2019 Derby Futures Pool Two Analysis

Twinspires

Friday, February 8th, 12 PM ET – Sunday, February 10th, 2019 6 PM ET

Last year’s Pool Two Kentucky Futures bet offered by Twinspires consisted of 23 hopefuls offering nice odds. Out of the 23, a whopping nine colts all had a secure gate in the Derby leaving many with live tickets and great odds. That is very good and was worth the gamble. Although Justify was missing in action, the extra “All Others” bet held a great deal of weight. This year, the M/L on all others is 5-2 and worth every cent this early, especially if you play exactas in your futures.

These are the colts being offered up on Twinspires for the Kentucky Derby Futures Pool. The M/L odds have been listed along with a short analysis. Please keep in mind that the analysis has everything to do with the bet on the 10f Derby and has absolutely nothing to do with their potential running at any other distance prior to the Derby.

There are some colts on this list who may win every single race they enter going forward from today but they may not have the potential to run 10f in the same manner based on two things:

Their Breeding.

History.

There are 8 colts on this list who have the correct numbers to be players in the Derby. A few of those eight I would put in the category of “At least a shot at the board.” So if you also place exacta future bets, those few might garner some attention. The goal is to have a few live runners on the first Saturday in May coupled with those runners having a real advantage with their breeding. It is all about who gets the 10f and who gets it the fastest.

Out of the eight players from this pool, three of them are speed horses which gives them the greatest advantage of them all. Two of them are bottom speed horses and 3 of them are stamina. (There is also one “average – mid range” colt who is a must use regardless of his numbers.) Combinations of the 3 different categories in any exacta pool bet will give you an advantage. Hopefully, they all make their way into a gate in Kentucky. Good luck and happy betting!

1. Bourbon War 50-1

DP = 6-12-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 9-3-4-4-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.89 Triads = 16-11-18

This is a very nice colt, but he has absolutely no chance in the Kentucky Derby. His mare profile is split in two, the mare index is stagnant and the triads are nowhere near where they need to be for 10f. He should have no problems though securing a gate. Bet him along the way, but his numbers are just not there for the big race.

2. Coliseum 15-1

DP = 6-13-14-1-0 (34) DI = 3.25 CD = 0.71

Mare Profile = 9-4-5-4-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.17 Triads = 18-13-16

Fantastic horse, terrific, however, not for the Derby. He is a Preakness boy. Too much speed inheritance which makes him a hotshot for the trail but it would seem that the 10f are out of his reach. He reminds me so much of Bolt D’Oro who was a superstar buzz horse all the way through but if the numbers aren’t there from the mares, they just won’t get him around 10f. He will make a great show of it all the way up to the top of the stretch and then he fades. Talent though is another thing, and he may at least warrant a 2 spot on an exacta bet if you have a few dollars to spare.

3. Game Winner 6-1

DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 6-1-4-5-11 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.55 Triads = 11-10-20

Being one of the top Derby Hopefuls on most everyone’s list, I am sure most will not like what I have to say here. But as those who have known me for years, I am brutally honest and I only write what I see in the numbers without any bias or other opinions clouding me. If this was not a Derby Futures Pool and rather a Belmont Stakes Pool, I would say to put some hefty cash out now and grab those odds. I would say to bet him along with Country House and a couple others on this list and call it a day if it was for the Belmont Stakes. I would tell you to forget the bet in the Derby and wait because these numbers (in essence, his breeding) is not favorable, not even in the slightest, for the Derby race. The numbers all favor the Belmont Stakes. This is not to say that this type of monster couldn’t win the Derby, as his performances have shown he is one hell of a runner and he is definitely running through these numbers which show absolutely no advantage to date. This horse has barely any early speed inheritance, yet he wins 6f, 7f and 8.5f races all up front. Chalk these wins up to either Candy Ride’s crazy influence or Baffert’s “magic” at play with another monster who runs with no rhyme or reason as it pertains to his breeding. Baffert’s hotshots are mostly ALL THE SAME. Just about every one of them. Their numbers barely ever match their wins or their form. They all run the same and they are always running way past their numbers. My advice here, spend the money on him in the Futures. (As if I need to tell anyone that!) He's a Baffert horse and we have no choice but to throw the numbers in the trash. Game Winner’s perfect Belmont profile means absolutely nothing. If this 2.33 colt with his 9 point spread favoring stamina coupled with 11-10-20 triads wins the Derby, this horse will be Baffert’s 3rd Triple Crown winner in a row because Game Winner has Belmont written all over him. That sure is some magic. He must be used in your Futures Bet.

