It's Arlington Million time again and to me that always brings back memories of John Henry. For those who don't remember, he was a rags to riches story that really captured the hearts of racing fans. A former claimer who rose to the pinnacle of the sport.
Okay enough reminiscing, lets look at this year's field.
1. Circus Couture
He was soundly beaten by Century Dream at Ascot in May. He's had three modest efforts since and would be a huge upset in here. I give him no chance!
2. Spring Quality
He just keeps running dynamite races. Robert Bruce was life and death to get by him in the Fort Marcy and then he comes back to win the Manhattan from the far outside post. This is one fine racehorse. He's drawn inside at the mile and a quarter, figures to get a nice stalking trip, and he always runs. What's not to like? He has to be on your tickets!
3. Almanaar
He was a bang up second in the Fort Lauderdale in January, then won the Gulfstream Turf Handicap in February. He had a nice tune-up in a Belmont allowance in June that he also won and now he goes for the big prize. He's been working like a machine and it looks like all systems are go. Like the horse to his inside, he always shows up. He is my pick to win!
4. Divisidero
Tough campaigner who finished behind Almanaar in those two races down in Florida earlier this year, but he's had a nice Spring and he's not out of this. It's been a long time since he's won back to back and the Arlington Million might not be the best spot to try it. I'll pass.
5. Century Dream
Just missed in the Queen Anne at Ascot, then threw in a clunker in an allowance race a month later. If he runs back to the Queen Anne he fits in here for sure. He still has a lot of upside and I'll be using him in my combinations.
6. Catcho En Die
He won the Stars and Stripes at this track on the engine, but there won't be any soft leads in this one. I think he'll be compromised by the pace and all the stalkers inside of him figure to get better trips. I'll pass.
7. Twenty Four Seven
He's a nice allowance horse but there are some killers in here and I can't see him making much of an impact.
8. Money Multiplier
He won the Monmouth for the second year in a row and then just missed in the United Nations. He has to avoid a wide trip in here and it won't be easy, but he 's another who always puts in his run. He failed as the favorite in his last and has finished behind Spring Quality and Oscar Performance before. I'm going to pass.
9. Deauville
He seems a cut below the usual European monsters that show up here and Century Dream did beat him soundly at Ascot. I'm always wary of these European horses in their first race stateside, but I'll only use him underneath in exotics.
10. Robert Bruce
He split a couple of decisions with Spring Quality, winning the Fort Marcy and losing the Manhattan. Since Spring Quality gets the best of the draw in here, I'll be going with him in my bets in lieu of Robert Bruce.
11. Oscar Performance
He will probably be hard used early from here and may even sprint out for the lead. That is by no means an easy assignment. He figures to be heavily backed at the windows and I am unwilling to take a short price from this post position. He has my favorite jockey and I can't argue with those who like him, but I'm going to pass.
This certainly looks like a competitive edition of the Million. You can make a strong case for half the field, but I'm going with Almanaar. I'll use him in combinations with Spring Quality, Century Dream, and Deauville.
Good luck to all who are playing!
Very hard for me not to root for Oscar Performance, really like Spring Quality & Money Multiplier, but will have to watch a few races of the others. Always enjoy Arlington's big day.
Insane race! This race is completely out of my pay grade! I took a few minutes to look at past winners and it only solidified my reasons for sticking with dirt races. Out of the 11 contenders for today, 9 of them have the correct configurations to be considered advantaged for the win. Serious stamina inheritance (as usual) wins at this distance on turf. A case could definitely be made for 8 of them, possibly 9.
The highest and best stamina numbers out of those 9 belong to Robert Bruce and Deauville. (But the other 6 aren't too far behind).
There is only one in the race that looks to be completely backwards - Twenty Four Seven and one that looks like he is disadvantaged for a win but still okay for a board hit - Money Multiplier.
The rest look sensational with their numbers so it is way too hard to judge. If I had to say which breeding was the absolute best for this race out of the 11, both top and bottom, I would say it was Deauville. But not by nearly enough against the other 8. Here's his numbers:
Chefs: DP = 5-2-21-12-0 (40) DI = 0.78 CD = 0.00
Mares: 3-8-3-13-7 Speed = 11 Stamina = 20 Index = 0.57 Triads = 14-24-23
But Robert Bruce isn't too far behind:
Chefs: DP = 1-4-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.42
Mares: 2-8-1-10-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.52 Triads = 11-19-18
And Century Dream looks killer as well:
Chefs: DP = 2-3-22-1-0 (28) DI = 1.33 CD = 0.21
Mares: 4-6-2-9-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.59 Triads = 12-17-19
And Almanaar has crazy Chef stamina:
Chefs: DP = 2-0-6-1-1 (10) DI = 1.00 CD = 0.10
Mares: 10-3-3-6-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-12-17
Even the 30-1 Circus Couture is packing insane numbers:
Chefs: DP = 1-3-11-1-0 (16) DI = 1.46 CD = 0.25
Mares: 2-8-3-10-7 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.56 Triads = 13-21-20
I wouldn't touch this race with a 10ft pole!
