The Jockey Club Gold Cup has always been one of my favorite races, but it's hard to get too excited about this year's rendition. The favorite, Diversify, looks awfully tough on paper so the prospects of a big score on the race are slim.
Lets look at the field.
1. Carlino
At first glance he looks impossibly overmatched in here, but his race at Saratoga the day before the Travers was pretty nice. He had to come from dead last in that one and the pace was similar to that of the Travers the next day. No one closed at all in the Travers except Catholic Boy, so I don't blame them for taking a shot in here. He can run all day, so the distance won't be a problem, most of the field will probably get tired chasing Diversify on the front, and he has a good post. It's hard to see him winning, but he could definitely hit the board at a price. He will be on most of my tickets.
2. Gronkowski
I loved him in the Travers, but he never ran a lick. He should get the perfect inside stalking trip while everyone is chasing Diversify, but it's hard to get excited about him. He'll be over bet because of Brown and he'll have to run down Diversify who should be loose on the lead. He loves the distance, so that's no problem, but other than that freak out in the Belmont, what's he done? He's been training well and today is probably now or never, but I can't see it.
3. Mendelssohn
Had everything his own way in the Travers and still melted when Catholic Boy showed up. He set a soft pace on a track favoring speed and couldn't hold on. How's he going to chase Diversify all the way around and still hold off the closers? I must admit I didn't like him in the Travers and he was part of a nice exacta, but I don't like him here either. His race in the UAE Derby is probably the most over hyped, misunderstood race of the year. I'm prepared to eat crow, but he will not be on my tickets!
4. Patch
He has a catchy name and a nice back story, but he's won two races in his life and I don't think this is going to be number three. There are some scenarios where I can envision him hitting the board, but it's almost impossible to see him winning this. I'll pass on Patch.
5. Uno Mas Modelo
He is a very fast sprinter as his last three races will attest, but how's he going to go a mile and a quarter with Diversify? He could play a role in the race if he hooks Diversify early and softens him a bit, but there is nothing to suggest that he can win a Grade 1 at a mile and a quarter. He will be purely a pace factor. No thanks.
6. Diversify
See picture above as the reigning champ returns to the scene of the crime. The rest of the field has one hope and that is for Uno Mas Modelo to make Diversify run harder than he wants to early. It should be noted that he runs pretty fast on cruise control without being pushed, so beating him will be a tall order for this field. It is very easy, indeed, to see him front wiring this field the same way he front wired better horses last year. Impossible to leave off your tickets and the most likely winner.
7. Discreet Lover
I consistently underestimate this horse. He's very good at showing up late after Diversify runs the contenders off their pins. He has to be thrown in underneath because he always seems to pass the tired horses at the end.
8. Thunder Snow
The wild card! I don't know what to make of his last at York where he ran last on the grass, but his best could get a major piece in here. He should get a nice outside stalking trip and might even have a chance to win if Diversify has to go too fast early. I think it's more likely that he will be the one moving at Diversify in the lane and will probably finish second.
There you have it. Not the most exciting Jockey Club on paper and it's hard to imagine anyone other than the six or the eight winning. The key to the race for me will be the one horse. If I can get Carlino into the trifecta (second is what I'm hoping for), then I will be a happy camper. I'm boxing 1-6-8!
Good luck to all who are playing!
I agree with Diversify. Extremely hard to beat. He has proven time and again that he can go the distance with his speed intact at 10f. I'm singling him on top as I would imagine most would. I adore Mendelssohn and Thunder Snow and I think their class and style will allow them to be there in the stretch. This leaves the 4th guy and I gotta say, both from a breeding standpoint and from an odds standpoint, I am using Uno Mas Modelo on the bottom. I love a nice longshot who has never run at the distance and who goes un-noticed with the right stuff. He may falter because of class but with a small field of 8 and the way he runs late coupled with his breeding says he goes the distance. I am not sure if he is way over his head as far as class but his numbers are spectacular for the 10f. He may just slide in there and grab that 3rd or 4th spot. I'll take the shot only because of the odds. His numbers:
Chefs: DP = 6-4-6-0-0 (16) DI = 4.33 CD = 1.00
Mares: 5-5-6-11-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.84 Triads = 16-22-21
If this were the Kentucky Derby at 10f, I'd be all over that! But it is not, it is up against top notch high class tested horses so at the very least, I gotta give him some respect and hope that his late killer speed kicks in against these monsters and he can at least grab something in the end. The high degree of chef speed coupled with the fantastic amount of stamina gained from those mares is a good gamble. Low risk, high reward. Cheap ticket so I hope to see a longshot invade the party, but I wont rely on him just in case the class factor gets the best of him.
