1. Omaha Beach- improving Beyer's in each of his races i.e. 62,78,80,83,90,96, and101.
2. Game Winner- Best Thoro-Graph pattern of any 3 year old.
3. Tacitus- Career co-highest Brisnet speed figure and fastest figure this year.
4. Roadster- Only running in 5-6 horse fields, only 1 race over 1 mile and Smith jumps off him.
5. Improbable- Acted up loading in gate in Arkansas Derby, and doesn't seem comfortable with blinkers yet. Still, hard to knock.
6. Maximum Security- in past 2 workouts combined, he worked slowest of 100 horses. Unconventional trainer, bizarre works and odd claiming background.
The rest when time allows.
7. WinWinWin- 2 turn figures not competitive with best in Derby.
8. Vekoma- Not getting much respect for what he's accomplished.
9. Spinoff- Will John Velazquez stick with Spinoff or jump to Code of Honor? 6 week layoff.
10. Tax- Pedigree shouts 1 1/4 miles and only horse to run 3 double digit brisnet figures, all at 1 1/8 miles.
11. By My Standards- Seems to have outrun his pedigree at 1 1/8 miles, can he handle longer at 1 1/4?
12. Haikal- Barely got passed 64-1 shot Math Wizard for Show in Wood Memorial. Only 1 race at 2 turns.
More as time allows this evening.
Johnny Velasquez chose Honor Code. Manny Franco will ride Spinoff.
Let's try and wrap up the rest of the horses........
13. Bodexpress- improving speed ratings, 1 race above 1 mile, has NEVER won.
14. Gray Magician- Has never won above Mdn 53K.
15. Long Range Toddy- 4 lifetime wins, poor performance on sloppy track.
16. Country House- Never won above Mdn50K.
17. Plus Que Parfait- 3 straight declining speed ratings in graded races.
18. Cutting Humor- 5 of 6 races in money, never in a race above G3.
19. War of Will- 6 graded stakes races already at 4 different tracks.
20. Code of Honor- 4 of 5 races in money, 6 work out bullets since 12/18.
Brisnet speed fig last race < 95: TOSS! Plus Que Parfait Long Range Toddy Grey Magician
90 or better BSF at 2: Vekoma Game Winner Tax Improbable War of Will (jan of 3rd year)
Win Win Win - 5 Kentucky Derby winners and 4 Belmont winners in his pedigree
Improbable - The configurations and balance of both the chef and mares numbers are almost exact to American Pharoah.
War of Will - The configurations and balance of both the chef and mare numbers are almost exact to Big Brown.
Code of Honor - The configurations and balance of both the chef and mare numbers that closely resemble Code have not been seen since 1962. From 1940 to 1962, he closely resembles 6 winners, most notable include Carry Back and Citation. He has a classic vintage set-up.
Maximum Security resembles Lil E Tee.
Spinoff and Country House resemble Sunday Silence.
No other probable on the field has a close match to any other previous winner dating back to 1940.
Here is problem I see with some of this going forward. A friend of mine pointed this out to me and I will pass it on. With chefs not being updated. Who will be updating the chefs de race as time passes? Roman did not make Pioneer of the Nile a chef. He did not make Tapit a chef. Many people believe they should be chefs de race. If Pioneer of the Nile was made a chef then American Pharoah's dosage profile would be all wrong though, right?. How long can we compute numbers when there are no new chefs being created/updated? I think this is an important question to answer. True Nicks noted this in 2018 when they did a hypothetical mating where "the Dosage Figures that were all zeroes – zeroes for each category in the Dosage Profile; a Dosage Index of zero; and a Center of Distribution of zero..... The sire in question is a son of Candy Ride out of a Deputy Minister mare, and the dam is a daughter of Henny Hughes, the sire of the magnificent Beholder, and broodmare sire of Monomoy Girl, the Champion Three-Year-Old Filly elect of 2018. . ..." The zeros are a result of dosage not being updated. "IF there are no chefs in the first four generations, we subsequently fail to generate a Dosage Score" So, just like Varola's chef lists, Romans chefs will soon recede deeper and deeper into a pedigree. W/out somebody studiously updating and making chefs de race, " dosage itself is beginning to disappear from modern pedigrees. " I see no way around this. 5 years from now there won't be any useful dosage profiles because there won't be any chefs from which to generate a USEFUL profile. Someone with a backgound in breeding and/or math will come up with a new system. They will have to. ???
A colleague of Steven Roman - Steven Miller is updating the chefs. He is based in the UK.
Galileo and Pivitol are the two newest chefs. https://semiller5.wixsite.com/thedosagesystem/latest-cdr-additions
Zeros in a chefs profile of course will depict no chefs in the first 4 generations. WHEN there ARE chefs in the first four generations and there are numbers found listed in their profile, they can indeed produce a zero CD. It is the outcome of the balance. Code of Honor is a good example of that.
Pioneerof the Nile has NOT reached the criteria as of yet, but that does not mean that in a few years he won't. There are less than 300 chefs because of the exact specifications and certain criteria they must meet on a consistent basis and that takes incredible time to meet. Additionally, when chefs are named, the mare influence in the progeny is taken into HIGH consideration. It may NOT have been the sire who influenced the new colt, it could have indeed been the mare in some of those cases. (Read quote of Steve Miller below)
Windy, please don't take this the wrong way as I appreciate everyone's opinions very much, but I will be honest with you... This post that I wrote here will be the only time I defend dosage for obvious reasons.
A quote from Steven Miller...
“One of the biggest stumbling blocks people have with the Dosage system is when they see successful (or simply favourite) stallions excluded from the chef-de-race list and imagine it an omission or oversight. Stallions are assessed on an ongoing basis and can only be designated chef-de-race when there is sufficient evidence of prepotent stamina traits from a significant population of offspring.
