Below are the trainer comments after the Post Position draw:
Mark Casse (trainer, War of Will; PP #1; 4-1): “It is what it is and we’re going to have to deal with it. Do I wish we had drawn farther outside? Of course, but we’re going to have to deal with it. Tyler is going to have to play the break and see how it works. I don’t think the 1 hole is quite as tough here (as in the Kentucky Derby), but I’m going to have to go study that. I didn’t study it on purpose because I was hoping not to get it.”
“We have to play the hand we we’re dealt. You never can tell how things can go. All we can hope for is a clean trip, and I think if he can get that, he’s going to be tough to beat. I thought the pace would be a little slower in the Derby, but they went a half in 46-and-3. So I don’t see it going a whole lot faster than that. We’ll be fairly close, and if someone wants the lead really bad I guess they’ll have it.
“I think he’s doing good. I think he’s doing as well as Classic Empire (second in 2017 Preakness). This horse has a lot of energy, and he’s extremely tough.
“We definitely know the (‘1’ hole) is not as bad as in the Derby. You have Bourbon War who is going to come from out of it. Warrior’s Charge, he’s fast. But I think if he tries to get in front of War of Will – that could be his demise. One thing about it is the 1 hole can be extremely good or extremely bad. In the Derby it was extremely bad, so I’m thinking we’re going to get extremely good this time.”
Mark Hennig (trainer, Bourbon War; PP #2; 12-1): “At least we won't get hung wide outside this time, hopefully. We think he'll be more tractable with the blinkers on and just fall in behind the pace and save some ground.
“[The blinkers will] put him more in the bridle. We tried breezing him with them, and it seemed to make him a little more aggressive. Sometimes you want to make first run on horses and we've been getting second or third run on some of the horses and it may have cost us a placing a time or two.”
Brad Cox (trainer, Warrior’s Charge, PP #3, 12-1): “Warrior’s Charge drawing the 3, maybe a little bit closer to the inside than I would have liked. Improbable is outside of him and War of Will inside. I’d actually have preferred to be to the outside of both of them. But we’ll see how it plays out. That’s up to the jocks what happens once they break them out of the gate, where to place them. As far as Warrior’s Charge, the draw was probably a little more important for him (than Owendale). He did draw closer than I’d like. It kind of forces our hand maybe just a little bit. But we’ll see what happens. It’s a long run to the first turn. Ultimately, I do feel the fastest horse will get the lead, and our horse is naturally fast. He’s got a high cruising speed, and we’ll see what he can do.”
Bob Baffert (trainer, Improbable; PP #4; 5-2): “I’m fine with it. I wanted to be in the middle somewhere. That’s pretty close. I didn’t want to be way outside. Mike will figure it out. We’ve got a few days to talk about things.”
Elliott Walden (CEO, President WinStar Farm, Improbable; PP #4; 5-2): “I thought it was fine. It looks like there’s some speed inside of Improbable, so 4 looks really good.”
Brad Cox (trainer, Owendale, PP #5; 10-1): “I like the post with Owendale. I don’t think it matters a whole lot with him with the post. I’m happy with it. That’s up to the jocks what happens once they break them out of the gate, where to place them.”
D. Wayne Lukas (trainer, Market King; PP #6; 30-1): “It’s a good spot. I think if you take out Improbable and War of Will it’s a toss-up.’’
Kelly Rubley (trainer, Alwaysmining; PP #7; 8-1): “We’re happy. It looks like there is a little bit of speed in this race, so we’ll have to see how we break and take it from there. I think my horse belongs in this field, he deserves a shot. We’re just really happy and grateful to be here.”
Ken McPeek (trainer, Signalman; PP #8; 30-1): “We're good with the post. It's fine. Mark Casse's horse, obviously, on the inside, I don't know what commitment they'll make. My horse is just going to break well, settle and find a place to run. Hopefully, we'll be mid-pack.”
Gustavo Delgado (trainer, Bodexpress; PP #9; 20-1): “There’s probably going to be a lot of speed, more speed than the Derby. But he has speed to get position. We like the 9. It’s a good spot.”
Dale Romans (trainer, Everfast; PP #10; 50-1): “It's a tough spot, but we're ready. We'll try and wiggle our way into a piece of it. He's done it before. We'll lead him over and see what happens. The post will be all right. Hopefully, we'll get over by the first turn.”
Alex Lieblong (owner, Laughing Fox; PP #11; 20-1): “Well he won the Oaklawn Invitational from the 10 hole, so maybe they’ll scoot over and he can get to the rail. I don’t think he’ll go up there with the leaders. I probably wouldn’t have picked it, but it’s probably not the end of the world for his style.
“I think there will be plenty of people chasing around there is my guess. What he did at Oaklawn there was certainly I’d think you‘d have to qualify that as somewhat of a speed bias track that day. And so if he can do it on that much of a speed bias track, you know I don’t have any worry about him if he gets his trip.”