My ticket:
1st - Diversify
2nd - Mendelssohn - Thunder Snow
3rd - Mendelssohn - Thunder Snow - Uno Mas Modelo - Discreet Lover
4th - Mendelssohn - Thunder Snow - Uno Mas Modelo - Discreet Lover
No question about Diversify, but I'm going to try Thunder Snow. I really want to see Mendelssohn have that break through run as well.
And then there's Gronkowski, who I have such a soft spot for. What to do.
Good luck! It should shake things out a little for the BC. I'll keep my eye on Uno Mas Modelo Lisa. He was one of my first toss outs so maybe I can learn something. Wouldn't care if Gronk or Mendelssohn wins; I'm not betting much. Belmont card was decimated early today with scratches. Maybe later will be better.
Its worth the shot at those odds, especially if Diversify and Mendelssohn go at it. His late running is unmatched here coupled with his breeding. Worth the few bucks just in case. Im at the point where I am sick and tired of missing the super by one!
Super??! Too sophisticated for me, like really Lisa, this is hard & have no idea what to do & too many are genuine contenders. The thousands that I made betting Imperial Hint & Channel Maker to win will go down the toilet in the JCGC. Betting your favourites at the last minute only goes so far. Thunder Snow is in, as is Diversify, Gronk. Gentle one eyed Patch is again disadvantaged , he needs to be in the 1 post. Thunder Snow for me after post parade, eeesh. Hard call.
Hard!
Honestly, Gronk is a stud in the making.
Git outta town. Manny timed it perfectly. Thank God that after betting the farm I didn't have time to bet. The farm & chickens & pigs would've been down the tubes. Amazing race. 7 8 3 2.
However, Thunder & Mend were pretty good. Very nice for Discreet Lover & his people.
Hmm, this is wonderful Lisa, I'm getting that "Lisa111 is typing" Wonderful notification, I can feel the keyboard sparking from here. Will patiently wait.
Lisa111 is still typing...
Wow!! Diversify off the board!! Mendelssohn holds on to grab his piece! Thunder Snow kicks it up in USA. The closer, Discreet Lover! Uno Mas had nothing. Shoulda Woulda Coulda. Shoulda kept my top 4 and boxed them in the Tri.
Mendelssohn is really really talented. He ran with Diversify and didnt let go. He didnt give it up like Diversify. Even though he only grabbed a 3rd, I think his performance was the best on that field.
The Breeders Classic - Accelerate/ Catholic Boy/ Mendelssohn/Thunder Snow. I'm done.
You crack me up Anna! LOL!!!!
AnnaK is typing... There she goes!
My poor little tired laptop is dinging to beat the band, what a race! I feel bad for Diversify because he's such a good horse, but Mend ....okay yes Anna is typing amid the dinging--- haha, funny, we need a chat page. Mend & thunder showed real steel .Crazy good race
I had a chat page but nobody used it. I will add it back. Do you think I should?
I will use it and make up for everyone else. I start pacing and get just a bit feverish. So yes please Lisa, even if its only me. Either that or I go out & start shouting at the squirrels. Please.
Thunder Snow and Mendelssohn have the most incredible breeding (besides Le Vent Se Leve) that I have seen in years and the fact that they can rip up the track on this side of the pond makes them even greater. I may have a serious bias for overseas horses but the way they are bred and the way they run is just fantastic.
I dont think Diversify is out of the picture because of this race. He just ran into the wrong guy at the wrong time. Mendelssohn gave him his fight like no one has done and Mendelssohn won. Says alot about that horse. The fact that he, a bonafide stamina horse, was the one who took the lead and smashed that UAE Derby says alot about the caliber of that guy.
Absolutely! I will add the chat back. It will be on the menu.