4. Global Campaign 50-1

DP = 6-9-13-0-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-2-1-7-12 Speed = 9 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 10-10-20

Notice the mare’s numbers alongside Game Winners – they are very close. All stamina down on the bottom. His triads are almost identical to Game Winner, as is his mares index and point spread. This guy broke his maiden at 7f stalking the lead down at Gulfstream. The big difference between Global and Game Winner is that Chef index. Global inherited speed on top and it guided him to victory. There is some rhyme and reason there. As far as a futures Bet at 10f in the Derby, well, I do believe he has more than enough stamina to get those 10f, but with a 3.31 index and no speed coming from the mares, he will fall short against the other game speed demons who are packing the right stamina as well. The mare index is way too low and unfortunate for him, he is not in Baffert’s barn.

*Addition after his win yesterday --- Since this guy put in another fast performance, this time wiring the field traveling a mile and a sixteenth in an allowance race, it would seem that the chefs numbers are packed enough with speed to counteract all of that mare stamina. In the 2 races he demonstrated that he is leaning to his chefs early speed inheritance and that 3.31 index. He truly is holding serious stamina from his mares which is an understatement. After watching the replay and toying with the numbers a bit, he appears to be built similar to a Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon type and I will say his configurations bode much better than Game Winners from his chefs for Kentucky. The high amount of stamina (or should I say incredible overloaded amount of stamina) from those mares generally will take over just enough to allow the speed to suffer - especially on a sloppy track. This guy can sustain his speed the 10f without a shadow of a doubt and if he continues his forward running style going forward he does have very strong potential for the Derby itself. Should it rain come Derby Day, that mare influence will be to his disadvantage but if it is clear and sunny, and he continues to run forwardly placed in his next races, my advice would be to use him the day of. The breeding from the chefs is there (speed) and the stamina from the mares give him an edge, but a maiden race and an allowance race both at Gulfstream so far does not warrant using in Pool 2 for the Kentucky Derby. Once all of the showy early types are weeded out by Pool Three, that would be the time to strike.

5. Gray Attempt 50-1

DP = 3-4-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 6-5-6-6-6 Speed = 11 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-17-18

This is a great example of a very high speed horse who will undoubtedly thrive on the trail. His chefs numbers depict a sprinters pedigree and his mares are throwing some stamina into the mix... But can he sustain it going 10f? It’s very tight. And it’s the mare profile that is making it very tight. The spread of his mare inheritance 6-5-6-6-6 is so evenly balanced across the board that it enhances the speed (which he really couldn’t afford, he has enough already) and that makes the speed side rise much higher than the stamina side WHEN COMBINED.) The triads in this case are deceiving. You can see a high chef index coupled with fairly loaded triads numbers but when they are all added together, the stamina suffers. It appears that 10f is longer than he can sustain. The boost of the additional bag of stamina from the mares will allow him to sustain further than a normal sprinting distance but not quite enough to be comfortable at 10f. He will however get a boost if it should rain, but that boost isn’t enough to get him to the wire first. And probably not even second or third as well. For a Derby futures bet, it would seem that it is wasted money.

6. Gunmetal Gray 20-1

DP = 4-7-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68

Mare Profile = 4-5-7-8-4 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.87 Triads = 16-20-19

The 3.00 chef index combined with the mare’s .87 index falls a bit short for a win at Churchill. But his triads do give him a shot at that board so he would seem a good one to throw under an exacta pool bet just in case. Would be even better if they offered trifectas and supers, as he has a better shot at breaking into the bottom there with these configurations. They aren’t great but they aren’t bad either. They are just on the cusp which gives him a shot at the board.

