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May 24, 2018

2018 Kentucky Derby - Contender Analysis

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Listed in order of highest inherited chef speed all the way down to highest inherited chef stamina. Mares are taken into account separately for each.

3.10+ Speed Guys

9.00 Snapper Sinclair DP = 10-6-4-0-0 (20) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.30 Mare Profile = 7-7-2-7-4 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.35 Triads = 16-16-13 Everything inherited from both his Chefs and his Mares is backwards. Notice how the Chefs Profile begins at 10 in his brilliant (4-6f) and then drops to a 6 in Intermediate (7-9f) and continues to plummet to a 4 in Classic (10-12F) distance. The Mare triads also slide backwards. That is really the epitome of a horse who has no chance at 10f, but has a serious chance as being one of those speedster guys who affects the outcome. Not even with an added advantage on a sloppy track does this inheritance make the grade in the Derby.

9.00 PROMISES FULFILLED DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.10 Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16 With the group he is surrounded with in this field, his inheritance falls a bit short for this distance. It’s actually not that terrible - his mares are at least lopsided to stamina even though not so overloaded. But his chef’s profile dips too far down between the Intermediate slots and the Classic slots. And the dip with the 11 in the triads is yet another pitfall. He would be relying 100% on his mares to give him the 10f. A tall order for even a lower chef indexed horse. It is simply a case of too many negatives dotted throughout both profiles. He will however get a huge boost up in ranks on a sloppy surface but I wouldn’t boost too high, maybe just enough to see his gate number at the very bottom of your super ticket.

5.00 AUDIBLE DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mare Profile = 7-7-8-8-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 22-23-19 This guy has a lot of pros and he has a couple of cons. He is loaded in speed with a magnificent set of mare’s numbers. Even though he is loaded in his triads, they do still lean left towards speed though. That is just one concern. There is the Into Mischief thing as well, but I do believe that the 19 in that last slot of his triads will keep him carrying that speed well into the stretch. Then it is left to fate. On a clean surface, this guy actually might need to be used across the board in a super. He is definitely lopsided to speed from all angles, and although the high triads across the board stand alone in this group, there is that possibility of the speed getting the best of him. It is that last 20 or so lengths that may just grab him in the end. By all accounts he should be in that mix quite comfortably, it’s a toss-up on whether he has that little bit of stamina left in reserve to prevail for the win. On a sloppy track the worry should subside about those last 20 lengths. He’s got it with no problem on that surface.Since the very beginning of the preps, Audible's numbers have far surpassed any who have come and gone. His numbers are still far and above all others for the Kentucky Derby.

4.14 FIRENZE FIRE DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18 The numbers are good but not spectacular for the Derby. This guy may have a bit of backing there for a small board hit because he is better equipped at the distance than those 2 speedsters at the top of this list. Realistically, the Mare’s profile actually gives him more stamina, but it gives him less speed. This is the type of profile that sneaks itself into the bottom of a super time and time again, especially on a sloppy track too. He received enough speed from the chefs to compete and his triads do step up as they move along the spectrum but his inconsistency overshadows his 4.14 index and he has way too many high powered speed guys in this category that have the undeniable stamina for the 10f more definitively. Unfortunately, his numbers are not enough.

3.67 STRIKE POWER DP = 10-7-10-1-0 (28) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.93 Mare Profile = 7-6-3-4-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.21 Triads = 16-13-13 If his triads were reversed he would have had a shot. Best at 9f. Not here.

3.57 VINO ROSSO DP = 5-4-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = 0.88 Mare Profile = 5-3-2-9-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.56 Triads = 10-14-19 A fantastic profile addition to this speed group. Unlike Strike Power above him here, Vino secured a boatload of stamina for the 10f race. His low mare index of .56 nicely counteracts that 3.57 index. Another guy with a gorgeous set-up that MUST have speed ahead of him on the field to compete. His mare triads demand it. There are now 3 colts (Vino, Good Magic, Magnum Moon) with the right amount of speed to compete down the stretch and more than enough inherited stamina to carry that speed as far as they need to go. There is one other (Audible) who has more speed inheritance than the three of them, with gorgeous triads but a slight question on the final lengths of the stretch. The top contenders that are unquestionable with the 10f and who are packing more inherited speed are all referenced right there. As far as configurations for the 10f, Vino has one of the best, now it is a matter of comparing past performances and displayed speed. There may be a couple who may have the upper-hand there at the same optimum distance. Past performances need to be consulted for him and the 2 below him on this list. They are all three very closely knitted together, just as inherited speed and displayed speed is closely knitted together.