Blaine Wright (trainer, Anothertwistafate; PP #12; 6-1): “For right now it’s going to have to be our spot. You can’t change things. We’ll take it, move forward and see how good we are.
"We’ve been covered up a little bit in the Sunland Derby and the Lexington, so maybe he can keep his face clean from out there. Maybe our jockey can adapt to things that are happening in front of him. If we have the lead, well, hey, we have the lead. I’m not going to make that assumption at this point. I’ll wait to see it on paper. We just have to hope that our horse comes away from the gate well. It’s a long run to the first turn, and we’ll just let the jock do the work.”
Michael Trombetta (trainer, Win Win Win; PP #13; 15-1): “The post has its ups and downs. We’re not going to be in there long; we'll be in and out. If we get away clean and get on over, hopefully, we'll find a space and we’ll settle in wherever the rider wants him to be. I’ve drawn good posts before, and ironically, the horse next to me bumps into me. We just have to work with what they give us.”
Update weather for Saturday in Baltimore.......
Preakness Forecast as of Wednesday Evening Friday: cloudy, 20% chance rain, 81° Saturday: am clouds, pm sun, 20% chance rain, 79°
Some workout info..........
--On May 7 and 11 at Churchill Downs, Market King breezed twice in five days, first going five furlongs in 1:00.20 (2/27) and then five in 1:00.40 (3/31). Fractional splits aren't available. Trainer Lukas is 83 years old, and the owners are long-time clients. Maybe Market King will run huge in the Preakness, and these works indicate readiness, but it's arguable Market King has been been better all year in the mornings than he has in the afternoons. I was unable to find any video for those two workouts.
--On May 9 at Belmont Park, Bourbon War breezed five furlongs inside of Carlino, a 5-year-old gelding unraced since he finished fourth in the Jockey Gold Cup late last September. Carlino has been working steadily for at least two months. Sporting blinkers, Bourbon War started out a length ahead. Carlino briefly got on even terms, then lost focus a bit in the stretch as he peered off to his right and was outfinished to the wire by Bourbon War. Bourbon War was obviously best in the gallop-out. The video ends before the gallop-out did.Video.
--On May 10 at Fair Hill Training Center, Alwaysmining breezed a half under regular exercise rider Felix Astudillo, timed in in 48.20 (1/13) on the synthetic inner track. “I was very happy with his work today. He started off nice and easy and finished up strong,” trainer Kelly Rubley said. “He galloped out very well, so we’re very pleased." I was unable to find video for this workout.
On May 11 at Churchill Downs, Owendale worked solo five furlongs in 59.20 (1/31). He had initial splits of 12.40, 24.00 and :46.80 and galloped out six furlongs in 1:12.20. That second quarter-mile was timed in 22:80, so he finished very strongly. The video shows him galloping out a long way into the backstretch. Trainer Cox, on video, was obviously very pleased with the work after telling his rider to stay down and let the horse do his thing for as long as he wanted. He said Owendale is still learning but that he is is "coming into the race extremely well." Video.
--On May 11 at Churchill Downs, Warrior’s Charge worked solo five furlongs in 1:00.80 after setting initial fractions of 12.60, 24.60 and 48.60. He galloped out six furlongs in 1:13.20. Warrior's Charge galloped out into the far turn by the track kitchen, which means he wasn't pulled up until after he passed the point where the work began. Trainer Cox, on video, said he was a little headstrong at first and took about a sixteenth of a mile to settle into the work. Cox also seemed pleased with the work after after telling his rider to stay down and let the horse do his thing for as long as he wanted, the same as he did for Owendale. Cox said the horse will be forwardly placed. He said the owners approached him about going in the Preakness, that he'd been planning on the Sir Barton. He said the horse "fits" but also that "we're jumping into the deep end of the pool," but added the horse is "coming into the race extremely well." Video.
--On May 11 at Churchill Downs, Signalman breezed a half-mile in 47.60 in company with Indian Counselor, who was timed in 48.00. Indian Counselor is a maiden. Signalman pulled away by about two lengths at the finish, per Byron King of DRF.com. King also reported trainer McPeek said the work was five furlongs, but apparently McPeek didn't share the time for that distance, and there are no splits reported. The video shows trainer McPeek and Brian Hernandez, Jr. talking, but there's not much said about the workout. Signalman, as a rule, is a good work horse. Video.
--On May 11 at Golden Gate, Anothertwistafate Trainer Blaine Wright sent Anothertwistafate worked in multiple company under Juan Hernandez. Officially he was timed for six furlongs in a bullet 1:14.20. Trainer Wright said, “He’s the type of horse that when you work him a half, he works six furlongs." Wright said the colt galloped out the mile in 1:40.00, meaning he went the two furlongs after the official work time in 25.80. Unfortunately, no video of the workout is available.
