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Sep 16, 2018

Serengeti Princess

5 comments

So I didn't see her earlier stakes race at Ellis Park but her performance in the Pocahontas was impressive, especially when contrasted with the boys in the Iroquois on the same day. People are already comparing her with Rachel Alexandra, which clearly is extremely premature but she's definitely one to keep an eye on. Lisa, do you have any insights on her breeding?

Sep 17, 2018

Hey Sysonby! Hope you are doing well.

 

I am not very good at reading the girls but I have been working on it for about a year now trying to get a handle on them. They read alittle different than the boys, so I am not 100% confident in pinpointing the optimum distance but I will give it a shot.

 

Chefs DP = 4-3-7-0-0 (14) Index = 3.00 CD = .79

Mares = 10-4-2-5-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Triads = 16-11-16

 

Optimum distance is 9.4f from the combined numbers. Ample speed from the chefs, steals from the stamina a bit on top. The Intermediate dips, so that enhances the Brilliant sprinting speed and pushes the 3.00 index up. So what that means is that she should show more speed than the average 3.00 contender at distances below 9.4f. The .79 index is good. The mares are extremely well balanced - perfect on both sides. The dip of the 11 in the Classic spot enhances the speed even more and allows her to carry that speed to 9f with the greatest of ease. 10f is definitely pushing it, but there is enough stamina in the .79 balance to get her to a board hit over 9.5.

 

If this was a colt, I would generally say the same thing, but the females tend to run past these types of numbers. I have no idea why that is, but it seems to be true. The comparison to Rachel Alexandra is actually not a stretch as it pertains to numbers.

 

Rachel also has a 3.00 index and her CD is .82. Almost identical. Her optimum is 9.2f. Rachels triads are 16-13-17. Same dip in the Classic and almost perfectly balanced with speed and stamina just like Serengeti. Even though the cast of chefs and mares are different between the two, the fact remains that the AWD's that they inherited from those chefs and mares balance out the optimum distance almost exactly to letter. The 3.00 index is deceiving with both, as the brilliant (4-5-6f) inheritance from both the top and bottom of the chart is weighted heavier. Both have a perfect balance on both sides of the see-saw so they can sustain that speed just over 9f. Rachel did it, and it appears that Serengeti is running very true to her numbers. But if they get any brilliant ideas of running her against the boys in the Derby, I would take a strong pass on that. If they point her to the Preakness, I would suggest using her underneath!

Sep 17, 2018Edited: Sep 17, 2018

Thanks for the info, Lisa. It's probably too soon to say where they'll put her. I expect we'll see her in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile Filly's so we'll see how she does against a stronger field. She was pretty much just galloping for the last furlong but it will be interesting to see what happens if she's pushed.

Sep 24, 2018Edited: Sep 26, 2018

Thanks Lisa, What do you think of Covfefe, who is another early girl. Into Mischief- no surprise there- and her dam is Antics, who's dam is Aurora, which is very nice, making Antics a half to Arch and Acoma. There was the brother, Festival of Light (AP Indy) who showed great promise, was UAE horse of the year in 2001, then went baaad, 'savaged' a farm employee & was gelded. Yup. 😫 😫🤤 Big life lesson that came too late. But back to great niece Covfefe, what you think?

Sep 25, 2018

You know Im not good with reading the fillies but... Looks SMASHING!

 

Chefs: 6-8-8-0-2 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mares: 4-9-4-9-5   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.91   Triads = 17-22-18

 

Love that profile. Low chef CD gives her stamina on top. The 3.00 index isnt too out of control high. The triads are fabulous. Mares profile is staggered really nicely. Great speed in the 7 to 9f range with enough stamina to go 10f. I like a mares profile to be weighted heavier in the 7,8,9f Intermediate Slot than in the 4,5,6f Brilliant slot. This is where they do most of their running anyway and when the Brilliant is really high and overloaded with that short sprinters speed it usually waters down any of the stamina they received. Unless the horse is truly bred to be a short sprinter, I am starting to understand that way too much in that Brilliant spot is detrimental to the balance. In the case of Covfefe, her speed comes in the 7,8,9f distances which I truly believe is better all the way around. Her mare profile rises and drops at the perfect spots. I hope that makes sense.

 

Unlike Serengeti Empress, this girl looks like the 10f would be no problem, and her optimum is 9.8f. Not sure if this is reliable though, you know I'm not 100% with understanding how the numbers relate historically with the females. I am slowly working on them but you know I love the boys! The females do read a little differently than the males.

 

But if I had to say, if she was a colt, I would go with a huge yes at 10f at Churchill. And I would say that it would be a very easy road for her to get there at the prep distances. The chefs 5 digit profile is outstanding in that the 14 points gained from the speed wing gives her ample inheritance to compete against the speedsters going short and the 2 in the Professional slot gives her more stamina than many recent Into Mischief colts. The added chefs from her mares side gives her that stamina bump. This is excellent (if it pertains to a female?)

Sep 25, 2018Edited: Sep 26, 2018

She's so nice, love watching the 2 year old fillies more than the colts, but fret more about them too. 2 favourites (so far) up here are Malibu Dawn who's a great grandaughter of Dance Smartly!! through her daughter Dancethruthedawn and Tiz Breathtaking, both coming along so well. My other darling is Bold Script, (Speightstown) just because I adored her dam Original Script. She comes by her grey through El Prado, which is one of the nicest ways of coming by your grey. Thanks for the run down on Covfefe. If a filly ever ran again in the Derby and WON, there'd be a lot of us out for the count. Tiz Time!

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