3.40 GOOD MAGIC DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 Mare Profile = 4-7-2-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-19-20 This guy still has a huge advantage with his inheritance at 10f. The chefs are spot on, the mare triads give him the distance. No chance of leaving this guy off that super ticket. His best comes further than what he has ridden to date, including his Bluegrass win. His speed inheritance is a bit lacking against a few others who also have what it takes to go the distance. So, pitted against them, head to head, inherited speed matters a great deal in this Derby. Also, breakdown of the speed on the lead would enhance Good Magic’s true inheritance and bolster his advantage. Surface conditions should be spot on either way.

3.27 MAGNUM MOON DP = 8-9-15-0-0 (32) DI = 3.27 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 5-4-3-7-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.61 Triads = 12-14-19 Compares heavily to everything said about Good Magic at this distance. These two have almost everything exactly where it needs to be inheritance-wise for 10f with a field of 20. But Magnum has one extra added bonus (especially on a sloppy surface), a ton of chefs load his profile from 4f to 12f. This guy is one of the most talented on the field and depending on post-position draw, will be well deserving of his lower M/L odds. His inheritance for the standards that the Kentucky Derby requires is right here. Speed inheritance from the Chefs is terrific but just like Good Magic a bit low from his mares. The high 32 points gives him an even greater advantage of scoring on a sloppy Track. Rain or Shine, excellent.

EXACT 3.00 GUYS:

3.00 FLAMEAWAY DP = 8-1-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 9-4-3-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.93 Triads = 16-13-18 The only thing that gives me pause with this guy is that Chefs 5 Digit Profile. He inherited more sprinters blood than he did in the Classic Distance. The 8 in that first slot (Brilliant) is higher than that 6 in the Classic slot. And the 1 in his Intermediate slot keeps that fairly pure. He is actually deceivingly much speedier than that 3.00 index is depicting. His chefs gave him much more additional speed than all of the 3.00 guys under him. For the Derby this is important. Speed dictates, but it needs to be counteracted with enough stamina from the mares to balance it. The 13 in the triads is heartbreaking and could possibly water down that 18 in the longer distance slot. Flameaway is one of two guys in this stacked 3.00 category that truly can go either way with regards to a board hit. He has a few things here that are truly negatives with his breeding for the 10f, especially for a win. He has a few positives though for a board hit and that lies directly with the extra shot of speed from his chefs. Sometimes, when looking at the inheritance a colt has for this particular race, things jump out so easily where you can circle and highlight and put stars all around them or you can easily cross off some without a second thought. Then there are the guys who get 2 question marks next to their names. On the surface, with these numbers, the 10f distance looks to be a challenge here, but under all the right circumstances, a board hit is not out of his pay grade. What stands out to me the most with Flameaway is that the prospect of a serious chance in the Preakness with this dosage set-up, at this moment, is glaringly real. And if he performs to a level that allows him to be a player on the bottom of that super, it may actually hinder his thunder for the Preakness. I truly do not know which way that 13 in the middle of his triads will take him. Does it steal from the speed side or does it steal from the stamina side? It will definitely steal from one of them. If it steals from the 16 in his speed slot, he definitely has a shot at the board in Kentucky. He actually gained enough speed from his chefs and too much more will be detrimental for the distance and it will add more to his stamina side. If it steals from the 18 in his stamina slot, he would have it all for the Preakness. I apologize for writing a lot about this guy because there is truly something here and I know my friends here at this site have a real liking for this guy but I do not see how his numbers could give him a win at this distance up against a few of the players in the upper echelon Speed group. But he is much better equipped than most underneath on this list and he is a great prospect for the Preakness. It could go either way in Kentucky on a clean track. If it is sloppy Derby day, his additional sprinters speed from his chefs will give him much more advantage than 80% of the guys in this category.