--On May 13 at Churchill Downs, Improbable worked an easy four furlongs in 51.80 with Bob Baffert looking on. “He worked really easy, an easy half around there,” Baffert said. “I didn’t want to do too much with him. I just wanted to make sure that he still has a lot of energy.” In the video, we can see Improbable galloping out deep into the backstretch, followed by Baffert's comments. Primary among his comments were, "It takes him awhile to get going." Mike Smith said he might try something new with Improbable in the Preakness. Coupled with Baffert's comments, I suspect Improbable will be sent from the gate and try to control the pace. Video.
--On May 13, at Churchill Downs, Laughing Fox cruised through a leisurely half-mile work in 51.60 under exercise rider Wilson Fabian. The breeze was a typical move for a Steve Asmussen-trained horse the week of a race, or almost any time for that matter. I couldn't locate any video of the work.
--Bodexpress, War of Will and Win Win Win weren't asked to put in timed workouts between the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness, but I will not hold that against them when assessing their chances.
Sounds like Baffert hasn't *figured out* Improbable as a 3 year old. Now Smith trying "something new" in Preakness? Gawd, didn't they do that already w/blinkers?
POST POSITION -- MIDDLE POSTS HAVE WON MOST OF THE TIME SINCE 2004
Since 1971, Preakness fields with 13 or fewer starters have resulted in at least one winner from each post position. Post positions from 4 to 8 have won nine of the last 15 runnings of the Preakness. Smarty Jones won from post 6 in 2004. Afleet Alex won from the 12 in 2005. Bernadini won from the 8 in 2006. Curlin won from the 4 in 2007. Big Brown won from the 6 in 2008. Rachel Alexandra won from the 13 in 2009. Lookin at Lucky won from the lucky 7 in 2010. Shackleford won from post 5 in 2011. I’ll Have Another won from post 9 in 2012. Oxbow won from post 6 in 2013. California Chrome won from post 3 in 2014. American Pharoah won from post 1 in 2015. Exaggerator won from post 5 in 2016. Cloud Computing won from post 2 in 2017. Justify won from post 7 in 2018..
The last winner from post 1 before American Pharoah in 2015 was Tabasco Cat in 1994. However, a large number of horses in post 1 since 1994 were sent off at fairly high odds, so it's difficult to conclude that post 1 is a serious negative. As for Tabasco Cat, he settled in fourth two and three lengths behind the pace, bid entering the far turn and took command around the furlong marker. Orb broke from position 1 in 2013 and lost after he couldn't get to the outside.
Odds-on favorites (1-1 odds or lower) at the Preakness...........
21 of the last 31 odds-on favorites have won the Preakness, a high mark at 67.7%. The last winners were:
2018 Justify 2/5 2015 Amer. Phar. 4/5 2014 Calif. Chrome 1/2 2018 Big Brown 1/5 2004 Smarty Jones 3/5
The last losers were Orb in 2013 at 3/5 odds and Nyquist at 3/5 odds in 2016.
Post Positions and Odds.
1. War of Will (4/1) 2. Bourbon War (12/1) 3. Warrior's Charge (12/1) 4. Improbable (5/2) 5. Owendale (10/1) 6. Market King (30/1) 7. Alwaysmining (8/1) 8. Signalman (30/1) 9. Bodexpress (20/1) 10. Everfast (50/1) 11. Laughing Fox (20/1) 12. Anothertwistafate (6/1) 13. Win Win Win (15/1)
By the way, average age of the Preakness jockeys this year is 34 years old, Mike Smith the oldest at 53 and Tyler Gaffalione at 24 the youngest..........
Final positions and Payouts for 2018 Preakness Stakes..........
Finish Position, Name, Finish Margin 1. Justify 2. Bravazo, beaten 1/2 length 3. Tenfold, beaten 3/4 length 4. Good Magic, beaten 1 length 5. Lone Sailor, beaten 2 lengths 6. Sporting Chance, beaten 10 3/4 lengths 7. Diamond King, beaten 12 1/4 lengths 8. Quip, beaten 46 lengths
Betting
Justify paid $2.80 to win, $2.80 to place and $2.60 to show Bravavo paid $$7.60 to place and $4.80 to show Tenfold paid $6.80 to show
The $2 exacta returned $27.40. The $1 trifecta paid $148.30, and the $1 super paid $372.50.
Link for Friday and Saturday wagers at Pimlico..........
http://www.pimlico.com/handicapping/wagering-format
I wanted people to look over AlwaysMining, a Maryland horse who has been tearing it up at Laurel for months now. My neighbor, who was all over Country House in the Derby- has picked this horse for the Preakness. Here's some extended details about the horse.........he's currently around 8-1 ML odds, so the word is out on him already.
