3 Horses outside my numbers NOT TO WIN ... does it matter ??? Maybe ???
Vino Rosso ...there has never been a horse who won Belmont with Dosage between 3.54 and 4.00 .... Vino Rosso Dosage 3.57 ... probably can overlook , but noted .... also .... no past Belmont Winner with DI between 3.16 to 3.53 had Dosage Points lower than 20 ... Vino Rosso has 16 Dosage Points ...
Your thoughts on Vino Rosso from above ?
Gronkowski ... No Belmont Winner from 1970 to present has won with exact Dosage of 3.00 ...with Dosage Points lower than 16 .... Gronkowki has 10 Dosage Points ....
Thoughts ?
Seahenge ... No Belmont Winner from 1970 to present has won with exact Dosage of 3.00 with a CD above 1.00 .... Seahenge has a CD of 1.06 ...
adding
Only 1 Horse since 1970 has won the Belmont with an Exact Dosage of 3.00 and a Brilliant Number of below 6 ... that's the first number in the dosage points ... example ... 4-10-11-1-0 (26) ... look at the 4 .... that's it ...
This year we have a bunch of horses with the 3.00 Exact Dosage .... a couple of those are Under the 6 Number in the Dosage Points ...
Blended Citizen .... 5-7-12-0-0 (24)
Gronkowski .......... 3-2-5-0-0 (10)
Justify ..................... 5-6-8-1-0 (20) .... WOW !!!!
Tenfold ................... 5-8-13-0-0 (26)
Noble Indy ............. 4-5-9-0-0 (18)
Now I have to work on place horses ....lol
Appreciate feedback if you get time ?
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I think that to an extent it matters. I think using "exact" chef dosage numbers in evaluation is very tricky because the mares numbers are not being accounted for. With the addition of the "Reines-de-Course" numbers the colt can be looked at from both angles in his chart. I like to view them in categories and have found that the most advantaged runners to win the Belmont stakes range between 2.10 and 3.00. Breeding is still evolving since 1970 as well, and colts are being geared more to speed than to stamina which is making their chefs index rise as well. This is not to say that I think using a colt over 3.00 in the top slot is ever a good idea but American Pharoah is one that burned me bad. And finally, when reading these numbers, I am a firm believer in looking at the entire set and not just one or two aspects. In the case of Secretariat, his chefs numbers were:
DP = 20-14-7-9-0 (50) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.90.
That 3.00 index is held by thousands and thousands of colts and the CD is fairly normal as well. The profile itself and the points total is magnificent but it is also not extremely rare to see. (But I will say, if that profile were running today, there would be no question at all as to who to single!) But what really makes Secretariat stand out with the Belmont stakes with