This is the time of the year when you can handicap a six furlong sprint and find that the entire thirteen horse field is stretching out. I love to handicap these two year old races, even though it's like tip-toeing through a minefield. Let's take a look at these precocious babies.
1. Shanghied Roo
He draws the rail in a Churchill sprint which is never bad. He figures to get the ideal trip tracking the leaders in a field packed with 4 1/2 furlong speedsters. If he can secure the rail behind the early speed, he will take a lot of beating. He is the most likely winner.
2. Weiland
He will be out there winging with several others in here. If he can secure the lead on the rail, he will be plenty tough. Great workout on June 9th.
3. Baytown Glory
Wired a small field in a slow time and seems overmatched in here. Might be a brief pace factor.
4. Sir Truebadour
Wired a small field in his first race, then hung a bit in his last. Appears better bred for grass than dirt. He will be a pace factor but probably overbet.
5. Mr. Chocolate Chip
Big improvement 2nd out wiring a small field at Belterra, but this is a big step up. He will be a probable pace factor but doesn't figure to last long.
6. The Song of John
Decent in his maiden breaker, but came home very slow. Facing much tougher here.
7. Eye Cloud
Broke his maiden at Evangeline Downs, but these are so much tougher. May do better on grass later.
8. Mr. Granite
Embarrassed by some of these earlier, but then broke his maiden wire to wire at Presque Isle with blinkers added. He will be a pace factor. If he clears early, he could get a piece at a long price.
9. Tales of Chaucer
Ran a very fast race in the mud at Belmont. He is working lights out and will certainly take some beating in here. As we work are way further and further outside, it does get tougher on the speed horses.
10. Dalliance
He has run three pretty solid races though none of them was very fast. He has an excellent three furlong breeze in preparation for this and he figures to get a reasonable outside stalking trip in here. Though not the most likely winner, he will be on all my tickets.
11. Toothless Wonder
He is one of the main speeds and will be out there winging. It's asking a lot for him to clear and get over to the rail in here, but if he does he could be long gone.
12. Cat Addiction
The closer in a field packed with speed, but he is moving up and has a terrible post.
13. Overanalyzer
Nice maiden breaker at Indiana Downs, but these are tougher. He has an awful post, but if he can tuck in without losing too much ground, he could be in the superfecta.
With all the speed in here, I see Shanghied Roo as the horse to beat. He should get the perfect inside stalking trip. I will also be using Dalliance and Overanalyzer on some wagers.
Good luck everybody!
Hi punter12
Nice analysis on the Bashford Manor. I like Cat Addiction, at 15-1. His Dosage Index of 5.00, is the highest in the field, which is not surprising. Both sides of his pedigree are speed oriented, with his sire, Tales of the Cat and his broodmare sire, Yes It's True, as examples. Granted, his post position could work against him, but if he can secure a postition, at mid-pack, coming out of the first turn, he has shown the ability to close impressively.
Although I'm not a fan of Leparoux, (on dirt), I like Tales of Chaucer, as my second choice and Toothless Wonder, as my third choice.
Good luck with Shanghaied Roo
Thanks. Good luck with your choices as well. Never a bad thing to take the closer in a field full of speed, but you will need to go around twelve horses. Tough assignment, but certainly possible. These races that are packed with what I call cheap speed are tough to figure. If one of the quality speeds (Toothless Wonder, Tales of Chaucer, or Weiland) can clear, it could be sayonara. Good luck!
Shanghaid Roo is a stamina horse who is showing serious speed going short. I looked at the last 5 years results of the Bashford (lack of time to keep going) and found that no horse under a 2.00 chef index has cracked the top 3 finishers. Roo has a 1.40 index but his mares triads are gorgeous for the race: 16-21-22. He looks vulnerable to me for the win.
Sir Troubadour is also in the exact same vein as Roo. He has shown serious speed for a stamina guy with his 1.67 index and his 16-18-20 Triads. No matter the outcome of the race, these 2 guys appear to be outrunning their numbers at the short distances they are performing at. But again, none with these configurations hit the trifecta in the last 5 years. They seem like they will be strong players at longer distances and if they do grab a piece, they will be 2 to keep an eye on.
Tales of Chaucer appears to be the bad-ass of the field. Stamina boy 1.67 index with 19-17-20 triads. Fast as lightening at a short 5f distance, wires the field on a sloppy track. That is a 2 year old stand-out. That is what running against his numbers is all about. This guy will get better and better with each further distance conquered. His post position may make him stalk the pace which will be good for him n terms of learning. This is a very fast stamina horse with serious numbers and looks to me that he is the star even though these numbers have done nothing in this race in at least 5 years. I'll use him in my super. Absolutely.
The best sets of numbers for the Bashford are:
Toothless Wonder - Chefs 3.00 with 12-16-17 triads. Yes. Yes. Yes. Boxed in the super.
Dalliance - Chefs 3.00 with 17-21-18 Triads. (The negatives outweigh his numbers though - Two AWS races and one sloppy race.)
This guy is on the cusp - could be a player depending on how fast that bias is playing.
Weiland - Chefs 4.33 with 19-15-15 triads.
Cat Addiction has a nice 5.00 chef index for the speed needed at this distance, however, the triads are dismal for this particular race. 16-12-14. The reason they are not good is because at this distance, these little guys will be sprinting basically the entire race. The ones who have the mare stamina have the edge. There is no doubt that Cat Addiction has the most inherited speed on the field, but to sustain it the way he will need to is very iffy.
I'm looking at Tales of Chaucer - Toothless Wonder - Weiland for the top.
I'll use Roo, Traubadour and Mr. Granite down on the bottom.
Hi Lisa, and ALL
I've heard rumblings that Tales of Chaucer might scratch out of the Bashford, and point to the Rockville Centre Stakes, at Belmont, against fellow New York breds. Norm Casse is expected to make a decision by Friday.
Morn Lisa and all ...
Following up on Lisa's info ....
I looked at the last 5 years results of the Bashford (lack of time to keep going) and found that no horse under a 2.00 chef index has cracked the top 3 finishers. Roo has a 1.40 index but his mares triads are gorgeous for the race: 16-21-22.
No horse in the last 12 years has won with a DI under 2.00
Last 6 Years ... no horse with Mare Index of below 0.82 has won this race
Horses under the 0.82 this year
Shanghaied Roo 0.71
Sir Truebadour 0.70
Mr Chocolate Chip 0.68
Eye Cloud 0.77
Since 1991 ..Last 27 Years ... No Horse with below 10 Chef Points has won this race ...
Solid stuff guys !!! Hope one us hits ... throw me a few chops if u hit it big ....just messin ...
Horses below 10 Chef Points this year
Weiland 8
The Song of John 8
Tales of Chaucer 8
Overanalyzer 8
Last 5 Years Chef CD above 0.70 with the Winners
Horses below the 0.70 CD this year
Shanghaied Roo 0.42
Sir Truebadour 0.58
Mr Chocolate Chip 0.57
Eye Cloud 0.55
Tales of Chaucer 0.63
Toothless Wonder 0.69
Overanalyzer 0.50
Last 12 Years Chef CD was above 0.58
Horses below the 0.58 this year
Shanghaied Roo 0.42
Mr Chocolate Chip 0.57
Eye Cloud 0.55
Overanalyzer 0.50
My Leans
Numbers 12 , 11 on top ... playing some gimmicks with these two ...
Feedback appreciated !! GL !! ... Not around most of the day ....