ALWAYSMINING (MD) Trainer: Kelly Rubley Owner: Runnymede Racing Breeder: Avla Pitts Sire (Sire’s Sire, Dam): Stay Thirsty (Bernardini, Marozia) Dam (Dam’s Sire, Dam): What Will Be (Anees, Che Sara Sara) Dosage Profile (Points) Index: 4-7-9-0-0 (20) 3.44 Foal Date: March 10, 2016
$130,000 Keeneland September 2017 A gelding
JOCKEY: Daniel Centeno
He finished fourth twice and third once in his first three starts, which came at Keeneland (one start) and Churchill Downs (two starts).
In his fourth career start, Alwaysmining broke his maiden by 5 1/2 lengths in June at Laurel Park for his original trainer, Laura Wohlers, then was fifth in one start for trainer Eddie Graham before being sent to trainer Rubley.
After struggling to finish seventh over a soft turf course in the Laurel Futurity, he won by 10 lengths in the slop on Oct. 27 at Laurel. He led throughout in that one, his second start for Rubley.
In the Dec. 8 Maryland Juvenile Futurity going seven furlongs at Laurel Park, Alwaysmining went straight to the front under Daniel Centeno and stayed there to get his first stakes victory. Alwaysmining, who was sent off at 3-1, was timed in a sprightly 1:21.91 on a track rated fast. Alwaysmining was pressed by 50-1 long shot V.I.P. Ticket through a quarter-mile in 22.83 while tracked by Tremont Stakes winner Our Braintrust. James F. Lewis III Stakes winner and 3-2 favorite Scrap Copper joined the chase after a half-mile in 45.34. Centeno shook up Alwaysmining leaving the quarter pole, opening up by 3 1/2 lengths turning for home and won by 2 1/2 lengths. Our Braintrust stayed on for second, 2 1/4 lengths ahead of Scrap Copper, followed by Thatwouldbegrand, Sky Magician, Trifor Gold, Outofthepark and V.I.P Ticket.
Kelley Rubley: “I’ve been very happy with how he’s been training coming into this race. The last race was obviously quite impressive. I think the fun part about this horse is that he’s versatile. He’s won at a mile, he won at 5 1/2 and now seven, so the possibilities are endless. We’ll see how he comes back from this. We’re going to enjoy today.”
Daniel Centeno: “He won really good last time, and I really liked him. They asked me if I wanted to come and I said yes. I was watching the races and looking at the track, and it seemed a little fast, so we tried to get a good position. He took the lead and made it easy all the way to the wire.”
Alwaysmining won his next start, too, the Heft Stakes at Laurel Park on Dec. 29. With Centeno aboard, they again raced to the early lead and remained in front through seven furlongs on 1:22.60. Initial fractions were 22.72 and 46.10. Win Win Win finished second, 1 1/2 length back after ceding the winner about 10 lengths in the early running. It was six more lengths to the next finisher. The chart for those two says, "Alwaysmining set the pace near the inner rail, drifted wide leaving the turn, angled to the two path in upper stretch and dug in under pressure. Win Win Win broke a bit awkwardly in behind, moved up two wide on the turn, was taken to the inner rail entering the stretch, reached a striking position inside the winner in mid stretch and continued gamely."
Daniel Centeno to DRF: "We had the one hole, so I wanted to come out running. They let me go to the lead, and he held it the whole way."
Jan. 26 NOTE: Going to the Miracle Wood next. If all goes well, two turns would be next in the picture.
Feb. 12 NOTE: Alwaysmining is Triple Crown nominated. Apologies for stating otherwise earlier, and thanks to The Commish for the heads-up.
In the one-turn, one-mile Miracle Wood Stakes at Laurel Park on Feb. 16, the 3-5 favorite Alwaysmining opened up in the stretch to win by 4 1/4 lengths in 1:35.2 7 . There was a nice ride by Daniel Centeno, who glanced back at the competition in the backstretch and who shook up his willing runner at the top of the lane. Gray Magician, who was 1-5 in the early betting and sent off at 2-1, finished second after closely pursuing the winner early with Flavien Prat in the saddle. Tybalt closed from last but flattened out in the stretch and was nosed out at the wire to finish third. Six ran. Alwaysmining's early fractions were 24.23, 47.51 and 1:11.29.
Kelly Rubley: “I thought it was brilliant. We got to go :24 for the first quarter, which was ideal. I thought we’d get some pressure today, so that was perfect. They let him get away with it and Danny felt he had a lot of horse at the end."
Daniel Centeno: "We got the inside hole again today and just wanted to break sharp and get the lead. He broke sharp and ran strong.We went to the lead and made an easy lead all the way to the wire."
March 8 NOTE: Nominated to the Private Terms Stakes set for March 16.
March 9 NOTE: Trainer Rubley said after a workout and ahead of Alwaysmining's debut at two turns, “I was very happy with the work. He went nice in 48 and one and galloped out strong, so fingers crossed. He’s definitely continuing to move forward. I think he’s starting to fill out a little bit and he’s maturing. He’s doing very well. “We’ve nominated him to a few races (including Sunland Derby). I think we’re probably likely to run in the Private Terms. This looks like the most logical spot to try it. We don’t have to ship and we get to see how he handles it in a nice, safe environment that he loves.”
