2018 Derby Analysis


<Originally posted at HRF-Online April 2018>


Listed in order of highest inherited chef speed all the way down to highest inherited chef stamina. Mares are taken into account separately for each.

3.10+ Speed Guys

9.00 Snapper Sinclair DP = 10-6-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.30 Mare Profile = 7-7-2-7-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.35 Triads = 16-16-13 Everything inherited from both his Chefs and his Mares is backwards. Notice how the Chefs Profile begins at 10 in his brilliant (4-6f) and then drops to a 6 in Intermediate (7-9f) and continues to plummet to a 4 in Classic (10-12F) distance. The Mare triads also slide backwards. That is really the epitome of a horse who has no chance at 10f, but has a serious chance as being one of those speedster guys who affects the outcome. Not even with an added advantage on a sloppy track does this inheritance make the grade in the Derby.

9.00 PROMISES FULFILLED DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.10 Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16 With the group he is surrounded with in this field, his inheritance falls a bit short for this distance. It’s actually not that terrible - his mares are at least lopsided to stamina even though not so overloaded. But his chef’s profile dips too far down between the Intermediate slots and the Classic slots. And the dip with the 11 in the triads is yet another pitfall. He would be relying 100% on his mares to give him the 10f. A tall order for even a lower chef indexed horse. It is simply a case of too many negatives dotted throughout both profiles. He will however get a huge boost up in ranks on a sloppy surface but I wouldn’t boost too high, maybe just enough to see his gate number at the very bottom of your super ticket.

5.00 AUDIBLE DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mare Profile = 7-7-8-8-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 22-23-19 This guy has a lot of pros and he has a couple of cons. He is loaded in speed with a magnificent set of mare’s numbers. Even though he is loaded in his triads, they do still lean left towards speed though. That is just one concern. There is the Into Mischief thing as well, but I do believe that the 19 in that last slot of his triads will keep him carrying that speed well into the stretch. Then it is left to fate. On a clean surface, this guy actually might need to be used across the board in a super. He is definitely lopsided to speed from all angles, and although the high triads across the board stand alone in this group, there is that possibility of the speed getting the best of him. It is that last 20 or so lengths that may just grab him in the end. By all accounts he should be in that mix quite comfortably, it’s a toss-up on whether he has that little bit of stamina left in reserve to prevail for the win. On a sloppy track the worry should subside about those last 20 lengths. He’s got it with no problem on that surface.Since the very beginning of the preps, Audible's numbers have far surpassed any who have come and gone. His numbers are still far and above all others for the Kentucky Derby.

4.14 FIRENZE FIRE DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18 The numbers are good but not spectacular for the Derby. This guy may have a bit of backing there for a small board hit because he is better equipped at the distance than those 2 speedsters at the top of this list. Realistically, the Mare’s profile actually gives him more stamina, but it gives him less speed. This is the type of profile that sneaks itself into the bottom of a super time and time again, especially on a sloppy track too. He received enough speed from the chefs to compete and his triads do step up as they move along the spectrum but his inconsistency overshadows his 4.14 index and he has way too many high powered speed guys in this category that have the undeniable stamina for the 10f more definitively. Unfortunately, his numbers are not enough.

3.67 STRIKE POWER DP = 10-7-10-1-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.93 Mare Profile = 7-6-3-4-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.21 Triads = 16-13-13 If his triads were reversed he would have had a shot. Best at 9f. Not here.

3.57 VINO ROSSO DP = 5-4-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.88 Mare Profile = 5-3-2-9-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.56 Triads = 10-14-19 A fantastic profile addition to this speed group. Unlike Strike Power above him here, Vino secured a boatload of stamina for the 10f race. His low mare index of .56 nicely counteracts that 3.57 index. Another guy with a gorgeous set-up that MUST have speed ahead of him on the field to compete. His mare triads demand it. There are now 3 colts (Vino, Good Magic, Magnum Moon) with the right amount of speed to compete down the stretch and more than enough inherited stamina to carry that speed as far as they need to go. There is one other (Audible) who has more speed inheritance than the three of them, with gorgeous triads but a slight question on the final lengths of the stretch. The top contenders that are unquestionable with the 10f and who are packing more inherited speed are all referenced right there. As far as configurations for the 10f, Vino has one of the best, now it is a matter of comparing past performances and displayed speed. There may be a couple who may have the upper-hand there at the same optimum distance. Past performances need to be consulted for him and the 2 below him on this list. They are all three very closely knitted together, just as inherited speed and displayed speed is closely knitted together.

