYLONGTOCKING Exaggerator - Twinkling (War Chant)

DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 8-2-3-11-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-16-19

  • 1st at Gulfstream, 8.5f, stalked in 2nd then lead with high beyers - even pace.

  • 9th at Parx at 9f, ran midpack and uncharacteristically faded

  • 1st at Mountaineer, 9f sloppy track, stalked in 2nd, high beyers - even pace

So many things here. First, the horse is bred perfectly for this race. Being the son of Exaggerator coupled with all of that mare stamina, it is easy to see his perfect balance and the steady and unwavering even pace of his style. This horse does not perform the same if he isn't stalking up front. He doesn't like it, as clearly demonstrated in his PA Derby and Preakness performances. Since he is an even paced horse, he does not have one bias preference but he does perform better on faster tracks, including sloppy tracks, just like his sire.

He is not pace dependent, however he is absolutely dependent on the spot that he settles in if he wants to win. Otherwise, he grabs his board hit and goes home. This guy is 101% better suited, better matched, better equipped, than White Abarrio and even Cyberknife for this race. He is right at home with this bias and has proven that he can perform at the same pace, regardless of how fast or how slow it is early on - BUT HE MUST SETTLE forwardly placed in the early stages. If he does, he easily competes for the win here with the best of them.


8 GET HER NUMBER Dialed In - Fancier (Bernstein)

DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 9-4-7-5-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 20-16-20

  • 2nd place at Aqueduct, 8f, sloppy fast track, high pace figures - even pace.

  • 1st place at DelMar, 6f OC, fast beyers, even pace - useless race

  • 7th place at DelMar, 7f, bombed

  • 2nd place at DelMar, 7f OC - useless race

Short and to the point. Get Her Number excels on a speedy track when he is either up against optional claimers or going a full furlong shorter on a sloppy track. That says it all.


9 LAST SAMURAI Malibu Moon - Lady Samuri (First Samurai)

DP = 7-6-13-0-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77

Mare Profile = 10-1-3-5-10 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.86 Triads = 14-9-18

  • 3rd place at Ellis Park, 8f 70k, fast early beyers, held for second place

Not so sure what he thinks he's going to do at 9f on this bias. I've already used too much space for this entry.


10 CYBERKNIFE Gun Runner - Awesome Flower (Flower Alley)

DP = 0-2-6-0-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.25

Mare Profile = 3-2-5-12-6 Speed = 5 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.45 Triads = 10-19-23

  • 3rd place, Parx at 9f, behind Epicenter by 6-3/4 - came from off the pace trying to duplicate Haskell.

He has the class in his back pocket. He has his record breaking final time in the Haskell. He does not have the bias experience and when he does, he fails. He is pace dependent, whether that is capitalizing off of inferior leads or his high desire for moderate pace above one mile. His last race at Keeneland was very flashy even in defeat. But that was a completely different bias and a full furlong shorter. Cyberknife is a very talented horse, very classy, but he is not advantaged in this race for a win. The favorite is very vulnerable for the trophy but his class cannot be overlooked.

There is a strong possibility that Cyberknife could have had much better success on the fast track at Parx if his connections didn't try to replicate his extraordinary performance from the Haskell, which was a completely different bias. He did well none-the-less to get himself up to that stretch at Parx against the grain. That effort puts him high in contention here and the favorite still plays a big part on that superfecta. Going for the odds elsewhere for the win slot is worth it in this case though. You can spread him and spend, that is the gambler's choice. Class does still have meaning even if the ideal bias isn't there for him.


11 STILLETO BOY Shackleford - Rosie's Ransom (Marquetry)

DP = 3-5-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 0.92

Mare Profile = 7-4-3-3-12 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.70 Triads = 14-10-18

  • 2nd place at Santa Anita, 8.5f, stalked in 2nd, took lead then lost lead.

  • 6th place at DelMar, 10f, no match with Flightline and he is not bred for 10f. - toss race

  • 3rd place at DelMar, 8.5f, stalked in 2nd, held for the board.

  • 4th place at Santa Anita, 10f, stalked in 2nd - again, incorrect distance for his breeding but still hit board.

  • 1st place at Santa Anita, 9f, wired the field, posted best figures of his career. Proper distance, Proper bias.

  • 3rd place at Gulftream (Pegasus), 9f, stalked 4th and 3rd, held his own, Proper distance, proper bias.

This horse has the highest amount of inbred speed on the field. He is not bred for 10f at all, so the two 10f races are both insignificant. This horse hits that board in Grade 1 and Grade 2 races at 9f and under, with 9f being his best distance. His pace figures are off at the 8.5f mark (although he still manages to grab his purse) but he excels with his pace at 9f. He is sitting with the highest M/L odds of the field and this is his distance and this is his bias.

Unfortunately, the horse pulled post 11. This post defeats his style within this particular group. He would have to excel like a freight train out of that gate for position which will overpower his late pace way too much. If Mike Smith does in fact go for it, this will play right into Defunded's hooves and Irad will sit and stalk in second just waiting for Stilleto to give in. A horse coming out of post 11 beating out a Baffert speed demon in post 5 would be strange, wouldn't it? If that actually happens, it probably isn't by chance.

Since November, Stilleto Boy has posted 10 workouts on the AWS at Golden Gate. Training against the grain is awesome in order to build up his endurance which could ensure an explosion when he gets back to the bias that he loves. Being the son of Shackleford, he certainly has it within himself (and the evidence as well) that he wants a fast track at this exact distance. The effects of his training on that adverse bias could be significant and makes this guy an intriguing longshot board hit prospect. Yes, it is a shot in the dark, but he does have a few very nice advantaged points against many on this field. If he is ridden properly, this horse may fly on that track again and secure a piece like he always does on this bias.


12 O'CONNOR Boboman - Torrente de Agua (Touch Gold)

DP = 7-0-13-4-0 (24) DI = 1.29 CD = 0.42

Mare Profile = 9-3-1-6-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.81 Triads = 13-10-17

  • 4th place at Gulfstream, 8.5f G3, did not move from midpack - even pace

  • 1st place at Gulfstream, 8.5f OC, Midpack to 1st - even pace

Stamina horse top to bottom. Did his best to secure a win in an Optional Claiming race which is a full 1/2f shorter than this one, this time against Grade One winners - out of Post 12. I'll end it there.


For the Superfecta:

Highest Advantage: Defunded and Skippylongstocking (main win contenders)

Best Shot for the Upset: Proxy (spread top to bottom)

Most Likely Board Hitter: Cyberknife

The "Just in Case" Low Board Hitters with great odds: Stilleto Boy, Simplification, Ridin with Biden


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