Alwaysmining made it look easy while extending his win streak to five races in the Private Terms Stakes at Laurel Park on March 16, his first race around two turns. It was a front-running effort and resulted in 6 3/4-length win margin. Breaking from post 3 as the 1-2 favorite in a field of seven, Alwaysmining found himself on the lead with stakes-placed Joevia settling into second and Miracle Wood third-place finisher Tybalt in third through a quarter-mile in 24.38, and opening up by four lengths after a half in 48.44. Joevia closed the gap to two lengths after six furlongs went in 1:12.66, but he was unable to keep up as Alwaysmining gained separation once straightened for home. He steadily pulled clear of his rivals and completed the distance of about 1 1/16 mile in 1:42.65.
Kelly Rubley: “That’s what we were hoping we’d see. He looks like he’s galloping, just relaxed. He’s a very classy horse. My biggest concern was, it’s really a short jump to the first turn here when we go a mile and a sixteenth, and if we didn’t clear it, I wasn’t sure how our trip would play out. Obviously, he had no problem jumping out on top. I was extremely impressed with this race. Danny said he never even had to use the stick on him, which I think is phenomenal. He’s just doing it for fun. We’ll see (what's next). Every time we win we get more excited, of course.”
Daniel Centeno: The plan was like always, to try to break sharp and go to the lead. I know (Joevia) was the other speed in the race, so I was looking to see what he’d do. When we went to the first turn, I looked and he took back a little bit, and my horse was going easy on the lead all the way.”
THE NEXT DAY: Jockey Centeno said, “He’s doing better and better every race and gaining more confidence. We’re going to find out more about him when he runs against better horses, but this horse can run. He’s smart, he’s professional and he does everything right. You can pretty much do whatever you want with him, and Kelly is doing a great job keeping him sound and fit and sharp. I know the owners and Kelly are going to talk about what’s next, but no matter where he goes, I’m going to ride him and we’ll see what happens."
April 3 NOTE: Per a report at Horse Racing Nation, Alwaysmining's next target is the Frederico Tesio, and connections hope the Preakness is next. “The big thing with him being a gelding is longevity,” said racing manager Joe Cassidy.
April 7 NOTE: Trainer Rubley said after yesterday's workout, “I was impressed with him. He did it very easily. It was a very, very solid work. You’re somewhat surprised when you look at the clock, because it doesn’t look like he’s going that fast, that’s for sure. We nominated to everything to cover our bases, but I’m very happy with the path we’ve chosen for this horse. I think we’re doing the right thing by the horse. He just continues to move forward. I have no complaints. Right now, we’re looking forward to the 20th. We’ll work next weekend, and then we’re planning to enter for the Tesio if everything goes well."
April 13 NOTE: Runnymede racing manager Joe Cassidy said, “He’s such a nice horse; he just keeps on trying,” said. “We’re very excited about going to the Tesio. It’s a great race with a great history, and we’re looking forward to being there.” Rival trainer Graham Motion said, “That horse is very good. Kelly has done a great job with him. She’s been very conservative, picked her spots with him very well. It’s going to take a really good horse to step up and beat him. I think you’re probably going to see him in the Preakness, I would imagine.”
April 17 NOTE: Racing manager Joe Cassidy said, “Kelly’s very happy with the horse. The great thing about this horse is, after it’s over he switches right back off. He’s just a sweet horse to be around. He’s a lovely horse, so the Bentleys quite enjoy being able to go to the barn and pet him and give him cookies and that kind of thing. All the way around, it’s been a great experience for them. They couldn’t be happier. My gosh, I wish it was tomorrow. This is another question for him. He has to get the mile and an eighth. We don’t want to put too much in front of him. He has to get the distance. It’s always a question for these young horses. We know he’ll show up, and hopefully we’re not asking him to do more than he’s up for.”
In the April 20 Frederico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park, Alwaysmining delivered for the sixth straight time, winning by 11 1/2 lengths under Daniel Centeno. The plan was to go to the lead from the gate, but after breaking smoothly from post 2, Alwaysmining soon found himself boxed in when Bozzini took command from post 1 and Trifor Gold came over from post 4 to take second position. They went around the first turn that way, with Alwaysmining two lengths back of the pace in third. After a quarter-mile in a slow 25.00, the pace quickened and the half was recorded in 48.87 -- and Alwaysmining was four lengths behind. Centeno guided Alwaysmining to the outside and he struck the lead on the backstretch heading to the far turn as Bozzini began a retreat with six furlongs timed in 1:12.97. Soon after, the race was all but over with the only question being how far Alwaysmining would prevail as Trifor Gold chased him. Centeno showed the whip down the stretch but otherwise engaged in a steady hand ride, and Alwaysmining finished the 1 1/8 mile in 1:50.12. Trifor Gold finished second, followed by Bozzini, Dixie Drawl and Tybalt. Majid was scratched.
