If at any time you would like the numbers and a short analysis on any colt, please leave the name of the horse, his sire and his mare below and I will answer all inquiries in this thread.
Thats so nice but its is not a burden at all. I love it. Keeps me on my toes.
I get asked about colts all the time and I just think it would be easier for me to keep it all in one place and on the website as opposed to getting emails. Plus, you never know who might pop up on this list!!
Sysonsby asked about a horse on another thread and she found a great one. Thats where I got the idea to start this thread.
Mares = Mare Profile = 6-7-2-6-12 Speed = 13 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.66
Triads = 15-15-20
St Simon: 25.78% - splits push him above 30% mark.
First thing that pops out here is the Belmont Stakes advantage. He is built for the Belmont, no doubt. He's all stamina. Looks similar to Attachment Rate numbers and basically has the same outlook. With Belmont-worthy stamina, he obviously can run the 10f of the Derby. Attaching those numbers to his past performance sheet so far, point to yet another total stamina stand-out. He demolished his speedy foes at 6.5f and then again at 7f where he made a mockery of Storm the Court. His 2.05 index is close enough to drop into the "stamina category" and out of that disadvantaged mid range category. Plus, he has a somewhat loaded profile which is also another pin for his advantaged cap. This is Bafferts top Derby guy, over-powering Authentic and Thousand Words and he is treating him as such. Major Major Major contender for the Derby. His displayed speed with his stamina pedigree and is the biggest threat to Sole Volante who would be considered his immediate peer. With his undoubtedly strong Belmont advantage, this is Bafferts Triple Crown Guy.
For the Derby, he has too many strikes against him. The 2.56 index is way too average, the point spread is stagnant in the mares speed/stamina balance and the triads are under par across the board. The 10f Kentucky Derby demands major inheritance on at least one side of the speed/stamina spectrum and even better if both sides were hefty and loaded. Most mid-range index guys tend to be too "avarage" and would need to show a dominance over his speedy contenders in his past performances to prove he is outrunning his inheritance. Tall order here.
Another stamina heavy guy who would be promising on a clear track for the Derby but may suffer significantly on a wet track. This guy can run 10f and most likely will show more brilliance the further the track extends. He would not be flashy because he lacks a great deal in mare short speed influence but much more loaded past the 9f mark. Another one with better numbers for the Belmont over the Kentucky Derby. Being on the bottom end of the speed spectrum coupled with a lack of quick speed from the mares gives him a disadvantage against his speedy peers in the Derby but gives him a greater advantage if let loose in the Belmont. This guy is a better with age and distance sort.
St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Teddy - Split through Mr. Prospector
This one is fun! Eleven times more speed inherited over stamina, plus many prominent non-chefs who also lean to speed. Mares kick in a bit of extra stamina to that dominant 7 to 9f category from the chefs, leaving him with an optimum of about 8.7f. This is further than a typical sprinter and much further than a typical colt with an 11.00 index. He appears to be all set to rage upon the Mile Division but should be kept fairly far away from the Kentucky Derby. With this type of breeding, a shot at the board underneath could be in play in the Preakness, especially if it ended up sloppy. Great find for Sprint or Mile Breeders Cup races, regardless of track.
This is really interesting. There's alot going on here. Where to begin? First, the bottom of his chart stemming from the mares is magnificent. Galileo line straight through. This produces a profile similar to Code of Honor (3-1-11-7-0, Index .76, CD 0.00) because of the high amount of chefs on that lower portion of the chart. Invader's profile is actually stacked a bit more, but the outcome once blended is fairly the same. The reines numbers also produce a similar outcome, all stamina but Code's is stacked higher on that end (Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20) The balance is extremely similar and that is because of that Galileo line. This guy was forced to perform on turf going short for his first 4 races and bombed each one. You would think that after the 2nd failure they would have figured out that he hated the surface. After finally upgrading him to all weather surface for his 5th race, he managed to win even though at a snails pace. He needed some experience and conditioning there and then powered home in next again on AWS with a much better and quicker win. It will be very interesting to watch his debut on dirt, which will most likely result in an ever better performance, one where he finally gets to run on his preferred surface. As with Code, that Galileo line influence allowed him to shine at places like Gulfstream (fast tracks) and then demolished his opponents on the surface at Saratoga. (Code was given a clear and advantaged beginning, opposite of Invader.) Midway between oil slick and harder track which is probably going to be the same outcome for Invader. His numbers are exquisite and his home is on dirt. The glaring knock here is that since last June, this guy has had to endure track surfaces and distances that he did not like over and over again. Does this affect him? Well, it affected his track record very negatively. Would he have been better to debut at 6f on dirt as opposed to turf? Obviously yes. Would it have been wise to get him off that surface immediately instead of beating his confidence down repeatedly? Absolutely. Does that path affect him going forward? That is the major question and one that will be answered most likely after his second attempt off that AWS and on dirt. He needs 2 consecutive dirt races in order to answer that. As far as breeding goes, it is magnificent and the further he goes the better, but his early path set him back substantially. Its as if he is must start his racing career all over from the beginning. If he is tough, he will succeed. Great find with strong capability. Lets just hope he wasnt damaged by his initial path.
