Practical Joke, last years winner of the Dwyer Stakes
This year's edition of the Grade 3 Dwyer Stakes features a trio of Kentucky Derby also rans, a horse from the Derby undercard, and some new faces. The reappearance of Mendelssohn is sure to have a few tongues wagging. It's a short seven horse field and a difficult handicapping puzzle. Trying to figure out who will rebound from a poor Derby Day performance is never easy.
Lets look at the field.
1. Seahenge
After trailing Mendelssohn in Europe and Dubai, he showed up here on the Derby undercard in the Pat Day Mile. He didn't run much that day in a race memorable for the slop and the $1700+ exacta it produced when two of the longest shots in a 14 horse field ran 1-2. He did pass a couple in the stretch that day, but never made an impact on the race. Now he shows up here.
I've been waiting for horses that ran from the rear on the outside in Dubai this year on one of the most speed biased racetracks I've ever seen. He probably won't take money with all the attention on Mendlessohn in here, but I'm not going to be surprised if he runs a little bit. Needs a very fast pace, which he is likely to get, and could surprise. I'll forgive the Pat Day in the mud. I think he might win and the price will be right to get involved.
2. Seven Trumpets
Won a high priced NW 3 lifetime optional claimer at Churchill beating a field of six in a race that was very fast early and slow late. He got the perfect setup in that one, but this will be much tougher. I can't see him winning.
3. Rugbyman
Three really nice races versus easier and now he gets the acid test. He has a lot of speed and will be a factor in the race, but can he win it? Asking a lot from an inexperienced horse whose only win came in the slop, but he is regally bred. Will need to improve, but could get a piece of this.
4. Noble Indy
After the Derby and Belmont failures, he shows up here looking for class relief and a more suitable distance. He certainly has speed and will be part of the pace, but I wonder how much the two classic races have taken out of him. There is no shame in losing to Justify, but the way he pitched his tent and looked for a shady spot to lay down in those races has to be concerning. He's a tough one to figure in this race because his best would put him right there, but I'm going to pass.
5. Fixed Income Larry
Broke his maiden in his last in a very fast race, but where did it come from? It was by far his best race to date. He had some trouble at the start behind a very fast pace, then swooped them from behind to win going away. Can he repeat something like that against these horses? I don't think so; I'll pass.
6. Mendelssohn
How far the mighty have fallen! The latest incarnation of the European wonder horse variety, he had everyone gasping at that performance in Dubai when he ran off the TV screen. Came to the Derby looking to be any kind and promptly flopped like many of his predecessors.
In retrospect, the Dubai race was probably enhanced by the ridiculous front end speed bias that existed there this year. For the entire meet, horses with long odds were winning wire to wire by multiple lengths. However, his wins in Europe and the win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf were not aided by anything other than his enormous talent. O'Brien drops him in here hoping to get him back on track, but I see it almost as a sign of weakness.
He could easily destroy this field, but just as easily might have us all shaking our heads wondering what happened. I'm taking a stand against him.
7. Firenze Fire
Another one who flopped in the Derby, but at least he chased the fast pace that day for six furlongs before packing it in. He is logically spotted in here at a distance he should like. He'll get the outside stalkers trip and will be a handful. He is a major contender.
I'm going to pass on Mendelssohn and go with the lesser known O'Brien horse. I like Seahenge and will use Firenze Fire and Rugbyman underneath.
Good luck to everyone who is playing.
I must toss that Derby run for Mendelssohn for two reasons. He lost his shot in the first 10 seconds of that race through no fault of his own. First, he was batted around like a hockey puck by 2 rabbits. It was so obvious. Second, even though he never had any problems on a variety of surfaces and he could have actually liked the mud if he had the chance to run on it - there is a very strong possibility that he did not take to that surface, as is the case with most stamina horses. I think that Mendelssohn gets a raw shake because of his incredible effort on that speedy track in Dubai, as if that is the only reason why that horse won. He is far from a speed horse and yet no other speed demon came close to him on that track. For me, he is by far the most talented in this group, just as he was one of the most talented in that gate in Kentucky. I hope many overlook him, because I will take those odds without a second thought. Rugbyman and Firenze Fire also look like players to me as well but I still need more time looking it over.