3.00 NOBLE INDY DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 10-4-3-4-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.42 Triads = 17-11-13 Since I wrote a ton about Flameaway, I won’t even waste the space. This little guy will be looking at the back of a pack of horses way passed the finish line. He is completely lopsided and backwards for the 10f in the Derby. Triads descend which is opposite of what wins this particular race.

3.00 JUSTIFY DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Mares: DP = 9-4-4-7-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-15-19 Disregarding the hype and looking only at the numbers, his speed inheritance from the chefs matches 8 others on this field. Looking for something, basically anything that is an obvious separation from the couple of standouts in this group just keeps ending in a tie. His triads are not the best of this category but they are certainly better than a few of them. There is nothing that I can find in these numbers that would “justify” the performances to date, nor that would justify the hype either. He is apparently a very talented and special horse in the eyes of his connections and many fans. (Funny how this type of over-hyped "extra special" horse seems to always come from the same barn.) Yes, his numbers set-up is very good but it is not magnificent nor is it “standing out among this crowd.” But there is one thing here that does stand out - the likely strategy of his trainer. If this horse, untested at 2 with just a few races under his belt, is sent out from the gate in Bodemiester fashion to try to wire the field in the Kentucky Derby, there are at least 4 other guys whose advantage will skyrocket in that situation. If kept to stalk and move at the proper time, he runs with the best of them. Hype does not win the Derby. Stellar past performances coupled with what is running in his veins to get him the 10f quickest, and sheer determination wins the Derby. This guy needs to be looked at objectively and without the noise. Realistically, his performances are on point with his inheritance so far. They are good, no question, so too was the performance of Mendelssohn in the UAE Derby or even Magnum Moon in the Rebel and on and on. He did not inherit the highest amount of speed in this category and he certainly did not inherit the highest amount of stamina either. Yes, his numbers give him a shot, but there are better numbers around him. If he tries to wire the field against a few of these guys, his numbers and inheritance won’t get him there. He would have to do that all on his own. The point being is that fireworks on the track is one thing, fireworks in the press or in interviews is another. This is the Kentucky Derby and all that matters is if the horse can get a clean trip going 10f the fastest. Justify is definitely a player but he is certainly not the only player. And as far as the configurations of his speed/stamina balance, his is not the best here. Handicap this horse evenly with all the others. As with every 3.00 entry here, past performances, speed and the ability to run 10f is important. Talk is not. Justify looks as though his numbers will carry him 10f, but there are a few others here who can do that as well. Regardless of all of that, he must be used pretty much across the board because the Baffert “potion” always takes precedence in more ways than one. The numbers are good, but they are certainly not “single on top” worthy in the Kentucky Derby.

3.00 BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16 I have struggled the entire season with this guy’s numbers vs his performances. I have dissected them, twisted them, searched and researched over and over. The combination of the mares and the chefs early brilliant numbers depict an enormous amount of sprinters speed. The mares offer basically nothing in the 7f to 13f range but the chefs offer a ton. As of the writing of this, between all of the 3.00 index and over colts, all the way up to the highest index, only Magnum Moon rivals Bolt with the high amount of Chefs Classic blood. But there is no comparison between the mares. Magnum surpasses him in that regard. This one factor may mean the difference between winning the roses and being content with an honorable mention. With the high amount of points that Bolt received, his horrible triads may not come into play, however, they may in fact actually show up at that top of the stretch in a big way. This keeps Bolt as one of those 3.00 guys with a question mark, like Flameaway. The Chefs numbers across the board are fantastic for the Derby. The mare’s numbers are terrible for the Derby. This is one guy that I will step to the side on as far as a definitive answer on a clear fast track and leave that up to his past performances. The way this colts numbers shake out, it’s a damned if you do and damned if you don’t situation. He is possibly holding the best set of Chefs numbers on the field but his mares numbers are the bottom of the heap. Really bad. As far as a sloppy track, Bolt and Magnum Moon look to be perfect speedy rivals as the high amount of Chefs points (32 each) they both are packing combined with the speed they both have are a very favorable and advantaged tool. On a clear track, there has to be some hesitation because of those triads as far as a win and quite possibly a board hit with this group.

