65 % of all Winners of the BC Mile have been 3 or 4 yr olds
3 yr olds won 9/34 or 26 %
4 yr olds won 13/34 or 38 %
4 Yr olds hold a percentage edge 38 % to 26 % over the 3 yr olds
5 yr olds 7/34 or 21 %
6 yr old 4/34 or 12 %
7 yr olds 1/34 or 3 %
Discussion
Let's look at the field for the 2020 Lecomte 1. Finnick the Fierce Broke his maiden easily going five furlongs in a four horse field at Indiana in June. He was given three months off and came back in a 75k OC going 6 1/2 furlongs at Churchill and went off at 36:1. He ran a bang-up fourth after a poor start and stamped himself as a racehorse. Inexplicably let go at 88-1 in the 1 1/16 Gr 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, he closed like a freight train for 2nd. This son of Dialed In, who keeps getting ignored at the windows, will be on all my tickets. He draws the rail for the Lecomte and that's a good place to be at the Fairgrounds. He should get the inside stalkers trip and there is plenty of speed in here. Working like he means it! Don't pass him up! 2. Mr. Monomoy He's Monomoy Girl's little brother and that alone should get your attention. He was a fast closing 4th in his first race at Keeneland after some early trouble and hasn't done much wrong since. He was a good 2nd in a 50k OC at this track last month and is sure to take money because of his sister, but I don't think he measures up to these. Can't fault you for liking him, but I'm going to pass. 3. Perfect Star After the performances of War of Will and Omaha Beach when switched to dirt after grass success, who can fault trying the same thing this year? I can. This looks like a grass horse to me. I'm going to let him beat me. 4. Scabbard He hasn't run a bad race yet, though his non threatening 4th in the Juvenile was nothing to write home about. He's battle tested with 2nds in the Saratoga Special and the Iroquois and fits in here with a nice inside draw. I think he has to be used, but I'm not wild about his chances for winning. He will be on my exotic tickets. 5. Exsession He took five tries to break his maiden, but he always seems to have a chance. A steady grinder type who was beaten by Mr. Monomoy by three lengths at this track last month. I don't see him reversing that result here. If the speed collapses, he might stumble into the superfecta. I'm tossing him. 6. New Eagle An early speed type who will not get the lead in here. He might be heard from early, but I doubt we'll hear from him late. He was beaten by the 1 horse last time after coasting on the front. No coasting in here. I'm tossing him. 7. Halo Again He's 2 for 2 in his young career though his last was on the all weather at Woodbine. Still, beware the unbeaten horse! This son of Speightstown has been given a nice rest since his last and he's working like he means it. There's quite a bit of early speed in here and he should be running late. I'm using him. 8. Jack the Umpire An early speed type from Delta who is three for four against lesser, but this time I think the umpire strikes out. 9. Silver Slate This son of Hard Spun has two very good races under his belt and is working like he's going to run another. He's a little further outside than I would like, but I think he has to be used. 10. Enforceable A late running son of Tapit who did run third in the Gr 1 Breeders Futurity at Keeneland. He seems to be more of the steady grind it out type than anything else and he'll have to pass them all to win here. The 1 horse beat him last time and will probably beat him again. I'll pass. 11. Bango Seems to be overreaching in here. He was soundly thrashed by the nine horse last September and shows nothing that would make him a contender here. 12. Shashashakemeup A front runner stuck on the outside with a faster horse to his immediate outside is not a recipe for success. No thanks. 13. Sycamore Run A speed demon who broke his maiden at this track last month in a very fast time. The interesting thing is his breeding does suggest he can stretch out. I think he'll gun for the lead in here, get it, and hope to last. It's asking a lot from this post, but he's dangerous. I'm tossing him, but won't be entirely shocked if he beats me. 14. Lynn's Map With a better post, this guy would've been my choice. This son of Liam's Map has run three really nice races. With the heavy speed to his immediate inside, he may be able to get over and work out a position easier than it looks on paper. I'll be using him on all my tickets. A full field of 14 means there will be chaos galore with lots of upset chances. I'll be concentrating on the 1 and the 14, but mixing in the 4-7-9 on my exotics. Good luck to all who are playing!