Doesn't this seem like an odd spot for him? Why not the Belmont? I just get the feeling they're not as high on him as they were. On the other hand, why didn't they go back overseas? Like I said, he could demolish this field, but I have some reservations.
Aiden O'Brien wants revenge on what they did to him in the Derby. His goal is the Breeders Cup Classic. They probably by-passed the Belmont (I'm glad they did) because God only knows how that horse reacted after the beating he took out of that gate. Most times, after a "lay-off" a good trainer will put his horse into an easier race just to get his feet wet again. Sorta like the way they put Shared Belief back out into an allowance or Le Vent in a short race in Japan. He is going up against 6 speed demons in this short 8f race. He is the only stamina horse on the field. This is a very good test for him and a very hard spot. Aiden probably wants him to get his speed back up because he has the stamina to push it for the Classic. If he can beat these speed guys (every one of them are 3.00 and over) he is gonna show off his talent. If he doesn't beat them all, it is a very good race to get him back to where he needs to be for the Classic. Remember how Hollendorfer put Shared Belief into the 7f Malibu race -- that was a prep for the 9f San Antonio against Chrome. They make them push their speed. I'm not saying Mendelssohn is a lock to win this, but he certainly stands far above in talent and against a field of speed demons, he will have to work. He has already proven that he can demolish speedsters on a speedy track (which truly makes him stand out). He needs to get his game back after the punishment they put him through in Kentucky.
Nice breakdown all ...appreciate your insights .... Leaning Mendelssohn myself after talking with Lisa earlier about Mendelssohn and his chances in the Classic vs Justify ... In the 3 Races in which this Race became a 1 Mile Race ... No horse has won with a DI over 3.00 ...yes only 3 races though ... Horse that have over a 3.00 Dosage this year ... Seven Trumpets DI 3.67 ...Rugbyman DI 3.20 ...FixedIncome Larry DI 3.62 ...Firenze Fire DI 4.14 ... Horse 's that qualify with Dosage of 3.00 and Under ... Seahenge DI 3.00 ...Noble Indy DI 3.00 ... Mendelssohn DI 1.80....
Adding ... No horse has finished in Top 4 Spots the last 3 years ( 12 possible spots ..1st , 2nd , 3rd and 4th ) ...with a Dosage over 3.67 ....I know ...just 3 years ... The 7 Horse Firenze Fire has dosage at 4.14 ... your call on to use in any way ...
Last 3 Years ... ran at 1 Mile ...
No horse has finished in Top 4 Spots the last 3 years ( 12 possible spots ..1st , 2nd , 3rd and 4th )
With a Center Distribution ( CD ) over 0.83 ....
This year's horse over the 0.83 CD ....
Fixedincome Larry....Seven Trumpets ....Seahenge
My own research ..in a linebreeding chart using percentages in which has helped a bit in the past ... by far not a say all .... just my own thing ...
No horse has finished in the Top 4 Spots in the last 3 years if they did not have 4% or more Nearco in their linebreeding ... Every horse horse that finished in top 4 spots had 4 % Nearco or more ....
Horse that DID NOT HAVE 4 % or more Nearco in their linebreeding ....
Rugbyman .... your call ... tough to toss out of top 4 here ...imo ... just throwing out what I see ...
So far my Plays ...if rain come this may change a bit ?
$2 Ex 6 / all = $12
$1 Tri 6 / 1,3,4,7 / all = $20
$0.10 Super 6 / all / all / all = $12
These are interesting correlations. We need a bigger sample size but something to watch. Thanks.
Punter ... agree bro .... GL on the race !!