22.2 44.3 109.2 121.4 134.4 gear down. Mott's First Time Starter.
Gulfstream Park 01-26-19 SAT Race 4... #1 Winning Beyer 104.
Watch the race
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VtbeA31bJUU
Lisa can you do a Write up on him.
Thanks
To see this working, head to your live site.
Search
Hidden Scroll - Hard Spun and Sheba Queen (Empire Maker)
Chefs - DP = 5-7-14-0-0 (26) Index= 2.71 CD= .65
Mares - DP= 3-6-4-9-5 Speed= 9 Stamina = 14 Index = .70 Triads = 13-19-18
The first thing that must be addressed is the sloppy track at Gulfstream. The fact is that horses who fall into the 2.00 to 2.99 chef index category generally do NOT run in the manner in which both he and City of Light ran yesterday on Pegasus Day. Tracks like that favor the higher indexes, however, yesterday that track played directly in favor of those two average indexed colts. There are a few possible reasons why.
One is that the track in certain paths just happened to be deeper and harder to run in the spots where the speedy types ran (highly unlikely but not out of the question). Two, the track was so wet and deep that those high speed index horses who generally run with greater ease had a much deeper and harder track which did not allow them to just glide or skip over the surface. With no stamina to balance them out, they died. I do not think this is the reason because Accelerate had the stamina to counteract his higher index and he couldnt keep up. The last reason, and the most probable, is that City of Light and Hidden Scroll had the correct BALANCE- even on both the stamina side and the speed side to tackle that off track. Full blown stamina horses always have a hard time with it, but it seems that yesterday that track was very kind to balanced colts. And that is exactly what Hidden Scroll is from his Chefs.
The top of Hidden Scrolls chart begins with two old time chefs close up in the second and third generation, Danzig (I,C) and Northern Dancer (B,C) and on the bottom in his third generation is Unbridled (B,I). His 4th generation is overloaded in Classic Distance sires. So right off the bat, since his closer sires contribute sprinters speed, intermediate speed and some distance it is all backed up with Classic distance from the 4th. The profile spreads and it is extremely well configured.
The mares are easily read. All stamina. Generally the configurations of this guy depict a bonafide Belmont Stakes winner. Mid ranged indexed colt with triads low in mare sprinters speed and dominant in stamina triad numbers. Hidden Scroll's numbers are perfectly configured for that race.
These types usually have a harder time keeping up with the higher speed indexes in the shorter distances (including the Kentucky Derby) and then they are the ones who shine in the Belmont because of the balanced profile from the chefs coupled with the high inherited stamina. But within this group, there are a few who step up and stand out with their past performances which means they have the ability to outrun their inheritance. For the Kentucky Derby, the most important section to truly handicap harder and with a microscope is the 2.00 to 2.99. This is the section that has the biggest disadvantage and the least success at that 10f race, however, it is one of the easiest categories to isolate a Derby player.
The horse must have something special in his chart (in this case, 2 chefs back to back close up in generations) and he must have proven performances where he beat the speed he was entered against going shorter. (In this case, blowing up the sloppy track against his breeding is all one needs to see!) This guys performance was at odds with his breeding on the surface but the fact that he has both Intermediate and Brilliant speed inheritance so close up (and that added Unbridled speed in his 3rd) puts a highlight on him as a mid-ranged index colt who will have a definite advantage over the others in that category come the big day. The stamina inheritance from his mares guarantees the 10 furlongs. This guy is an absolute keeper. The fact that he was able to run the way he did on that sloppy track which goes against the grain is all one needs to know to see that he has the ability to utilize that high speed he inherited counteracted with major mare stamina. That is the most important part in terms of the Derby. A+ prospect. Any 2.00 to 2.99 colt who is packing the mare stamina that he has coupled with a proven track record of being able to DISPLAY his inherited speed going short is a complete stand-out.