By prepotent we mean over and above what the mare brings to the table. Note that we examine prepotent stamina characteristics when using Dosage and not ability as such in any absolute sense.
Quote from Steven Miller as to why Danehill has not yet been named a Chef:
Danehill’s average winning distance (AWD) for his progeny is 8.9 furlongs (Dr Roman has a figure of 8.19 for his North American Stakes winners). However, it is not simply the average we look at but the distribution of winners. Danehill throws up both speedier types and those with much more stamina (including Derby, 12 furlongs, and Ascot Gold Cup winners, 20 furlongs), suggesting that his influence is not prepotent in terms of stamina but more a consequence of which mare he is matched to.
In the fourth generation of ANY immediate Candy Ride son or daughter, the chefs that will always be present (no matter the mare) are Fappiano, Herbager and Blushing Groom - therefore, it would be impossible for any son of Candy Ride to have zeros across his entire profile.
Never offended in any way, and hope it is reciprocal, to have honest and candid *conversation* about horses, systems, what-not. No worries. ;) Thanks for the links and quotes.
Absolutely reciprocal! One thing I have found throughout the years with Dosage Theory is that most horseplayers or those interested in horseracing or pedigree have a very narrow understanding of the subject. Most do not get the idea that even if a sire produced 100 graded stakes winners, the probability that it was only him who was responsible for that winning optimum distance and that the mares had 0% to do with it is 100 to one. For dosage, the AWD is everything, not so much just winning offspring.
It all revolves around distance.
To be designated a chef in a specific category, be it Brilliant, Intermediate, Classic, Solid or Professional, it must be determined that the sire was responsible as opposed to the mare he mated with. It takes years and years of documentation and research.
Because of all of the analysis that goes into the research and the criteria that must be met, there is no better predictor of any stallion than one who is designated a chef.
What I fear is not the lack of chefs, which I actually like alot, but more about how the use of enhancing medications produces serious winners on the track and when they become stallions, their true inheritance will be blinded and the documentation over the years will affect chef designations. It will eventually disintegrate.
Sorry for hijacking your thread br!
VERY interesting stuff........
Some additional comments.........
1, Omaha Beach- already beat Game Winner and Improbable.
2. Roadster- In the Fall, he was Baffert's best horse in the barn. Now- ???
3. War of Will- Mark Casse has said this horse wasn't right in the Rebel, but now appears back to his old self.
4. Tacitus- Bill Mott doesn't come to the Derby, unless he has a super talented horse.
5. Maximum Security- Won the Fla. derby on the front end, and won't have it as easy on Derby day.
Lisa said: "Improbable - The configurations and balance of both the chef and mares numbers are almost exact to American Pharoah." Does anyone here want to compare to Baffert's prep campaign for Real Quiet, and tell me what you see? I see a lot of simiilarities between prep of Improbable and Real Quiet, but really want you guys to take a closer look and tell me whatcha see. .
Bafferts horses don't run to their numbers, so there's always that!
br said: " Omaha Beach- already beat Game Winner and Improbable. " Improbable didn't get the best of rides in the Rebel or Ark Derby.
Lisa, since it's probably fresher in your mind than mine, which horses besides Game Winner have the Fappiano?
I don't believe any horses from the Northern Dancer sire line have won the KY Derby until Justify. Many finish in top 4 and are usually Storm Cat descendents. Creative Cause ran 5th, but he had Giants Causeway, not sure what Noble Mission will do. Code of Honor is ND. It was the same for the Nasrullah sire line, until Animal Kingdom snagged a win...that Blushing Groom sire line helped him. (2 of them since 1990 had finished in top 4)
Also trying to find the Big Pretenders like Vino Rosso from last year. Horses w/a lot of stamina on mare side but not enough speed to get the job done. I left him off my ticket last year, really disliked him for the Derby. Or anything actually other than a non-graded race.......Wood was a gift.
You gotta give Vino a little slack. The track was sloppy and that little "speedy" guy was packing a ton of stamina. Magnum Moon too. Not the best of situations for him.
Omaha Beach- a 4 top beyer figure is the kiss of death. less a lone a 6 top.
Game Winner-dont know if he has got any better from 2-3. STill in my top 4.
Tacitus- In my top two. I usually throw out the wood winner . This horse is up to the grid of the derby. Just dont now if he will be to far back .
Roadster- To me to much to soon. Small fileds and only won by 1/2 length to game winner who didn tneed the race. Smith off of him.
Improbable- Dont that Baffert tired blinkers on him close to the derby. that means bob doesnt kown what to do with him. Still think he hits the board.
Maximum Security-Came home the fastest in all of the prep races. has two 100 beyers. I think lthe pace will be slow and he is faster then omaha beach.
the post postions will be a bigger deal this year. Hope all the 6 above draw well so its a even race.
Fun stats.........
22 of the last 25 Derby winners ran a 102 Bris at some point prior to the Derby. That leaves us:
1. Tacitus
2. By My Standards (the word is out on this horse, lots of buzz supposedly)
3. Maximum Security
4. Game Winner
5. Haikal
6. Tax
7. Spinoff
" Bill Mott doesn't come to the Derby, unless he has a super talented horse. "...........how do you know it's not Country House? I don't like Tacitus at all for the win on a dry track. Mare index is too high and he lugs inward, etc. and i think he was getting leg weary. Tax seemed more "solid" to me there. Value is important to me in a risk-laden race, and the deep pocket East Coasters will be all over this one, which I feel will make his odds lower than they acually should be.