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Apr 1

how about that jason servis?

6 comments

I wrote about this elswehere back in January but I'll just say it once more again.  45% + 1 (FL Derby) That's a mockery of the great trainers who never broke 25% on their best streaks. None of the best hall of fame trainers ever won at a 45% clip.  Never. Take it as you want, connect the dots......whatever. I've seen him take horses off a 9 month layoff, they even miss workouts, then he raises them up a class or 2, and they win like they're stakes champions.....and/or improve by 20 Beyer Speed Points to boot LOL .  Have you WATCHED that stuff?   He must be like the best trainer in the universe to do some of these things. Right.  The odds changes on Firenze Fire after the gates opened was how I got started watching him.

He's got himself an undefeated stakes winner with a gate in the Derby and his record definitely demands respect.

Apr 1Edited: Apr 1

I hope it's okay for me to post my opinion on contentious subject matter. If not, feel free to reprimand me. :) I respect your work, and also know your specialty is pedigree and following horses. At that, you are superlative. I follow trainers, and look as carefully at their stats as you do their horses' sire and mare numbers. It's at least as important, esp. since I am increasingly concerned (as are others) about the integrity of a sport that I have come to love. I look at their body of work.....not just big stakes races. People are leaving the game, even people like Steve Roman. There's a reason for this. (I may not be far behind after 25 years). As long as people support the "move-em-up" guys, and there is no out of competition testing, and no central federal regulation, the game lacks the kind of integrity that some of us demand. In the Firenze Fire race last year, I remember when Timeform had the horse projected in the Dwyer at Belmont running 115. (119 was his best, but the race wasn't one to go off for numerous reasons.) Yet, the horse ran 126, the horse ran off the screen (and was acompanied by a rather huge odds drop right before 0 MTP). What a shame some of us can't find celebratory feelings about what could have been a nice warm fuzzy feeling about a horse but stuff like this kinda ruins it for many of us. It's making a mockery of the game, and as i said, a mockery of all the top Hall of Fame trainers who NEVER broke 25% in their ENTIRE CAREERS. Yet, you say you "respect" 45% + 1? Is it just the % that you admire, or do you look behind the curtain as to how it is achieved? The number of reports from bettors like: "I saw a horse coming off a 9 month break, moved up 2 classes, showed only ONE 3f workout during that entire time, and won like gangbusters at 1 1/16 miles." That's the kind of stuff I look at. Esp. if it happens in clusters with numerous horses under the same trainer. Yes, that happens sometimes. Sometimes, you do GET a great horse. Or a couple of 'em. But it doesn't happen at a 45% rate. Find me some 45%-ers and we can discuss them one-by-one. We all know who they are (esp. if you play the tracks and follow the claiming game merry go round (where horses often return to their original trainers like magic after one race, etc.) I'm supposed to respect a "can't lose" trainer who often has horses missing workouts left and right, yet move up in class in races--- then somehow are "finding more" and winning races in solid fields or running like they've lost their minds. Not for me, Lisa, not for me. Horses aren't machines. They don't work like this. I guess some trainers are just horse whisperers and using gatorade in the water/feed bucket. Maximum Security is a pretty nice horse. He may even be the real deal. He may win the KY Derby. I will not be one who is celebrating should that happen. I hope trainers like Mandella, McAnally, and other trainers who are the true geniuses (and their honesty is beyond question) of racing et. al can turn this sport around

Would love to see a Mott,Mandela Shug trifecta in the derby but it will probably be a Baffert dominated race where everybody will talk about all the reasons why is such a great trainer while ignoring the obvious

Apr 1Edited: Apr 1

Because of the fact that I look at what is running in a horses veins and no so much about what is happening with the human parts around them, I always bank on the horse himself. I place a great deal of emphasis on who exactly was in his chart and how they all blend and mix to make that particular colt move on the track.

 

To be absolutely honest with you, there are only a handful of trainers that I have faith in as it pertains to the horse and his welfare. I do not trust most (#1 being Baffert) and I dont put alot of faith or should I say, I dont put much handicapping effort into them. Most of the trainers that I do respect are overseas to be absolutely frank.

 

I am with you in what you are thinking. But I do not fault the horse though, nor do I bypass the horse and his breeding just because the trainer (or connections) seem fishy. With his guy who won this past weekend in the Florida Derby and the one who came in second - well, their breeding almost demanded that they fly on that track. They will not find that bias at Churchill but there was some rhyme and reason for the top 2 finishers and there was also a good excuse for the hotshot stamina colt Code of Honor placing 3rd. Maximum Security does have, at the very least, a bit more in the tank for a run at 10f over many on that field to date. In that regard, is where the "respect" comes in for me. 101% breeding-wise and chart-wise - NOTHING ELSE!

 

This sport has turned into a money machine for trainers, especially with regards to breeding fees after they win 5 or 6 races under some shady conditions. I feel that most true horsemen can see right through it especially when those horses have crappy breeding in the first place. The sport will never be how it was in the golden age and it is the greedy trainers who turned it that way. They shoved speed into breeding and then they do everything they can to these horses to make them sustain. Vicious cycle.

 

I am just like you in your thinking. I am not afraid to say that there is obvious and blatant crazy sh*t going on in these barns. Take American Pharoah for instance. In the century-plus since the Belmont stakes has run, not one colt ever had a prayer of being anywhere near that board, let alone winning that 12f race with the type of breeding that horse was holding. It compares to the same odds as lightening striking in the same spot 100 times over. Something aided his cause and now the schmucks out there are paying top dollar to breed their mares with him. Breeding will turn into a complete farce in about 40 years at the rate of all of this nonsense. Its out of control.

 

Oh, and dont ever feel weird about posting your opinion on this site! This site is OURS! Strictly handicappers and those who love the horses (and not necessarily the trainers!)

Thank you Lisa. And thank you for reminding me not to disrepect "the horse" because of the humans involved. I sure did love Big Brown. Spent many sleepless nights over him as a matter of fact. Despite I didnt love his connections, I really wanted him to win the T.C. And, thanks for letting me post stuff when I get upset. :)

I always viewed those who "get upset" over stuff as the most passionate sort of people! There is plenty to get upset about when it comes to that side of the horse racing business!!!

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