Kelly Rubley: "It was good to see him settle. He showed he doesn't need the lead. He'll get two or three days off. This horse loves to train. As long as we come back ok, that’s our goal. You just hate to get overconfident, but this is what I had expected to happen, so I’m really glad it came true. We’re all very excited. It’s a fabulous day. Honestly, I was glad to see that he settled and he was able to relax. It looked like it got a little tight, but Danny didn’t really think it did. Somebody had to test us sooner or later. I’m glad we got it out of the way here, and I’m confident that he handles it well. ...(W)e actually had a bit more of a challenge at the start of this race and I think that was good to see, that this horse is as versatile as we thought he is. He didn’t have a problem relaxing, and then when it was time to go, he went.”
Daniel Centeno: “The plan was to try to make the lead, but I didn’t want to chase them, so I let them go. I decided to take him back and put him behind them. He was comfortable, nice and relaxed. I put him on the outside on the backstretch and when it was time to go, he took off. (The Preakness) will be a completely different game. I told Kelly, he’ll be completely relaxed. We don’t need to put him on the lead. We can do whatever we want with him.”
April 27 NOTE: Trainer Rubley said, “He came out of the race great, honestly, He’s been back galloping this week. He’s galloping nice and relaxed and very happy with himself. He’ll breeze next weekend, and we’ll take it from there. “It’s been quiet this week. I like it. There seems to be more on with the Triple Crown but that’s OK. We’re having fun. (The owners) are great. They’re having a ball. They’ve been shopping. They’ve got their outfits picked out and everything’s looking good. He’s a great horse to be around. He’s really fun. He’s so laid back. Everybody’s happy.”
May 3 NOTE: "Trainer Rubley said, "I actually thought it was a perfect work – out in 12 and change and finished up in 11. He went a nice 49 and out in 1:01. We’re very happy. I’d say his confidence level continues to improve. My rider thought he was a bit aggressive today, which is great to hear. I’m actually very happy with that. He could easily go in 46 if we allowed it, so this was a nice, relaxed, comfortable work for him. He’s worked on the Tapeta all winter, so we’ve opted to not change anything at this point. The Tapeta seems to be a very consistent track and that’s kind of what our goal is at this point right now. The rain and the precipitation doesn’t affect it as much as the dirt, so we’re feeling confident using that.I think that was probably my favorite race so far in the fact that we did answer that question – does he need the lead,” Rubley said. “We always thought that he did not, that he would settle, so it’s finally proven to us. So we’re very happy about that. He will work one more time, but everything will stay normal and continue in his usual routine. He needs to be on the grounds by noon on Thursday before the Preakness, so our goal is to just keep everything normal in his routine and ship at the last possible minute.”
WORKOUTS SINCE JANUARY 1
Jan. 19, Alwaysmining 48:00 Breezing synthetic 1/16 at FAI Jan. 26, Alwaysmining 1.01:20 Breezing synthetic 1/16 at FAI Feb. 4, Alwaysmining 1.02:00 Breezing synthetic 3/8 at FAI Feb. 10, Alwaysmining 48:00 Breezing synthetic 1/9 at FAI March 2, Alwaysmining 49:20 Breezing synthetic 13/26 at FAI March 9, Alwaysmining 48:20 Breezing synthetic 1/31 at FAI March 30, Alwaysmining 49:60 Breezing synthetic 6/13 at FAI April 6, Alwaysmining 1.00:00 Breezing synthetic 1/17 at FAI April 13, Alwaysmining 49:00 Breezing synthetic 3/19 at FAI May 3, Alwaysmining 49:00 Breezing 2/10 synthetic at FAI May 10, Alwaysmining 48:20 Breezing synthetic 1/13 at FAI
Mike Smith interview.........
Smith took these questions off camera after being interviewed by NBC Sports on Thursday at Santa Anita.
Q. You’ve never ridden Improbable, but you’ve seen him run a number of times. What are your thoughts about riding him for the first time in the Preakness?
A. “I’m extremely excited to get back there, especially to ride this colt. I still think there’s talent there that we haven’t seen.To be back riding in this year’s Preakness, with Bob, WinStar, all the connections, back together again, it kinda means a little more. We’ll see if we can pull it off, he’s definitely got the ability to do so.”
Q. He got beat about 3 1/2 lengths in the Derby. What about his running style and how do you approach this race with him, based upon what you’ve seen?
A. “Depending upon who’s actually going to run and where we draw, I could see him running a big race and I could see this playing out with two different scenarios. I’ve got some ideas about him, hopefully I can pull a race out of him that he hasn’t quite run before. I try to figure out some ways to do that…Instead of just doing the same old thing.”
Q. You’re known as “Big Money” Mike, and it’s for good reason. You’ve often said that even very early in your career, you liked the pressure that goes with being in big-race situations. Why?