3.00 ENTICED DP = 7-8-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 13-2-3-3-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.19 Triads = 18-8-16 With a 3.00 index smack dab in a field with 8 other peers, sometimes you have to take a stand with the numbers. These numbers fall very short when pitted against his peers. It’s not only that the triads fall short in the classic distance, but they also lean to the speed side as well and this will have an effect on how far he can actually sustain that speed. The 10f distance seems terribly hard here even though he has shown some good grit to get here. Talented horse but the 10f is really pushing it.

3.00 Solomini DP = 6-5-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 4-6-2-6-11 Speed = 10 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.53 Triads = 12-14-19 Serious amount of stamina gained in those triads. Here is where those crazy high numbers from the speedsters up above come into play. Solomini is not packing the type of speed needed to win at 10f against the likes of a few of the guys on this field. It takes speed to make it to the wire first. But if those couple of speedsters run the way they were bred to run, Solomini will have a serious advantage because of the stamina dominance in those triads. If the speed is knocked up a notch or two, Solomini will capitalize easily. If one of the speedsters decide to try to pull a Bodemiester move and take it wire to wire at 10f, Solomini will capitalize easily. He needs to be in a nice stalking position because this horse absolutely can go this distance. In this category, he is the Irish War Cry from last year. His 3.00 index is deceiving, just like IWC. Neither were equipped with a ton of inherited speed and they both undoubtedly gained the needed distance. Match that Mares index up against all in this 3.00 slot and none come close. He is holding SERIOUS stamina. The only way he will be able to prevail easily here is if the speed from the sprinters up there on top of the list goes berserk or if a wise guy tries to wire. He also has Belmont numbers to the hilt (just like Irish War Cry did). On a clear track, he will have an advantage with a 20 horse field and an outside post position will not affect the distance capability he is holding. An outside post would be a blessing for a horse bred like this, out of traffic, able to position himself wherever he needs to be, coupled with the needed stamina to run a few wide if need be for quite awhile. On a sloppy track, the stamina dominance in his numbers will affect him a great deal. Speed is the main ingredient for that and unfortunately there are too many contenders much more equipped in that regard. But on a clean track, this guy has the capability to pull an Animal Kingdom move because of those mare’s numbers. His fame and fortune relies heavily on those speed guys. This guy should not be overlooked at this distance on a clean track.

*Addition after Arkansas Derby* - This performance puts a stamp on how this type of configuration can trick one into thinking that a horse who could not win at 1 1/8 and pass the speed at 1 1 /8 would not be able to go the distance of 1 1/4. They view it as being "obviously distance-challenged." This horse has an optimum distance passed 10f. His lack of inherited speed at the Arkansas distance (and under that distance as well ) would cause him to struggle against the speed under his optimum. It is not the issue of not being able to compete at longer distances, it is the issue of not having the speed to compete at that distance. Notice how lopsided to stamina his triads are and how dominant that 11 is in his Chefs classic spot. The Arkansas was slow, and it underscores the importance of many entries here who need a fast pace and speed ahead of them to be any sort of contender in the Derby. Solomini is far from distance challenged, he is unfortunately not equipped with the inherited speed to compete at shorter distances against those who are and his pedigree demands a fast pace. At 10f, he will still be running comfortably, but this is where the importance of understanding the speed capabilities of those around him and its affect on a horse that can go the distance but slower than many. This will work in his favor in the Belmont.

3.00 GRONKOWSKI DP = 3-2-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 7-3-1-4-15 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.51 Triads = 11-8-20 The mares stamina is so over the top that this guy’s apparent speedy 3.00 index is knocked on its side. Going head to head in this overloaded 3.00 category against the same on our home turf is too much to even consider.

THE AVERAGE 2.00 GUYS:

2.78 Hofburg DP = 6-11-16-1-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65 12-4-0-5-11 Speed = 16 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-9-16 On a sloppy track this guy would need to be looked at as a possible on the super due to his gorgeous Chef’s profile and higher total points. On a clear track a bit more scrutiny might be in order. Since his mares profile does separate in two, he would be relying completely on his chefs to get him the 10f distance. The chefs high 11 in the Intermediate category and the 16 in his Classic spot might separate into two as well and leave this guy with an optimum distance that is just shy of the 10f. It is that tight. A favorable position, a clean trip, a great jockey and an out of control lead horse will help. No need to cross him out just yet. It is this type of configuration that can sneak in and grab a piece of the bottom.