7. Harvey Wallbanger 20-1

DP = 8-6-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33 CD = 0.85

Mare Profile = 10-4-0-6-12 Speed = 14 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.80 Triads = 14-10-18

This guy can win as many races as he likes on the road to get there, but a win in the Derby is never going to happen. The triads are beyond repair. Unfortunately, his numbers will never work at Churchill in May.

8. Hidden Scroll 12-1

DP = 5-7-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.65

Mare Profile = 3-6-4-9-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.70 Triads = 13-19-18

These are Belmont Stakes numbers, not Derby numbers. But winning in the fashion that he did in the slop goes against this inheritance which means he may be running past those configurations. This is the type that should wait for Pool Three to watch his next out but if he pulls another move like he did at Gulfstream, his odds will plummet. Worth it now to spend a few bucks and secure just in case. His breeding says no for the Derby, but his last race showed that he has potential even with that 2.71 index. Worth it.

9. Improbable 8-1

DP = 12-9-13-0-0 (34) DI = 4.23 CD = 0.97

Mare Profile = 6-6-4-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-17-18

Every number across the board is absolutely perfect for the Kentucky Derby. These numbers are fantastic for the 10f in that race. Rain or shine. Yes! No need to even go any further here. He belongs on every futures bet and in every pool along the way.

10. Instagrand 10-1

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 5-8-5-11-3 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.05 Triads = 18-24-19

Bottom of the speed category with a spectacular set of mare numbers. Just like Improbable, there is no need to type any further. Major contender for the Derby. (And what a face!)

(I will add one more important thing here - Should this guy win the Derby, his numbers work extremely well for the Belmont Stakes too, which means this guy has Triple Crown Numbers as well. The .50 CD is fantastic for Belmont and the triads are covered for both races. Serious breeding across the board.)

11. Knicks Go 30-1

DP = 3-6-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 8-3-4-10-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.15 Triads = 15-17-17

With these numbers, it does not appear that the Derby will do him any justice with this set-up. He might be able to make a go of it at Belmont but even there something is slightly lacking.

12. Limonite 50-1

DP = 8-2-15-5-2 (32) DI = 1.21 CD = 0.28

Mare Profile = 7-3-6-5-10 Speed = 10 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.74 Triads = 16-14-21

Possible stamina contender, but in this particular pool, there are better stamina numbers elsewhere. He could be an addition to your bets as one of those “just in case” guys based on that Chef profile of his. It is magnificent but the triads and mare index are both falling short within this group. 50/50 here. This is the type that is best kept for Pool Three, another race or so to see how he fares with his speed going a bit longer. It takes SPEED to win the Derby, both in his blood and in his performances. Not yet.

13. Maximus Mischief 20-1

DP = 1-1-0-0-0 (2) DI = Inf CD = 1.50

Mare Profile = 3-10-5-9-2 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.17 Triads = 18-24-16

Unfortunately, the Chefs full set of numbers are in serious question and his mare line isn’t helping matters. His chefs CD is so high and the mare index only pushes it higher. Other non-chef sires may come into play because he is only holding 2 points in that profile but the probability that those other sires dump only stamina on him is very low. There just isn’t enough here at this point to give him a nod.

14. Mucho Gusto 15-1

DP = 2-0-10-0-0 (12) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.33

Mare Profile = 6-4-11-9-3 Speed = 10 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 21-24-23

The best stamina numbers so far are right here. If you place a bet this weekend, a stamina horse MUST be in your line-up and there are none better on this list. The 1.40 stamina chef index coupled with that 1.04 mare speed index are perfectly balanced. Those triads are SPECTACULAR. It doesn’t get much better than that for a stamina guy. He was bred with more than enough speed to compete at 10f at Churchill. If he takes heed from Instilled Regard, he may be able to bring up the rear on a sloppy track as well with these numbers. But that may be pushing it! He’s going to be pitted with War of Will in Kentucky and the two of them have what it takes in the stamina department. This is one Baffert Horse who has the numbers to back him up.