Have you had a chance to look at Charlatan yet, Lisa? I know he hasn't won any stakes but I'm assuming that will be changing shortly. Especially with Churchill apparently talking about delaying the Derby this year, he could end up getting in.
Appears to be the second coming of Roadster. Lots of speed inheritance and very flashy so his wins will appear to be overwhelmingly dominant but he does not have the inheritance to sustain it going 10f. The chefs are stacked in the Intermediate and Classic distance and when blended give him in optimum of exactly 9f. The mares numbers offer him a bit of additional stamina, getting him to about 9.2f. Off track maybe up to 9.5f.
The prep distances will allow him to show-off before the Derby. He should be able to grab the distance on his home track for a late prep but as soon as he hits Churchill for the big day, I would consider him to be a rabbit for Nadal because he isnt equipped for the 10f.
I love the fact that you are willing to do this , but it seems like an awful burden on you
Thats so nice but its is not a burden at all. I love it. Keeps me on my toes.
I get asked about colts all the time and I just think it would be easier for me to keep it all in one place and on the website as opposed to getting emails. Plus, you never know who might pop up on this list!!
Sysonsby asked about a horse on another thread and she found a great one. Thats where I got the idea to start this thread.
Thanks Lisa
Lisa,
Dying to get your take on NADAL (Blame/Ascending Angel). Also interested in FARMINGTON ROAD (Quality Road/Silver La Belle). Thanks!
I would like to know about Wells Bayou and Basin
Nadal
Chefs = 3-11-15-2-1 (32) Index = 2.05 CD = .41
Mares = Mare Profile = 6-7-2-6-12 Speed = 13 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.66
Triads = 15-15-20
St Simon: 25.78% - splits push him above 30% mark.
First thing that pops out here is the Belmont Stakes advantage. He is built for the Belmont, no doubt. He's all stamina. Looks similar to Attachment Rate numbers and basically has the same outlook. With Belmont-worthy stamina, he obviously can run the 10f of the Derby. Attaching those numbers to his past performance sheet so far, point to yet another total stamina stand-out. He demolished his speedy foes at 6.5f and then again at 7f where he made a mockery of Storm the Court. His 2.05 index is close enough to drop into the "stamina category" and out of that disadvantaged mid range category. Plus, he has a somewhat loaded profile which is also another pin for his advantaged cap. This is Bafferts top Derby guy, over-powering Authentic and Thousand Words and he is treating him as such. Major Major Major contender for the Derby. His displayed speed with his stamina pedigree and is the biggest threat to Sole Volante who would be considered his immediate peer. With his undoubtedly strong Belmont advantage, this is Bafferts Triple Crown Guy.
WOW
Farmington Road
Chefs = 3-4-9-0-0 (16) Index = 2.56 CD = .63
Mares = 9-6-2-7-9 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-15-18
St. Simon = 14.06% through Northern Dancer
For the Derby, he has too many strikes against him. The 2.56 index is way too average, the point spread is stagnant in the mares speed/stamina balance and the triads are under par across the board. The 10f Kentucky Derby demands major inheritance on at least one side of the speed/stamina spectrum and even better if both sides were hefty and loaded. Most mid-range index guys tend to be too "avarage" and would need to show a dominance over his speedy contenders in his past performances to prove he is outrunning his inheritance. Tall order here.
Wells Bayou
Chefs = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) Index = 3.00 CD = .71
Mares = 4-8-2-9-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.67 Triads = 14-19-19
St. Simon = 32.81%
Another stamina heavy guy who would be promising on a clear track for the Derby but may suffer significantly on a wet track. This guy can run 10f and most likely will show more brilliance the further the track extends. He would not be flashy because he lacks a great deal in mare short speed influence but much more loaded past the 9f mark. Another one with better numbers for the Belmont over the Kentucky Derby. Being on the bottom end of the speed spectrum coupled with a lack of quick speed from the mares gives him a disadvantage against his speedy peers in the Derby but gives him a greater advantage if let loose in the Belmont. This guy is a better with age and distance sort.