2.75 BRAVAZO - DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-3-3-8-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 15-14-16 The index and the triads configuration says it all. Not much of a chance in this race.

2.71 Lone Sailor DP = 5-7-14-0-0 (26) DI = 2.71 CD = 0.65 Mare Profile = 10-2-4-3-11 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 16-9-18 Same as Bravazo.

2.60 Combatant DP = 6-3-8-1-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 11-4-2-6-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-12-15 Same as Lone Sailor and Bravazo.

2.50 RERIDE – 2.50 DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 5-4-4-7-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-15-19 This Candy Ride boy has really received a nice set of numbers in spite of that 2.50 index. Everything that I wrote about Solomini up top pertains to this guy as well. Exactly the same. The only difference and factor that needs to be considered between the two of them is the fact that Solomini did not take a long trip across the world. That could have a negative impact on an otherwise potential superstar. Just like Solomini, he did not inherit much speed, (especially from his chefs) and the high amount of stamina gained from both the top and bottom of his chart is outstanding for the Belmont Stakes. If this guy grabs a gate in the Derby by a defection here or there, his numbers pose a serious threat if the speedsters show off in the first 8f of the race, but the Dubai factor would need to be carefully considered if he does. But no need to think too hard about it this early, he does not have his spot yet. Could be a blessing in disguise though. It will give him the needed rest against a couple of others who will be running their hearts out in the Derby. Therein lies the disadvantage for Solomini in the Belmont if Reride shows up there instead. If he does show up in the Derby and it rains, the stamina will hinder him a great deal and possibly deal a blow to an effort in the Belmont.

UNDER 2.00 STAMINA GUYS:

1.80 Mendelssohn - DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64 Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17 First the pros… With regard to the chef’s profile, Mendelssohn has the most impressive chef profile set up in this stamina category. His triad inheritance is magnificent. He runs close to or on the lead. He has conquered all 3 surfaces with total dominance. He has traveled country to country and won them all. He is a stamina horse and he broke a track speed record. His best winning performance to date was on the dirt. He posted the highest Beyer (until Justify's 107 at Santa Anita) out of all of the Derby preps out of this entire field at 106. He has Aiden O’Brien and Ryan Moore. With all of these points, Mendelssohn could easily be considered the only one on this field that you could confidently single on top. Outstanding in every measure.Unfortunately, there are a couple of cons here that overshadow an easy single on top. Now the cons… The Kentucky Derby is not the Breeders Cup. Overseas guys on turf in our neck of the woods always have the upper hand. Not the case with the Kentucky Derby. He is still a foreigner and he may exhibit a bit of a setback due to the extra flying and circumstances that surround even the most gifted invader. He has shown a possible enjoyment for flying a couple of times already but unlike other gifted colts going into the gates for this race, he still remains the only one who will have to endure it. Secondly, the performance in the UAE Derby may have been so spectacular that the possibility of leaving the best he had is still back in Dubai. Arguably the best performance from all the Derby preps in years, there must be concern that it may be close to impossible to duplicate that extraordinary effort back to back. In my humble opinion, Mendelssohn is in a league and class all his own with this given field. His dosage configurations and pedigree is severely top notch. I believe he is the most talented and gifted of the bunch. But there is no chance of a confident single with this guy. On a clean track, he must be spread across in every spot due to his magnificent over the top Dubai performance. Just the slightest chance that it took a bit out of him is a chance personally I will not take. The absolute majesty of many of these overseas invaders have burned me on more than one occasion in the past and caution is now a virtue. On a sloppy track, even though stamina horses do not have much success at all, Mendelssohn must still be considered a threat due to his freakish ability to conquer all surfaces. With safety and precaution…completely across the board with him.

1.77 My Boy Jack - DP = 3-2-13-0-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.44 Mare Profile = 13-3-3-4-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.52 Triads = 19-10-14 Not only is this guy’s set-up extremely peculiar, his list of past performances are just as odd.