3.40 GOOD MAGIC DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 Mare Profile = 4-7-2-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-19-20 This guy still has a huge advantage with his inheritance at 10f. The chefs are spot on, the mare triads give him the distance. No chance of leaving this guy off that super ticket. His best comes further than what he has ridden to date, including his Bluegrass win. His speed inheritance is a bit lacking against a few others who also have what it takes to go the distance. So, pitted against them, head to head, inherited speed matters a great deal in this Derby. Also, breakdown of the speed on the lead would enhance Good Magic’s true inheritance and bolster his advantage. Surface conditions should be spot on either way.

3.27 MAGNUM MOON DP = 8-9-15-0-0 (32) DI = 3.27 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 5-4-3-7-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.61 Triads = 12-14-19 Compares heavily to everything said about Good Magic at this distance. These two have almost everything exactly where it needs to be inheritance-wise for 10f with a field of 20. But Magnum has one extra added bonus (especially on a sloppy surface), a ton of chefs load his profile from 4f to 12f. This guy is one of the most talented on the field and depending on post-position draw, will be well deserving of his lower M/L odds. His inheritance for the standards that the Kentucky Derby requires is right here. Speed inheritance from the Chefs is terrific but just like Good Magic a bit low from his mares. The high 32 points gives him an even greater advantage of scoring on a sloppy Track. Rain or Shine, excellent.

EXACT 3.00 GUYS:

3.00 FLAMEAWAY DP = 8-1-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 9-4-3-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.93 Triads = 16-13-18 The only thing that gives me pause with this guy is that Chefs 5 Digit Profile. He inherited more sprinters blood than he did in the Classic Distance. The 8 in that first slot (Brilliant) is higher than that 6 in the Classic slot. And the 1 in his Intermediate slot keeps that fairly pure. He is actually deceivingly much speedier than that 3.00 index is depicting. His chefs gave him much more additional speed than all of the 3.00 guys under him. For the Derby this is important. Speed dictates, but it needs to be counteracted with enough stamina from the mares to balance it. The 13 in the triads is heartbreaking and could possibly water down that 18 in the longer distance slot. Flameaway is one of two guys in this stacked 3.00 category that truly can go either way with regards to a board hit. He has a few things here that are truly negatives with his breeding for the 10f, especially for a win. He has a few positives though for a board hit and that lies directly with the extra shot of speed from his chefs. Sometimes, when looking at the inheritance a colt has for this particular race, things jump out so easily where you can circle and highlight and put stars all around them or you can easily cross off some without a second thought. Then there are the guys who get 2 question marks next to their names. On the surface, with these numbers, the 10f distance looks to be a challenge here, but under all the right circumstances, a board hit is not out of his pay grade. What stands out to me the most with Flameaway is that the prospect of a serious chance in the Preakness with this dosage set-up, at this moment, is glaringly real. And if he performs to a level that allows him to be a player on the bottom of that super, it may actually hinder his thunder for the Preakness. I truly do not know which way that 13 in the middle of his triads will take him. Does it steal from the speed side or does it steal from the stamina side? It will definitely steal from one of them. If it steals from the 16 in his speed slot, he definitely has a shot at the board in Kentucky. He actually gained enough speed from his chefs and too much more will be detrimental for the distance and it will add more to his stamina side. If it steals from the 18 in his stamina slot, he would have it all for the Preakness. I apologize for writing a lot about this guy because there is truly something here and I know my friends here at this site have a real liking for this guy but I do not see how his numbers could give him a win at this distance up against a few of the players in the upper echelon Speed group. But he is much better equipped than most underneath on this list and he is a great prospect for the Preakness. It could go either way in Kentucky on a clean track. If it is sloppy Derby day, his additional sprinters speed from his chefs will give him much more advantage than 80% of the guys in this category.

