This year's edition of the Fountain of Youth has drawn an outstanding cast and will create or destroy several Kentucky Derby dreams (hopefully, not mine). Lets look at the field.
1. Code of Honor
He immediately broke his maiden on the engine against a nice group at the Spa last summer going six furlongs. He stood out because he is regally bred to run all day at any distance, but he won that sprint wire to wire. Thrown into the Champagne off that maiden win, he stumbled at the start, was shuffled back to last, then made an electrifying sweep past everyone but the winner to get second. The buzz had begun!
He missed some training with some minor physical issues and finally showed up in the Mucho Macho Man at this track in January. He ran a clunker and finished 4th as the favorite. A closer look at that race shows he slammed into Gladiator King coming out of the gate, dropped back to last seven or eight lengths back, then made a four wide middle move into the fastest part of the race and hung. He draws the rail in here and I hope Johnny V doesn't push him early. He should sit the inside stalkers trip and mow them down in the lane. It is put up or shut-up time if he wants to make the Derby. He is my pick to win!
2. Epic Dreamer
He almost wired the Holy Bull at this track on February 2nd, but fell back to 4th in the last eighth of a mile. He will be compromised by the other speed in this race and seems unlikely to clear as easily as he did in the Holy Bull.
He will be a pace factor in here, but so will a half dozen others. He has a chance to hit the board if he lays off the other speed, but I think he's more likely to vie for the front and do another stretch fade.
3. Gladiator King
He collided with my pick at the start of the Mucho Macho Man where he ran a speed and fade, then got buried in the Holy Bull. I give him no chance.
4. Bourbon War
He broke his maiden at first asking in a mile race at Aqueduct in a field of nine when he gobbled them up late. This is a nice horse. He ran a credible 4th to Maximus Mischief in the Remsen, then easily passed his NW1 test at this track in his last at a mile and a sixteenth on January 18th. Now he returns to tougher competition.
He has a big shot in here because he will be sitting at the back while all the speeds try to tackle Hidden Scroll on the front end. He will certainly be running by the fading speed horses in the stretch and should be on all your tickets!
5. Vekoma
Easily broke his maiden at first asking in race horse time, then followed it up with an even faster win in the Nashua. This horse could be any kind. He does not need the lead which will work to his advantage with all the speed in here. Hard not to like him a little bit, but I am committed to the one horse. Beware the undefeated horse! He will be on my tickets!
6. Signalman
He has done nothing wrong while racking up a half million against very stiff competition. He was 3rd in the Juvenile, won a grade 2 in his last, and has the right running style for this race. I'm taking a stand against him (you can't bet them all), but he has a nice resume.
7. Hidden Scroll
The wild card! His maiden breaker was one of those races where you just say, "WOW!" If he can repeat that race here, they may all be running for 2nd. Still, I've learned over the years to be skeptical of those flashy front end wins, especially when they are in the mud. I anticipate a very fast pace in here and it's asking an awful lot for this lightly raced horse to put away all the speed and still hang on against the closers. I'm going to pass.
8. Global Campaign
He's two for two at this track and undefeated, but this is a tall task from this post with all the speed in this race. I just think he's too wide on an inside speed favoring track and he hasn't shown the ability to rate yet. I'm going to pass.
9. Everfast
He has been soundly beaten by both Bourbon War and Signalman and I see nothing that indicates he's ready to reverse that trend. No thanks.
10. Frosted Grace
He will be a pace factor, especially since he'll have to gun it from out here, but with Hidden Scroll to his inside along with all the other speed, I can't see it. I'll pass.
11. Union's Destiny
They're kidding, right?
This figures to be a bang up race. There are five or six front end types that will insure a fast pace (assuming that Hidden Scroll doesn't just run away from them) and some high quality stalkers and closers. I'm betting that Honor Code redeems himself here (if not, it's back to the drawing board for a Derby horse). I'll be betting the one horse to win and using 4-5-6 in all the exotics. Good luck to all who are playing!
I would single Code of Honor but I just dont like the track for him. I really want that horse to win. Im probably gonna do a super boxed with Global Campaign, Bourbon War, Vekoma and Code of Honor but I still need more time to work on it. Hopefully the boy breaks well, stays out of everyones way and stays close to that rail. Should be a great race.
I changed my mind on this race completely last night. Going in a totally different direction.
Im going back to Hidden Scroll and Im looking at using Union's Destiny with Code of Honor.
Still working on the 4th guy for the super. Maybe Im crazy but it has to do more with linebreeding stuff that I have been working on and I wanna see if there is any merit to it.