He inherited barely any speed from his chefs, dominant in the classic distance. His inheritance from the mares is completely opposite which makes everything combine in half. His mares were overtly dominate in short early speed. Everything between his mares and his sires combines together (harmoniously) as if from one profile set, not two. I can’t tell if this is really nice or completely chaotic. It’s split in half and then combined… Moving on with the oddness, half of his time spent at the track has been on turf, so half of his races are a toss. In the one race on dirt that he actually won and posted a high beyer figure, 98, he closed from the back of the pack on a sloppy track. “Stamina” horses coming from the back of the pack and closing on a sloppy track is completely odd and very peculiar. His triad numbers are configured just about as odd as you can get. Everything just seems backwards and upside down. I would not say that this guy has any type of advantage against some of those speed guys up there, but something about the oddness of this guy’s set-up against everything else on this field leads me to believe he should be held onto for now. A case could be made that he favors his mares dominate speed at exactly the place where his chefs are dominate – at the classic distance. The huge amount of mare speed could have been the force behind that sloppy victory with such a high beyer. His configurations mimic those guys up top with the high chef speed and the crazy high mare stamina – it’s just in complete reverse. This set-up is very drastic in its configuration and it is this type of colt that is so different from everything else on the field that you just can’t overlook it. There is something here for a shot at the board at the very least. Potential is the best word.

1.74 FREE DROP BILLY DP = 4-4-17-1-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 9-5-2-10-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-17-17 On the surface, his numbers are nicely balanced. The 17 in the Classic distance basically guarantees the distance of 10f and the 9 in the mare’s brilliant category gives him good speed to compete. In his past performances he seems to be favoring those mares up front and early in races and then winding it down in favor of his chefs. In only one race out of his 7, The Holy Bull, did he show off that mare speed and reserve it until late in the race. He would need to do that to be any kind of a player in the Kentucky Derby. With so many entries in this year’s Derby that do that every time on their own, the roll of the dice on Free Drop going against his grain is way too big of a gamble.

1.59 INSTILLED REGARD DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32 Mare Profile = 6-4-7-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.79 Triads = 17-17-21 This guy has received the highest amount of inbred stamina on the field. His mare set up both in the profile and the triads is actually the best configurations of this stamina group. After his win in the Lecomte, he appeared to be in a well suited position to capitalize on his ability and potential to outrun the speed he was entered against. He appeared to be outrunning his numbers, which by all accounts, top and bottom, is overloaded in stamina. The numbers, top and bottom are actually gorgeous. What he lacks in inherited speed from his chefs is nicely offset by that 17 in the first slot of the triads. Both profiles are beautifully arranged and he always had the potential to be a champion from these set-ups. They combine perfectly for the Derby. When looking at it objectively and on the scale of these 20 guys, the list begins with the colt who has the highest amount of chef inbred speed and it descends all the way down to the horse who has the highest amount of chef inbred stamina. Right now, that list starts with Promises Fulfilled (if Snapper doesn't somehow get in) and go all the way down to this guy. The two extremes so to speak. A case could made that being on the highest plateau of the two ends is very favorable and generally in "normal" graded stakes races under 10f, these two areas would be considered highly advantaged. At 10f in the Kentucky Derby, these 2 extremes have serious disadvantages. It is easy to see why the high speed would be difficult for a guy bred like Promises Fulfilled at this distance. Of course, not enough stamina inheritance to compete at 10f. It is harder to distinguish just by the numbers if the highest inbred stamina horse has the speed to compete against those in the top category (the 3.10 and higher guys) who are also packing the right amount of stamina - FROM THEIR MARES - to go 10f. (Vino, Good Magic, Magnum Moon). It is a very tough position to be in for Instilled Regard because the Derby demands BOTH. The top and bottom of Instilled Regards numbers both lean to stamina. The .32 CD from the Chefs allows Instilled to run as far as he wants, especially at a slow pace for a good portion of the race. He reserves his speed til the end. It will be there down along the backstretch, but when it does surface, he most likely will not have the position to use it properly, whereas the speed guys (who are equipped with the stamina to continue) will be too much to overcome. This guy has one of the better configurations on the list. And if pushed to show his speed in the first 2 calls like he did in the Lecomte, he could very well be a player in this particular race. He has the stamina to keep going and he has one of the best Triad configurations on the field. His disadvantage comes with his early numbers which affect the first call. He must overcome that first against this field because he does have the late numbers to compete here.