3.00 NOBLE INDY DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 10-4-3-4-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.42 Triads = 17-11-13 Since I wrote a ton about Flameaway, I won’t even waste the space. This little guy will be looking at the back of a pack of horses way passed the finish line. He is completely lopsided and backwards for the 10f in the Derby. Triads descend which is opposite of what wins this particular race.

3.00 JUSTIFY DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Mares: DP = 9-4-4-7-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-15-19 Disregarding the hype and looking only at the numbers, his speed inheritance from the chefs matches 8 others on this field. Looking for something, basically anything that is an obvious separation from the couple of standouts in this group just keeps ending in a tie. His triads are not the best of this category but they are certainly better than a few of them. There is nothing that I can find in these numbers that would “justify” the performances to date, nor that would justify the hype either. He is apparently a very talented and special horse in the eyes of his connections and many fans. (Funny how this type of over-hyped "extra special" horse seems to always come from the same barn.) Yes, his numbers set-up is very good but it is not magnificent nor is it “standing out among this crowd.” But there is one thing here that does stand out - the likely strategy of his trainer. If this horse, untested at 2 with just a few races under his belt, is sent out from the gate in Bodemiester fashion to try to wire the field in the Kentucky Derby, there are at least 4 other guys whose advantage will skyrocket in that situation. If kept to stalk and move at the proper time, he runs with the best of them. Hype does not win the Derby. Stellar past performances coupled with what is running in his veins to get him the 10f quickest, and sheer determination wins the Derby. This guy needs to be looked at objectively and without the noise. Realistically, his performances are on point with his inheritance so far. They are good, no question, so too was the performance of Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby or even Magnum Moon in the Rebel and on and on. He did not inherit the highest amount of speed in this category and he certainly did not inherit the highest amount of stamina either. Yes, his numbers give him a shot, but there are better numbers around him. If he tries to wire the field against a few of these guys, his numbers and inheritance won’t get him there. He would have to do that all on his own. The point being is that fireworks on the track is one thing, fireworks in the press or in interviews is another. This is the Kentucky Derby and all that matters is if the horse can get a clean trip going 10f the fastest. Justify is definitely a player but he is certainly not the only player. And as far as the configurations of his speed/stamina balance, his is not the best here. Handicap this horse evenly with all the others. As with every 3.00 entry here, past performances, speed and the ability to run 10f is important. Talk is not. Justify looks as though his numbers will carry him 10f, but there are a few others here who can do that as well. Regardless of all of that, he must be used pretty much across the board because the Baffert “potion” always takes precedence in more ways than one. The numbers are good, but they are certainly not “single on top” worthy in the Kentucky Derby.

3.00 BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16 I have struggled the entire season with this guy’s numbers vs his performances. I have dissected them, twisted them, searched and researched over and over. The combination of the mares and the chefs early brilliant numbers depict an enormous amount of sprinters speed. The mares offer basically nothing in the 7f to 13f range but the chefs offer a ton. As of the writing of this, between all of the 3.00 index and over colts, all the way up to the highest index, only Magnum Moon rivals Bolt with the high amount of Chefs Classic blood. But there is no comparison between the mares. Magnum surpasses him in that regard. This one factor may mean the difference between winning the roses and being content with an honorable mention. With the high amount of points that Bolt received, his horrible triads may not come into play, however, they may in fact actually show up at that top of the stretch in a big way. This keeps Bolt as one of those 3.00 guys with a question mark, like Flameaway. The Chefs numbers across the board are fantastic for the Derby. The mare’s numbers are terrible for the Derby. This is one guy that I will step to the side on as far as a definitive answer on a clear fast track and leave that up to his past performances. The way this colts numbers shake out, it’s a damned if you do and damned if you don’t situation. He is possibly holding the best set of Chefs numbers on the field but his mares numbers are the bottom of the heap. Really bad. As far as a sloppy track, Bolt and Magnum Moon look to be perfect speedy rivals as the high amount of Chefs points (32 each) they both are packing combined with the speed they both have are a very favorable and advantaged tool. On a clear track, there has to be some hesitation because of those triads as far as a win and quite possibly a board hit with this group.