A. “When you’re in a big race and you’re the one to beat, it just kind of takes me to a different level, a different kind of focus. I really like to try to figure out why the horse I’m riding is so good and what makes him so good, and really use those tactics to try and beat the competition. I’ve been blessed to have pulled it off a few times and we’re gonna try again.”
Q. It sure sounds like you believe Improbable has quite a bit of upside over what he’s already shown?
A. “I certainly believe he has better races in him, and the fact that Bob’s running him back gives me confidence, because he’s not running the other two (Game Winner and Roadster). So, this horse must’ve come out of the race in really good shape. And I’m sure that’s why he’s running…He should have a really good foundation now and be really, really ready for a race like this.”
Q. As you know, there’s been a great deal of controversy surrounding the disqualification of the winner, Maximum Security. You finished mid-pack with Cutting Humor, but what is your take on the incident at the top of the stretch?
A. “In this situation, I don’t think Louie Saez (Maximum Security) was trying to be unsafe. I don’t think it was something he did on his own. The horse saw something and went out for whatever reason… Whether he saw something, or somebody hit him from behind, whatever it was, he certainly veered out and it wasn’t the rider’s fault…The horse took him there.”
Q. Following the race, a good friend of yours, Jon Court, who lodged a claim of foul against Maximum Security, said that he thought all jockeys, regardless of whether they’re riding stakes or claiming horses, need to be safety conscious.
A. “We all need to understand we’re on some extremely delicate and extremely valuable horses and we need to take care of each one of them as best we can. This was just a situation where no one was looking to do anything crazy, it just happened.”
HORSES THAT WON THE KENTUCKY DERBY AND PREAKNESS SINCE 1973 (18 PREAKNESS WINNERS)
1973 SECRETARIAT, Triple Crown winner, 3-2 odds in Derby, 3-10 in Preakness 1977 SEATTLE SLEW, Triple Crown winner, 1-2 in Derby, 2-5 in Preakness 1978 AFFIRMED, Triple Crown winner, 9-5 in Derby, 1-2 in Preakness 1979 SPECTACULAR BID, 3-5 in Derby, 1-10 in Preakness 1981 PLEASANT COLONY, 7-2 in Derby, 3-2 in Preakness 1987 ALYSHEBA, 8-1 in Derby, 2-1 in Preakness 1989 SUNDAY SILENCE, 3-1 in Derby, 2.1-1 in Preakness 1997 SILVER CHARM, 4-1 in Derby, 3.1-1 in Preakness 1998 REAL QUIET, 8-1 in Derby, 5-2 in Preakness 1999 CHARISMATIC, 31-1 in Derby, 8.4-1 in Preakness 2002 WAR EMBLEM, 20-1 in Derby, 2.8-1 in Preakness 2003 FUNNY CIDE, 12-1 in Derby, 1.9-1 in Preakness 2004 SMARTY JONES, 4-1 in Derby, 7-10 in Preakness 2008 BIG BROWN, 2-1 in Derby, 1-5 in Preakness 2012 I’LL HAVE ANOTHER, 15-1 in Derby, 3.2-1 in Preakness 2014 CALIFORNIA CHROME 5-2 in Derby, 1-2 in Preakness 2015 AMERICAN PHAROAH 5-2 in Derby, 4-5 in Preakness 2018 JUSTIFY 5-2 in Derby, 2-5 in Preakness
BREEDING LOCATIONS OF PREAKNESS WINNERS
Kentucky: 98 Maryland: 8 Florida: 7 Pennsylvania: 6 Virginia: 6 California: 5 New Jersey: 4 New York: 3 Tennessee: 2 Ohio: 1 Texas: 1 Canada: 1 United Kingdom: 1
TOTAL: 143
Most recent winners not bred in Kentucky: California Chrome (CA) 2014 Afleet Alex (FL) 2005 Smarty Jones (PA) 2004 Funny Cide (NY) 2003 Silver Charm (FL) 1997 Hansel (VA) 1991
PREAKNESS WINNERS SINCE 1973 Year, Name, Placement in Kentucky Derby, Odds in Derby
1973 Secretariat--Won Kentucky Derby at 3-2 odds 1974 Little Current--Fifth in Derby at 22-1 1975 Master Derby--Fourth in Derby at 5-1 1976 Elocutionist--Third in Derby at 10-1 1977 Seattle Slew--Won Derby at 1-2 1978 Affirmed--Won Derby at 9-5 1979 Spectacular Bid--Won Derby at 3-5 1980 Codex--Did not compete in Derby 1981 Pleasant Colony--Won Derby at 7-2 1982 Aloma’s Ruler--Did not compete in Derby 1983 Deputed Testamony--Did not compete in Derby 1984 Gate Dancer--Fourth in Derby at 18-1; DQ'd to fifth 1985 Tank’s Prospect--Seventh in Derby at 11-1 1986 Snow Chief--Eleventh in Derby at 2-1 1987 Alysheba--Won Derby at 8-1 1988 Risen Star--Third in Derby at 5-1 1989 Sunday Silence--Won Derby at 3-1 1990 Summer Squall--Second in Derby at 2-1 1991 Hansel--Tenth in Derby at 5-2 1992 Pine Bluff--Fifth in Derby at 10-1 1993 Prairie Bayou--Second in Derby at 4-1 1994 Tabasco Cat--Sixth in Derby at 6-1 1995 Timber