Handicapping the Iowa Oaks

Last Year's Iowa Oaks winner, Shane's Girlfriend, at the Fairgrounds meet.

The Grade 3 Iowa Oaks will be run on July 5th this year and has drawn a nice field of ten fillies. A few of these have been chasing Monomoy Girl early this year, and they will certainly find the competition here a little more to their liking.

Lets look at the field.

1. Hold Her Tight

Run off her feet earlier this year in the 8Belles, a Grade 2 run the day before the Derby. That was a very fast early pace and I would cut her some slack for the folderoo. All her other races have been good, including her last over this track in a 65k Handicap. There are others I like more in here, but she will get a ground saving trip from the rail and should be passing horses late. If they go too fast early (there is some speed in here), she could hit the board.

2. She's Our Fastest

Won her last, a 65k Handicap, against a field of 5 at Lone Star. Before that, she ran second to the 8 horse in here (Terra's Angel) in another 5 horse field. She draws inside and will get the inside stalkers trip, but I can't see her beating this field.

3. Baydar

Claimed out of a 10k NW2 lifetime June 15th on this track. She won that race by 20 lengths and cast a spell on her connections. They now have dreams of glory. She went extremely slow early in that race, so she came home ok, but she won't get that trip here. I can't see it.

4. She's a Julie

Was not embarrassed in the Grade 2 Fairgrounds Oaks and showed brief speed against Monomoy Girl in the Grade 2 Rachel Alexandra. Gets welcome class relief here and could be a factor as the main inside speed. If she clears the horse to her immediate inside, and Terra's Angel and Sassy Siena to her outside decide to sit, she could be a handful.

5. Cosmic Burst

She's been duking it out with Sassy Siena and they both have Grade 3 wins from their matchups. She got the Honeybee and Sassy Siena got the Fantasy. The Fantasy was in the slop and I don't think she got the right trip that day, but on a dry track, she will be a big factor in here. This is a very nice filly and she will take a world of beating in here. I expect her to win.

6. Rayya

The wild card! Why does Baffert always have the wild card? She chased Mendelsson in the UAE Derby and held second, though you would've needed the Hubbell Telescope to find her some 20 lengths back. The front end and the rail were the places to be in Dubai this year and she sat the rail trip behind Mendelsson the entire way. Huge disappointment in the Kentucky Oaks after taking a ton of money. Even though she's working great, I'm taking a stand against her. She will be off the board.

7. Testing One Two

She ran the speed and fade versus Monomoy Girl in the Rachel Alexandra, but there is no shame in that. This is a very nice filly. She's won 5 of 7 and showed some grit against the leader of the division. I expect her to be around at the finish.

8. Terra's Angel

She has shown really big improvement in her last two versus a couple of small fields and gets the acid test in here. Has a good deal of speed and may be pressing the pace with the 4 in here (She's a Julie). She was beaten soundly by Cosmic Burst earlier, but speed horses always have a chance if they can clear. I think She's a Julie, Baydar, Testing One Two, and Sassy Siena will compromise her chances on the front end.

9. Sassy Siena

Another one in here who has seen the view from behind Monomoy Girl. She's a solid filly and showed some determination in the muddy Fantasy, but that was a strange race with Amy's Challenge opening up on the field and they were all staggering late; but she did stagger home best. I'm going with Cosmic Burst in this repeat of their head to head competition.

10. Tell Your Momma

The connections for this filly must be very high on her or maybe just crazy. This maiden has tried the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies (Gr 1), and the Black Eyed Susan and the Gulfstream Oaks (Gr 2's). She has been buried in those attempts. Oh, and she's also lost 8 other MSWs. Zero for 11 and counting, she now tries a Grade 3 against proven stakes caliber from the far outside. No thanks.

The most likely winner is Cosmic Burst who figures to get a nice stalking trip behind the speed.

I will also be using Hold Her Tight, She's a Julie, and Testing One Two in combinations with Cosmic Burst.

Good Luck if you're playing this one!