3.00 ENTICED DP = 7-8-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 13-2-3-3-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.19 Triads = 18-8-16 With a 3.00 index smack dab in a field with 8 other peers, sometimes you have to take a stand with the numbers. These numbers fall very short when pitted against his peers. It’s not only that the triads fall short in the classic distance, but they also lean to the speed side as well and this will have an effect on how far he can actually sustain that speed. The 10f distance seems terribly hard here even though he has shown some good grit to get here. Talented horse but the 10f is really pushing it.

3.00 Solomini DP = 6-5-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 4-6-2-6-11 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.53 Triads = 12-14-19 Serious amount of stamina gained in those triads. Here is where those crazy high numbers from the speedsters up above come into play.Solomini is not packing the type of speed needed to win at 10f against the likes of a few of the guys on this field. It takes speed to make it to the wire first. But if those couple of speedsters run the way they were bred to run, Solomini will have a serious advantage because of the stamina dominance in those triads. If the speed is knocked up a notch or two, Solomini will capitalize easily. If one of the speedsters decide to try to pull a Bodemiester move and take it wire to wire at 10f, Solomini will capitalize easily. He needs to be in a nice stalking position because this horse absolutely can go this distance. In this category, he is the Irish War Cry from last year. His 3.00 index is deceiving, just like IWC. Neither were equipped with a ton of inherited speed and they both undoubtedly gained the needed distance. Match that Mares index up against all in this 3.00 slot and none come close. He is holding SERIOUS stamina. The only way he will be able to prevail easily here is if the speed from the sprinters up there on top of the list goes berserk or if a wise guy tries to wire. He also has Belmont numbers to the hilt (just like Irish War Cry did). On a clear track, he will have an advantage with a 20 horse field and an outside post position will not affect the distance capability he is holding. An outside post would be a blessing for a horse bred like this, out of traffic, able to position himself wherever he needs to be,coupled with the needed stamina to run a few wide if need be for quite awhile. On a sloppy track, the stamina dominance in his numbers will affect him a great deal. Speed is the main ingredient for that and unfortunately there are too many contenders much more equipped in that regard. But on a clean track, this guy has the capability to pull an Animal Kingdom move because of those mare’s numbers. His fame and fortune relies heavily on those speed guys. This guy should not be overlooked at this distance on a clean track.

*Addition after Arkansas Derby* - This performance puts a stamp on how this type of configuration can trick one into thinking that a horse who could not win at 1 1/8 and pass the speed at 1 1 /8 would not be able to go the distance of 1 1/4. They view it as being "obviously distance-challenged." This horse has an optimum distance passed 10f. His lack of inherited speed at the Arkansas distance (and under that distance as well ) would cause him to struggle against the speedunder his optimum. It is not the issue of not being able to compete at longer distances, it is the issue of not having the speed to compete at that distance.Notice how lopsided to stamina his triads are and how dominant that 11 is in his Chefs classic spot. The Arkansas was slow, and it underscores the importance of many entries here who need a fast pace and speed ahead of them to be any sort of contender in the Derby. Solomini is far from distance challenged,he is unfortunately not equipped with the inherited speed to compete at shorter distances against those who are and his pedigree demands a fast pace. At 10f, he will still be running comfortably, but this is where the importance of understanding the speed capabilities of those around him and its affect on a horse that can go the distance but slower than many. This will work in his favor in the Belmont.

3.00 GRONKOWSKI DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 7-3-1-4-15 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.51 Triads = 11-8-20 The mares stamina is so over the top that this guy’s apparent speedy 3.00 index is knocked on its side. Going head to head in this overloaded 3.00 category against the same on our home turf is too much to even consider.

THE AVERAGE 2.00 GUYS:

2.78 Hofburg DP = 6-11-16-1-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65 12-4-0-5-11 Speed = 16 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-9-16 On a sloppy track this guy would need to be looked at as a possible on the super due to his gorgeous Chef’s profile and higher total points. On a clear track a bit more scrutiny might be in order. Since his mares profile does separate in two, he would be relying completely on his chefs to get him the 10f distance. The chefs high 11 in the Intermediate category and the 16 in his Classic spot might separate into two as well and leave this guy with an optimum distance that is just shy of the 10f. It is that tight. A favorable position, a clean trip, a great jockey and an out of control lead horse will help. No need to cross him out just yet. It is this type of configuration that can sneak in and grab a piece of the bottom.