Basin
Chefs = 3-12-3-0-0 (18) Index = 11.00 CD = 1.00
Mares = 6-6-4-5-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-15-17
St. Simon: Top linebreeds to Teddy - Split through Mr. Prospector
This one is fun! Eleven times more speed inherited over stamina, plus many prominent non-chefs who also lean to speed. Mares kick in a bit of extra stamina to that dominant 7 to 9f category from the chefs, leaving him with an optimum of about 8.7f. This is further than a typical sprinter and much further than a typical colt with an 11.00 index. He appears to be all set to rage upon the Mile Division but should be kept fairly far away from the Kentucky Derby. With this type of breeding, a shot at the board underneath could be in play in the Preakness, especially if it ended up sloppy. Great find for Sprint or Mile Breeders Cup races, regardless of track.
This is so FUN! Thank you!
What about the new guy on the block, Lisa? King Guillermo who won the Tampa Bay Derby.
Already posted and updated in the Blog Article - "Derby Prep Winners" ... I usually update that article on Sunday mornings.
ok, thanks Lisa, will check there
This Awesome Lisa. I love it...
the Rebel, which by the way, looks like we may have thunderstorms that day, looks like it may be a pretty nice field of horses though.
Hi Lisa.Just wondering what you think of Invader
Invader
Chefs = 3-5-18-6-0 (32) Index: 1.13 CD = .16
Mares = 3-5-6-6-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.61 Triads = 14-17-20
St. Simon = 21.88% top
This is really interesting. There's alot going on here. Where to begin? First, the bottom of his chart stemming from the mares is magnificent. Galileo line straight through. This produces a profile similar to Code of Honor (3-1-11-7-0, Index .76, CD 0.00) because of the high amount of chefs on that lower portion of the chart. Invader's profile is actually stacked a bit more, but the outcome once blended is fairly the same. The reines numbers also produce a similar outcome, all stamina but Code's is stacked higher on that end (Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20) The balance is extremely similar and that is because of that Galileo line. This guy was forced to perform on turf going short for his first 4 races and bombed each one. You would think that after the 2nd failure they would have figured out that he hated the surface. After finally upgrading him to all weather surface for his 5th race, he managed to win even though at a snails pace. He needed some experience and conditioning there and then powered home in next again on AWS with a much better and quicker win. It will be very interesting to watch his debut on dirt, which will most likely result in an ever better performance, one where he finally gets to run on his preferred surface. As with Code, that Galileo line influence allowed him to shine at places like Gulfstream (fast tracks) and then demolished his opponents on the surface at Saratoga. (Code was given a clear and advantaged beginning, opposite of Invader.) Midway between oil slick and harder track which is probably going to be the same outcome for Invader. His numbers are exquisite and his home is on dirt. The glaring knock here is that since last June, this guy has had to endure track surfaces and distances that he did not like over and over again. Does this affect him? Well, it affected his track record very negatively. Would he have been better to debut at 6f on dirt as opposed to turf? Obviously yes. Would it have been wise to get him off that surface immediately instead of beating his confidence down repeatedly? Absolutely. Does that path affect him going forward? That is the major question and one that will be answered most likely after his second attempt off that AWS and on dirt. He needs 2 consecutive dirt races in order to answer that. As far as breeding goes, it is magnificent and the further he goes the better, but his early path set him back substantially. Its as if he is must start his racing career all over from the beginning. If he is tough, he will succeed. Great find with strong capability. Lets just hope he wasnt damaged by his initial path.
He’s racing in the Jeff Ruby tomorrow... from there he could land in a Derby prep. Field Pass is another in that race tomorrow... take a look....
Yeah. Field pass got it together off turf after running 2 consecutive dirt races. That is important.
Have you had a chance to look at Charlatan yet, Lisa? I know he hasn't won any stakes but I'm assuming that will be changing shortly. Especially with Churchill apparently talking about delaying the Derby this year, he could end up getting in.
CHARLATAN
Chefs: 5-9-10-0-0 index = 3.80 CD = .79
Mares = 8-4-2-4-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.85 Triads = 14-10-16
Appears to be the second coming of Roadster. Lots of speed inheritance and very flashy so his wins will appear to be overwhelmingly dominant but he does not have the inheritance to sustain it going 10f. The chefs are stacked in the Intermediate and Classic distance and when blended give him in optimum of exactly 9f. The mares numbers offer him a bit of additional stamina, getting him to about 9.2f. Off track maybe up to 9.5f.
The prep distances will allow him to show-off before the Derby. He should be able to grab the distance on his home track for a late prep but as soon as he hits Churchill for the big day, I would consider him to be a rabbit for Nadal because he isnt equipped for the 10f.
Baffert has 3colts (Nadal,Authentic and Charlatan) with similar running styles.It will be interesting to see what Eight Rings does when he comes back
Authentic last race 98 Beyer (San Felipe 8.5f)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAk__IV-uDI
Charlatan last race 106 Beyer (Alw 8f).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8SNh7blOqpQ
Nadal last race 96 Beyer (Rebel 8.5f)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6D9-Yt8SyYs