15. Network Effect 30-1

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 7-6-2-5-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.16 Triads = 15-13-13

This guy is going nowhere in the Kentucky Derby.

16. Owendale 50-1

DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63

Mare Profile = 7-7-4-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-16-17

He’ll be hanging out with Network Effect and Walking Thunder.

17. Signalman 20-1

DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 5-8-2-7-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.87 Triads = 15-17-16

This guy falls a little short in his mare’s inheritance for the 10f Derby. It’s not bad but it’s basically even keel. Even doesn’t cut it for a win in this race. With his 3.80 chef index, it seems as though his punch that he needs of stamina to sustain it is lacking in his triads. They aren’t terrible where he has no chance but they aren’t good enough to make a bold and confident statement that he should be part of a winning Futures bet. He’s a bit under par with not only some of the contenders on this list, but with many others who will inevitably be seen on Pool Three.

18. Tacitus 50-1

DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16

He’s got everything he needs for the road to get there, but once he’s there, he’s gonna face some serious problems. His speed inheritance is wonderful and being a Tapit colt who magically finds a way to show up in the Belmont Stakes after sleeping in the Derby is always a mystery. There is something about the Derby, being run at a much faster pace with 20 horses that plays so badly with these numbers. For now, he gets put on hold but the Tapit/Close Hatches combo must be kept on close watch for Pool Three.

19. Tax 20-1

DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31

Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.82 Triads = 16-17-20

With 6 pure classic chefs in his first 4 generations (and fairly close up as well) coupled with that 7 in his brilliant slot of the mare profile, this stamina guy has a lot to offer and his potential in the Derby should he find a gate is substantial. With a few other speed chefs thrown in the mix, he may be a very good threat to both War of Will and Mucho Gusto, although MG’s numbers are more intense. Hefty and intense is a major component for the standards of the Derby, but Tax at least has some muscle behind his own numbers. A good potential horse to use in your exacta future bets.

20. Vekoma 30-1

DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69

Mare Profile = 4-3-7-5-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-15-20

The numbers are very weak for the Derby. Very talented horse along the way, but he is so up against it. This is really one horse who could be outrunning his numbers but as far as placing money on him now, it really is way too early to consider a horse with this type of breeding. We need every race in between to gauge him. If he continues to mimic a “Frosted” type use him the day of.

21. Walking Thunder 50-1

DP = 3-4-4-1-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-2-2-5-7 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.86 Triads = 11-9-14

No shot whatsoever at 10f in the Kentucky Derby.

22. War of Will 30-1

DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41

Mare Profile = 4-7-4-12-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-23-18

He is right there with Tax and Mucho Gusto as potential stars in the stamina category with a real shot at the stretch. Even though speed demons equipped with serious mare stamina have the advantage in the Derby, a stamina guy almost always bursts into the mix somewhere. Once in awhile, depending on the amount of speedsters entered who pose no serious threat in being able to sustain past the far turn, a stamina guy will find his way to that wire first. War of Will has the breeding to compete in that regard. He may be a gift at those M/L odds of 30-1 this early in the game.

23. Win Win Win 30-1

DP = 6-8-8-0-0 (22) DI = 4.50 CD = 0.91

Mare Profile = 7-4-4-11-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 15-19-19

These numbers are very nice for the Kentucky Derby, especially if it rains. It is all about his style of running that coincides with his mare's numbers that make him a stand-out in the speed category. If he can find a way to continue to keep those mares close, he has a shot to run with the best of them. Spend the money.

24. Mutual Field/All Others 5-2

Always beneficial to throw into the mix if you play future exactas this early. There are so many out there lurking around holding all the right stuff. With the low amount of speedy types who have the right mare numbers under them, it would be beneficial to take the 5-2 odds and spend a few extra dollars instead of not having that live exacta ticket come the first Saturday in May. As last year presented, Justify, who was in hiding in Pool Two, gave holders of #24 on their tickets some life.