Haha Lisa, it is very tough, its a shut your eyes and point handicap. Took Punter's like of him & looked at Almaanar, plus Joel riding & now your numbers on him. So leaning that way & still like Spring Quality. Then there's Oscar! What to do?
Betting on Athena for The Beverly D. So many Camelots today!
What was I thinking? Shoulda known to bet Chad period.
Spring Quality is scratched, not that that matters as Chad doesn't train him. Going with Almanaar & Money Multiplier. :) now I hope Oscar or Deauville wins.
Watch Robert Bruce win! Only betting Almanaar, Arlington is brutal.
Of course, what the hell was I thinking??
Hope Oscar is okay.
Well, I dodged a bullet!!!! I put together a superfecta and I almost convinced myself to place it but then I chickened out. After the race I was kicking myself for not placing that bet!!! But then after the DQ I was so thrilled that I didn't!!!!
I had Robert Bruce singled on top.
I had Almanaar, Century Dream and Deauville in the 2 and 3 and 4 spot.
And I added Oscar, Circus Couture and Catcho en Die to that 4th spot.
If I placed that bet I would have been pissed off all freakin week!!!!! YAY!!!!!!
I didn't win - but I didnt lose!!
Lisa you were more ambitious & right than me. I cussed a lot today. And the one race at Woodbine-the Duchess Stakes, where one of my sweethearts Win the War was running, who I would've bet on, I wasn't around to see. All you have to remember about Arlington is that it's Chad's world. Of course Robert Bruce won, it's Irad's birthday and Chad's millennium.
Had the exacta, but only because I added Robert Bruce when Spring Quality scratched. I was on the fence between Spring Quality and Robert Bruce, but opted for the inside post. I got lucky because Robert Bruce was tons the best. The dq cost me the tri and I didn't like Catcho en Die at all. That was a great get, Lisa. Thought Almanaar ran a great race but the winner was simply too good. I knew Oscar was in trouble when he didn't clear.
I threw in the 2 longshots at the bottom ONLY because of their numbers. Catcho and Circus had serious stamina numbers even though the PP's fell short. So many times for me I neglect a good set of numbers based on their past performances but now I am learning to at least spend to see their name at the bottom. Happily I did not place that bet. Here is Catcho's numbers: (all stamina)
Chefs: DP = 1-2-6-0-1 (10) DI = 1.50 CD = 0.20
Mares: 7-3-5-9-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.92 Triads = 15-17-19
Adding him to the bottom was pure luck and based solely on his numbers.
He did have the win over the track in the Stars and Stripes, but that was a wire job and I knew he wasn't getting the lead against these horses. The hardest thing in all of handicapping is coming up with the 4th place horse (unless you're betting pentafectas and trying to pick 5th). It can be a speed who tired, a complete plodder who passes all the tired horses, a stalker who fails to fire, none of the above, etc. It helps to be lucky!
I often throw in horses based on breeding even when their pp's are mediocre, especially if they are facing weaker. I still think current form is the best predictor of who will win. I also think workouts are important, not the raw times (I actually don't like unusually fast workouts unless it's a Baffert horse), but regularly spaced at five furlongs or more. More than anything else, I like the Million because it reminds me of John Henry. Don't know if you've ever followed him, but you should check out what happened when they finally got around to putting him on the grass.
Punter, I can't even get tri's, I agonize forever & am usually wrong so for now I stick to exactas. The best thing for me is to watch their races, although that can get time consuming. I've still so much to learn at this, when they talk about a track's bias its true. Still can't look at most horses and figure that they'd be better for this or that race. And John Henry was truly special, they don't come better than that. And he was NOT plain.
Had to rewatch John Henry's '84Arlington Million, his 81st start & if I heard correctly, with this race, the first horse to top 5 mil in earnings. Even if you didn't know that, it's a truly measured masterful run he & Chris put in.