Wow! If Union's Destiny shows up I will be flabbergasted! I will also want to know how you came up with him. However, I was shocked with the Harvey Wallbanger/Epic Dreamer exacta, so you have to take my opinion with a large dose of salt. I won't be shocked if Scroll wires them, but I will be mildly surprised. He has an outside post on a track that favors the inside and there is plenty of speed to his inside. If he gets it done in here, then he is really something special. I don't like him at all. Good luck!
Actually, I was just going to ask Lisa about Union's Destiny since his mare side is ridiculous. He posted an excellent race @ GP and has a great recent work. Check out Ms. Anna Destiny's bloodlines! If Ton's of speed which looks apparent, we could see Union's Destiny get pieces i.e Harvey - Epic who blew up the Holy Bull.
Absolutely love Code of Honor and Hidden Scroll , but the most consistently proven horse in the race that can handle speed up front and finish is Signalman! Good Luck
.10c Super $14 1-5-6-7/1-5-6-7/1-5-6-7-9-11/1-5-6-7-9-11. Also going with an Ex Key Box 1-5-6-7/1-5-6-7-9-11
Unions Destiny last race was actually very good, just like Michele said. At Gulfstream unfortunately he kicked it into overdrive right out of the gate. He ran fast and even though he went way too fast at the start, he didnt drop his thunder like a ton of bricks like some of the rest on that field. He continued on and stayed fairly steady. He wont be in a position this time to gun it like that and if he can rate and find a spot, he may be able to stay steady and bypass the rush of the speed demons out front who will most likely burn out. I like his balanced profile for this race. I dont like him for a win but I like that balance for a board hit with this particular group. The guy has serious stamina and if this race is run as fast as I think, he may be able to capitalize because of how he is built. Plus, he's right at home and as much as I adore Code of Honor, he has no advantage on this track. The only advantage he has is the rail post, but he wont have it for long. I'm going back and forth between Bourbon and Signalman as the 4th guy. I'll know 5 minutes before post I guess!
There is something about the linebreeding of Union's Destiny that is standout out along with Hidden Scroll that I want to see in action. It is something that I have been really looking at as it pertains to champion breeding. We shall see how it goes. Generally as a rule I do not like to put a ton of interest in a colt who does well on the slop in a previous race but with the breeding of Hidden Scroll that goes against a romp in the slop, there looks to be something to grab onto here for today. He is also holding that balanced pedigree with a ton of stamina so if it truly becomes a stampede out front and quick pace, I think Scroll holds on because he has the stamina to hold and Destiny may be in a good position to continue on steadily. I could see Bourbon War coming like a freight train at the end. This leaves Signalman and Code of Honor as the two who could go either way. Tough great race.
Sorry, that Holy Bull exacta was Everfast 2nd to Harvey Wallbanger, not Epic Dreamer (he ran 4th).
Went back and took another look at Union's Destiny. I admit that the last 2 works are excellent, but still think this is a big over reach for him. The two horses who beat him in that overnight handicap at Gulfstream haven't done much since. I watched that race again and he was in tight for most of the first half of the trip, but he was loose the entire stretch and didn't make up much ground on the top two. I am prepared to eat crow as always, but I just don't see it.
If you heard any loud screaming after the race, that was me! Had the win, exacta, tri, but missed the super because I tossed Scroll. If the 8 finished 4th I would've had it all. I'll be back once I sober up!
I shouldnt have changed my mind on that boxed super. Global Campaign edged Unions Destiny for 4th by only 1/2 length. He ran a nice race and just missed hitting that board.
Lisa I noticed you did not do a "write up" on profile for Bourbon War. I went looking for it tonight. really looking forward to it as I like him and war of will (who you did do an entire profile for). Waiting with baited breath. I was wondering if there is too much synth/turf influence there in bourbon war. I just ahve a feeeling about him.
The write-ups on the Triple Crown tab were for the winners and Bourbon War didnt't win a prep! He will however be in the analysis which is taking me a little longer this year! (Pressure!)
The write-ups are just general but they change in the analysis because now its a handicapping thing against the field. I did write something about him for the Futures Pool Two thread but that analysis may change when I put him against the others. Here's the link:
https://www.thedirtyhorseclub.com/forum/2019-kentucky-derby/2019-derby-futures-pool-two-analysis
I was hoping that I would have the big analysis done by today or tomorrow but it is looking like it wont be done until Friday or even Saturday morning. There's alot of horses and replays and serious research on each one. Its a big one this year!