Thanks Lisa,
I appreciate it
Top 3 Dirt Beyer on Saturday
World Of Trouble ran 5F in 22.0 44.1 56.2 Winning Beyer 107 (Race 3)
Hidden Scroll ran 8F in 22.2 44.3 109.2 121.4 134.4 Winning Beyer 104 (Race 4)
City of Light ran 9F in 23.1 46.4 110.4 134.4 147.3 Winning Beyer 112 (Race 12)
Hidden Scroll showed speed and stamina in debut win. He remind me of GO FOR WAND. Go For Wand in second career start won by 18 length in a one-mile allowance.
The other thing that will really stand out about him if he does get that gate in May is that the probability of a sloppy mess of a track is very high at that time of year. Looks like we will have a strong Exaggerator type who will be the "must use" of the day. He will be a gift for superfecta players!
Another important factor is that Mott rarely pushes his horses early. For the last 20 years you could confidently bet against Mott 1st time starters. I've learned to be careful with single blowout races in the mud, but he did it so easily and he also broke a step slow and rushed up. His next race on a dry track will tell the story, but I think he might be something special.
Thanks for the info on this horse, could you check out WinWinWin also
Win Win Win
Chefs = 6-8-8-0-0 (22) Index = 4.50 CD = .91
Mares = 7-4-4-11-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = .96 Triads 15-19-19
Well Well Well!!!! Look at this! First the good stuff... The Chefs index 4.50 coupled with the Mare Triads 15-19-19 are spectacular for the Derby. That chef index shows that he inherited 4.5 times more speed than stamina. That is a ton. That index on its own depicts a "normal" sprinter pedigree HOWEVER when you add in the mares contribution shown in those triads it shows that this is one "sprinter" who has the potential from his inheritance to sustain it going 10f in the Derby. Triads read Speed-Classic-Stamina. With a 15 in his speed slot, (which is considered low) is exactly the number that would be necessary. In other words, too much inherited stamina from both chefs and mares would affect him negatively in that having to much speed would hinder how far he could sustain it. He received more than enough from his chefs, so he could not afford any more if he wants to compete at 10f. The fact that he has a 19 in both his Classic and High Stamina Slots gives him the ability to sustain much further than a sprinter type colt. This is a magnificent configuration.
On top of that the mares point spread between his speed and his stamina is 4 points. This is also very very good. High inheritance of speed from the chefs counteracted by high inheritance of stamina from his mares. It doesnt get much better than that.
Now the downsides - When looking at dosage numbers across the lines and not just at the index and triads (which in WIN WIN WINS case are fantastic) there are a few things that may chip away at that mare stamina. This is where observing his next race or so with a microscope will tell us which way he is going to gravitate. What I see in those profiles, especially the chefs, is a huge influence in the Brilliant (4f to 6f) and Intermediate (7f to 9f) slots. The 8 in the Intermediate slot is the same as the Classic slot. When that happens, a horse has a tendency to want to settle in between the 2 which would fall at 9.25f (just short of the 10f). The 6 in the Brilliant slot pulls him even more to left which drags that optimum down below the 9f mark. His mares counteract all of that speed BUT there is a possibility that the 7 in that Brilliant category will affect that stamina a great deal. That is a high number in that short sprinting category which means more of the important mares in his chart passed that particular distance down to their progeny. The probability that his stamina will get watered down is very strong which may hinder his ability to sustain the 10f even though his triads are saying he has enough.
All of the numbers in a profile are important. This guy definitely has the potential and the fact that he did not run out to the lead and ACT LIKE A SPRINTER plays a great deal in his favor and could be a major tell in how everything will eventually land with regards to his optimum. His style of running appears to mimic his triads and not his profile which is exactly what will make him get that 10f. If he continues to run behind the stalker, reserving his speed late near the final turn this horse has the correct stamina balance for the Derby. He must be observed closely in his next race which hopefully goes to at least a mile or slightly longer. If he depicts the same style in that race then his stamina is not getting watered down. This means he is a player for the Derby - and a huge one at that!! If he runs differently next out - then that means he is favoring all of that speed and his stamina is getting watered down. My prediction based on history - these types of configurations usually favor the triads and I think he will be a gem in that Derby race. Great find!!! Excellent.
Really like him for that crazy nice pedigree & that he did run like a keeper. Fingers crossed for him.