2.75 BRAVAZO - DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-3-3-8-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 15-14-16 The index and the triads configuration says it all. Not much of a chance in this race.

2.71 Lone Sailor DP = 5-7-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.65 Mare Profile = 10-2-4-3-11 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 16-9-18 Same as Bravazo.

2.60 Combatant DP = 6-3-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 11-4-2-6-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-12-15 Same as Lone Sailor and Bravazo.

2.50 RERIDE – 2.50 DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 5-4-4-7-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-15-19 This Candy Ride boy has really received a nice set of numbers in spite of that 2.50 index. Everything that I wrote about Solomini up top pertains to this guy as well. Exactly the same. The only difference and factor that needs to be considered between the two of them is the fact that Solomini did not take a long trip across the world.That could have a negative impact on an otherwise potential superstar. Just like Solomini, he did not inherit much speed, (especially from his chefs) and the high amount of stamina gained from both the top and bottom of his chart is outstanding for the Belmont Stakes. If this guy grabs a gate in the Derby by a defection here or there, his numbers pose a serious threat if the speedsters show off in the first 8f of the race, but the Dubai factor would need to be carefully considered if he does. But no need to think too hard about it this early, he does not have his spot yet. Could be a blessing in disguise though. It will give him the needed rest against a couple of others who will be running their hearts out in the Derby. Therein lies the disadvantage for Solomini in the Belmont if Reride shows up there instead. If he does show up in the Derby and it rains, the stamina will hinder him a great deal and possibly deal a blow to an effort in the Belmont.

UNDER 2.00 STAMINA GUYS:

1.80 Mendelssohn - DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64 Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17 First the pros… With regard to the chef’s profile, Mendelssohn has the most impressive chef profile set up in this stamina category. His triad inheritance is magnificent. He runs close to or on the lead. He has conquered all 3 surfaces with total dominance. He has traveled country to country and won them all. He is a stamina horse and he broke a track speed record. His best winning performance to date was on the dirt. He posted the highest Beyer (until Justify's 107 at Santa Anita) out of all of the Derby preps out of this entire field at 106. He has Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore. With all of these points, Mendelssohn could easily be considered the only one on this field that you could confidently single on top. Outstanding in every measure. Unfortunately, there are a couple of cons here that overshadow an easy single on top. Now the cons…

The Kentucky Derby is not the Breeders Cup. Overseas guys on turf in our neck of the woods always have the upper hand. Not the case with the Kentucky Derby. He is still a foreigner and he may exhibit a bit of a setback due to the extra flying and circumstances that surround even the most gifted invader. He has shown a possible enjoyment for flying a couple of times already but unlike other gifted colts going into the gates for this race, he still remains the only one who will have to endure it. Secondly, the performance in the UAE Derby may have been so spectacular that the possibility of leaving the best he had is still back in Dubai. Arguably the best performance from all the Derby preps in years, there must be concern that it may be close to impossible to duplicate that extraordinary effort back to back. In my humble opinion, Mendelssohn is in a league and class all his own with this given field. His dosage configurations and pedigree is severely top notch. I believe he is the most talented and gifted of the bunch. But there is no chance of a confident single with this guy. On a clean track, he must be spread across in every spot due to his magnificent over the top Dubai performance. Just the slightest chance that it took a bit out of him is a chance personally I will not take. The absolute majesty of many of these overseas invaders have burned me on more than one occasion in the past and caution is now a virtue. On a sloppy track, even though stamina horses do not have much success at all, Mendelssohn must still be considered a threat due to his freakish ability to conquer all surfaces. With safety and precaution…completely across the board with him.