Country--Third in Derby at 3-1 1996 Louis Quatorze--Sixteenth in Derby at 13-1 1997 Silver Charm--Won Derby at 4-1 1998 Real Quiet--Won Derby at 8-1 1999 Charismatic--Won Derby at 31-1 2000 Red Bullet--Did not compete in Derby 2001 Point Given--Fifth in Derby at 9-5 2002 War Emblem--Won Derby at 20-1 2003 Funny Cide--Won Derby at 12-1 2004 Smarty Jones--Won Derby at 4-1 2005 Afleet Alex--Third in Derby at 9-2 2006 Bernardini--Did not compete in Derby 2007 Curlin--Third in Derby at 5-1 2008 Big Brown--Won Derby at 2-1 2009 Rachel Alexandra--Did not compete in Derby 2010 Lookin at Lucky--Sixth in Derby at 6-1 2011 Shackleford--Fourth in Derby at 23-1 2012 I’ll Have Another--Won Derby at 15-1 2013 Oxbow--Sixth in Derby at 24-1 2014 California Chrome--Won Derby at 5-2 2015 American Pharoah--Won Derby at 5-2 2016 Exaggerator--Second in Derby at 5-1 2017 Cloud Computing--Did not compete in Derby 2018 Justify--Won Derby at 5-2
TIGHT TURNS AT PIMLICO?
It's a myth. Both Churchill Downs and Pimlico are one mile in circumference. Pimlico's legendary "tight turns" are no tighter than those at Churchill Downs. Churchill's turns are tighter than those at Keeneland, which is a 1 1/16-mile oval, or the ones at Gulfstream Park, which has a circumference of 1 1/8 mile.
Jeff Siegel (of HRTV) hosted a Bloodhorse.com chat about 12 years ago and was asked about the issue. His response: "I recall about 20 years ago during the Preakness telecast, ABC did the very same thing -- superimposing the Churchill Downs racetrack over the Pimlico racetrack to prove that the turns are not tighter at Pimlico like everybody seems to think...."
SHORTER STRETCH AT PIMLICO?
Pimlico does have a shorter stretch than the one at Churchill Downs, enough that it could make a difference in a close finish.
Distance from last turn to finish line at Churchill Downs: 1,234 1/2 feet.*
Distance from last turn to finish line at Pimlico: 1,152 feet -- 82 1/2 feet shorter than Churchill's. That's 27 1/2 yards -- or 1/8th of a furlong -- shorter than the Churchill Downs stretch.
You are correct about turns at Pimlico. Somebody did an overlay of the CD course and Pimlico and they pretty much almost match each other re: ovals. Also talked to many photographers who have been to both. As for alwaysmining, I don't feel I can get fair odds on him, as the locals will be hitting him hard, and I think his odds will be somewhat depressed below what I think they should be. Preakness isn't a race I usually even wager, but I will give this running a try. Superfecta seems almost impossible, I mean, unlss you can come up with Zetterholm, Yawanna Twist, etc. LOL
Great posts.
I was never a big fan of this race but of course I will be betting it anyway. I'm looking at a boxed super this year. Of course will use Alwaysmining and Improbable. I actually like Owendale very much for this race. I''ll take a shot with his odds and hope he passes some of those shorter odds. Most likely War of Will as my 4th guy.
I'll post my main pick the day of the race......way too soon for me. But it does appear to be more wide open this year. I'll be posting stuff regularly thru race day, as time allows.
I am nowhere near putting a ticket together, but win win win and warriors charge will be on every exacta, trifecta and superfecta for sure.
Great stuff here all ... thank you !!! Looking forward to your plays too ... GL !
Andy Beyer (Beyer Speed Figures) has a DRF Podcast up with picks to numerous races on Fri and Saturday.....
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyLuOci47nk
Beyers Preakness picks in order: War of Will, Improbable and Bourbon War
Not sure if any of you have ever heard of Value Capper software..........this guy produces videos on some big races, not to tout picks but to instruct how to use his software and what it all means. It's rather long, around 35 minutes- but it's very interesting and well worth a watch if you have the time. I'm not going to give out his picks, as I'd have to explain a lot which I'd rather not take the time to do- but I guarantee you'll come away with some ideas on how to bet the Preakness.
What I will say though is this- if you look strictly at the numbers, it looks like it will be a fast pace in the Preakness- setting up for some closers to hit the board in the end at some nice prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AuLb1d-94dU