Let's look at the field for the 2019 Holy Bull.
1. Garter and Tie
Could not keep up with Mihos in the Mucho Macho Man, but he draws the rail in here and is definitely not out of it. He is a true rags to riches story as his sire stands for $2,500. Nicks is a sharp trainer and this one will sit the ideal rail stalkers trip in here. Should be on all your tickets.
2. Federal Case
Won his 1st two for fun, but his allowance win was against just four horses, so be careful about over estimating that one. With all the other speed signed on here, he just seems like too much of an ask. I'll pass.
3. Epic Dreamer
Beat Mihos in his maiden opener where he ran 2nd, then came back with a nice win in his 2nd start. Suffered through a nightmare trip at Remington in a race with a $400k purse and now shows up here. Irad takes the mount and he should get the inside stalkers trip with the 1 horse. I'm using him.
4. Everfast
He's shown absolutely nothing since his maiden breaker and he's hard to like in here. He would be a real shocker, but I can't see him.
5. Harvey Wallbanger
Has run four pretty steady races and finally broke his maiden last time, but his breeding says more turf than dirt to me and I just don't think he can contend in here. I'll pass on the Galliano and on Harvey Wallbanger.
6. Mihos
Made a huge move to mow them down in the Mucho Macho Man at this track, his numbers keep going up, and he has the right style to sit a trip. He will take some beating and is very hard to leave out.
7. Come on Gerry
He'll be out there winging, but unless he clears and gets the rail, this is a tall order. A nice longshot play if you think someone other than the 8 can wire them, but I think the class hike alone will do him in. No thanks.
8. Maximus Mischief
The obvious play in here. All three races were easy wins on the engine with high speed numbers, but I have some reservations. In his three wins he's beaten a total of fourteen horses, there is plenty of other speed in here, and it's hard to clear from the outside at Gulfstream. I can't blame those who like him, but I'm playing against.
9. Gladiator King
He shows a tendency to quit when challenged, two of his three wins are on grass, and there is plenty of speed in here. I give him no chance.
10. Going for Gold
The maiden on the outside has shown good early speed, but he has almost no chance to clear the other speed horses in here. I can't see it.
I think the key to the race is all the early speed that is signed on. I suppose the 8 horse could simply blast to the front and ease on down the road, but I don't see it that way. I'll be boxing the 1-3-6 in exactas and tri's and betting the 1 to win. Good luck to all who are playing!
Good luck on your bet tomorrow. I am taking a break from the gamble tomorrow because I made a complete mess of the Pegasus last weekend!!! Sometimes you justa gotta face reality, take a breather and just sit back and watch them run without the stress!!! I did the same thing last year - I just couldnt connect right with anything because I have Derby on the brain for 5 months straight.
There are 2 horses in this race that I have my eye on as contenders for the Derby & the Belmont which does not always translate to having the right stuff for this particular race. Best for me to just watch them closely and not worry about hitting a ticket!
Lisa, as a former follower of Steve Roman's, Chef-De-Race website ( too bad about him ending his association with HR due to PED's) and a new follower to your amazing insight, I am gratefully appreciative of your passion and astute dosage knowledge that you impart to us followers. Thank you.
Now that I am starting to brush off winter dust, I'm slowly digging my teeth into the Derby prep season and am looking at today's races. Lisa, you can't make us "wait for it' , curious as to who you are eyeing?
The Holy Bull is loaded with ton's of speed. I get it, that you want a breather, BUT we need to hear from you as to your hunch on who will either withstand the early heat, or close like a freight train!
Just peeking at the PP's I think "Freak" Maximus will shake off the speedsters on top w/Federal Case, Mihos, and Epic Dreamer falling in behind!
Thank you so much for joining our little club here! And the fact that you followed the Chef-de-race website makes you my immediate best friend!!!!!! LOL!!! That site was the greatest especially around Derby time. My whole world crashed when that went away.
Anyway, I have my eye on Come on Gerry but more so for the 10f Derby and not necessarily this race however he certainly kicked ass in his last getting closer to his optimum. He certainly has all of the right numbers with a ton of potential but Im not sure this is his spot yet. But I want to see how he handles this distance and if he comes home fast like he did in his last again. There is something about a "speed" horse who wires the field but gets faster the longer he runs. I love both of his profiles for the Derby which is not the race that is running today so I just wanna see how he goes today. He's got a real hard case against Mihos and Maximus Mischief but if he can find a way to get a board hit, I think his best comes a little further.
The other guy I wanna see run today is Federal Case. Todays distance is his optimum. So, he should be ready to show us his best today. I do not like him at all for the Derby but this is the type who shines between 1 and 1 1/8th.
(And I also think Epic Dreamer has a shot at that board too!)
@Lisa111 You're the best! Thanks for the reply. I loved dosage bombs from Steve R.,
In The Robert B Lewis, I love Magnificent McCool's mare side. aka. Secretariat so I'm intrigued with how he races today.
I really think Maximus is a poor play at a short price. In his Remsen they walked to the half in 50 and change, then he hit them with back to back 24s for an easy win. In his allowance win he beat TWO horses! The pace of this race will be much faster than anything he's seen and quite a few of them have just as much early lick as he does. This is one of those situations where I can see him possibly popping them, but it isn't as likely as those three races make it seem; and he's a short price to boot. My approach is to always look to beat the favorites when they have any chinks in their armor, so I can't use him. I'm ready to take it on the chin if he wires them, but I will be very surprised, as well as a little bit lighter in the wallet.
Lisa, needs to chirp in here about Maximus, since Maria's Pride by Marias Mon had some Derby progeny, she'll know way more if his mare side is palatable. His works are brilliant.
Punter, I agree with you about Chalk, I too try to beat it, but I think Maximus is different unlike last year's fav - Enticed, who bit it! Personally when placing wagers I have a RULE to always BOX 1st then wheel 2nd. Good Luck!
I did do a little write up on Maximus Mischief on the Derby Preps Tab. I always do a small write up on each prep winner the day after the race. This guy has a ton of inbred speed both from his mares and his chef but since he only has one chef in his entire chef profile, Unbridled, he is either going to do one of two things. He will either gravitate to his overloaded mare inheritance and smash everything in his path or he will allow other sires who are not listed as chefs break into that party and affect things. This leaves his chefs profile somewhat up in the air. I personally think that he is pretty much unbeatable here today. His surface numbers are perfect for this distance. Dropping down from his last only makes him that much more the favorite for a reason.
OM MY GOD!!! This is why I stay away!!! What the heck was that???!!!!
Had a feeling Maximus was vulnerable, but two of the horses I liked least are the ones who went by. Took another one on the chin. Just have to pick myself up and get back in the race.
You are not alone with that one. And they live to fight another day!