1.77 My Boy Jack - DP = 3-2-13-0-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.44 Mare Profile = 13-3-3-4-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.52 Triads = 19-10-14 Not only is this guy’s set-up extremely peculiar, his list of past performances are just as odd. He inherited barely any speed from his chefs, dominant in the classic distance. His inheritance from the mares is completely opposite which makes everything combine in half. His mares were overtly dominate in short early speed. Everything between his mares and his sires combines together (harmoniously) as if from one profile set, not two. I can’t tell if this is really nice or completely chaotic. It’s split in half and then combined… Moving on with the oddness, half of his time spent at the track has been on turf, so half of his races are a toss. In the one race on dirt that he actually won and posted a high beyer figure, 98, he closed from the back of the pack on a sloppy track. “Stamina” horses coming from the back of the pack and closing on a sloppy track is completely odd and very peculiar.His triad numbers are configured just about as odd as you can get. Everything just seems backwards and upside down. I would not say that this guy has any type of advantage against some of those speed guys up there, but something about the oddness of this guy’s set-up against everything else on this field leads me to believe he should be held onto for now. A case could be made that he favors his mares dominate speed at exactly the place where his chefs are dominate – at the classic distance. The huge amount of mare speed could have been the force behind that sloppy victory with such a high beyer. His configurations mimic those guys up top with the high chef speed and the crazy high mare stamina – it’s just in complete reverse. This set-up is very drastic in its configuration and it is this type of colt that is so different from everything else on the field that you just can’t overlook it. There is something here for a shot at the board at the very least. Potential is the best word.

1.74 FREE DROP BILLY DP = 4-4-17-1-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 9-5-2-10-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-17-17 On the surface, his numbers are nicely balanced. The 17 in the Classic distance basically guarantees the distance of 10f and the 9 in the mare’s brilliant category gives him good speed to compete. In his past performances he seems to be favoring those mares up front and early in races and then winding it down in favor of his chefs. In only one race out of his 7, The Holy Bull, did he show off that mare speed and reserve it until late in the race. He would need to do that to be any kind of a player in the Kentucky Derby. With so many entries in this year’s Derby that do that every time on their own, the roll of the dice on Free Drop going against his grain is way too big of a gamble.

1.59 INSTILLED REGARD DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32 Mare Profile = 6-4-7-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.79 Triads = 17-17-21 This guy has received the highest amount of inbred stamina on the field. His mare set up both in the profile and the triads is actually the best configurations of this stamina group.After his win in the Lecomte, he appeared to be in a well suited position to capitalize on his ability and potential to outrun the speed he was entered against. He appeared to be outrunning his numbers, which by all accounts, top and bottom, is overloaded in stamina. The numbers, top and bottom are actually gorgeous. What he lacks in inherited speed from his chefs is nicely offset by that 17 in the first slot of the triads.Both profiles are beautifully arranged and he always had the potential to be a champion from these set-ups. They combine perfectly for the Derby. But when looking at it objectively and on the scale of these 20 guys, the list begins with the colt who has the highest amount of chef inbred speed and it descends all the way down to the horse who has the highest amount of chef inbred stamina. Right now, that list starts with Promises Fulfilled (if Snapper doesnt somehow get in) and go all the way down to this guy. The two extremes so to speak. A case could made that being on the highest plateau of the two ends is very favorable and generally in "normal" graded stakes races under 10f, these two areas would be considered highly advantaged. At 10f in the Kentucky Derby, these 2 extremes have serious disadvantages. It is easy to see why the high speed would be difficult for a guy bred like Promises Fulfilled at this distance. Of course, not enough stamina inheritance to compete at 10f. It is harder to distinguish just by the numbers if the highest inbred stamina horse has the speed to compete against those in the top category (the 3.10 and higher guys) who are also packing the right amount of stamina - FROM THEIR MARES - to go 10f. (Vino, Good Magic, Magnum Moon). It is a very tough position to be in for Instilled Regard because the Derby demands BOTH. The top and bottom of Instilled Regards numbers both lean to stamina. The .32 CD from the Chefs allows Instilled to run as far as he wants, especially at a slow pace for a good portion of the race. He reserves his speed til the end. It will be there down along the backstretch, but when it does surface, he most likely will not have the position to use it properly, whereas the speed guys (who are equipped with the stamina to continue) will be too much to overcome. This guy has one of the better configurations on the list. And if pushed to show his speed in the first 2 calls like he did in the Lecomte, he could very well be a player in this particular race. He has the stamina to keep going and he has one of the best Triad configurations on the field. His disadvantage comes with his early numbers which affect the first call. He must overcome that first against this field because he does have the late numbers to compete here.

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