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  • First Published 2/22/2015 A great man once tried to teach me about race horses. I was no more than nine at the time. I vaguely remember the lessons and unfortunately I can only recall bits and pieces. I can see him at that kitchen table in South Philly and I can still hear his voice reminiscing over names like Graustark, Man o War, Ribot, Stage Door Johnny and War Admiral. I wish I could remember all of it. But one thing I do remember very well, his insistence that the greatest possibility for any given horse to have a lasting and successful career is the one who carries with him the stamina of the great runners of the past. He said that Stamina was the main ingredient, not speed. He said that the speed with which all horses naturally carry cannot ever be sacrificed. The horse who possesses true stamina from his ancestors of the past and who does not let it affect his speed is destined to be “one of the great ones.” I recall him then smiling and saying, “Just like Jackie Gleason, one of the great ones!” At the time, I didn’t know what he was actually talking about, but after my Grandfather passed away in 1989, I became more and more infatuated with the sport. I made it my business to unlock some of the things he tried to teach me. Pedigree is a difficult beast to unravel. There are too many names, too many different styles within a chart, too many generations and way too many characters who can potentially influence a runner. A daunting task to say the least. As a matter of fact, within just the first five generations of a chart, there are 62 contributors, both male and female, to one single horse. Impossible to differentiate how any of the sires or mares can influence, not influence, add to or take away from. The research initiated by Lt. Col. J.J. Vuillier in France many years ago and continued by Dr. Franco Varola in the 60’s, leads us to the dedication of Steven Roman, who wrapped it all up into one complete package, Dosage. “Dosage characterizes pedigrees solely through the evaluation and the cataloging of explicit qualities of prepotent or predictable speed and stamina inherited from selected key ancestors.” (Steven A. Roman) “For any individual horse, speed and stamina are inversely related; one is always sacrificed in favor of the other. Whether cheap or high-class, all horses are limited in type by their inherited speed/stamina balance.” (Steven A. Roman) That is, Mr. Roman, only if the horse is not destined to be one of “The Great Ones.” After many years of studying historical dosage, I disagree with Mr. Roman on his point that ALL horses are limited by the speed/stamina balance and I have come to the conclusion that Little Gramps was right all along. The Great Ones sacrifice nothing. That it begins with Stamina and that their natural speed is not compromised. What if there is no speed inheritance to balance? How do some horses who are overly dominant in inherited stamina win over those who are overly dominated in speed? Why can't speed demons balance their endurance while stamina horses can still compete and win at short distances? I see no limitation with regard to Stamina horses over Speed horses. Speed horses are limited, stamina horses are not. In the past, the Great Ones were easily defined by their inherited stamina. No proof is needed there. Champions like Ribot, Man o War, Graustark etc, all equipped with inherited European stamina and all showing evidence of contributing that stamina throughout their progeny. Fast forward to present day. Here are just a few of our contemporary champions that I have found who mimic the numbers of the greatest runners through the century. They all process dominant stamina just like their ancestors and did not compromise any of their natural and inherited speed. They are a rare breed but definitely all considered “The Great Ones”. FRANKEL 14 Starts – 14 Wins. Nine consecutive Group One Wins. Chefs Dosage Profile = 5-2-15-7-1 (30) Index = .94 CD = .10 Chefs dominance shows complete inherited stamina. Reines Profile = 2-8-3-13-7 (33) Index = .53 CD = Negative .60 Reines dominance shows complete inherited stamina. ANIMAL KINGDOM 2011 Eclipse Award for 3 year olds Winner Kentucky Derby and Preakness Multiple Graded Stakes Winner Chefs Dosage Profile = 2-0-6-0-0 (8) Index = 1.67 CD = .50 Inherited 3 times more stamina than speed to his optimum classic distance from the chefs. Reines Profile = 3-4-5-11-6 (29) Index = .48 CD = Negative .68 Reines dominance shows complete inherited stamina. WISE DAN 2013 Horse of the Year, Grass Horse, Older Horse 2012 Horse of the Year, Grass Horse, Older Horse Chefs Dosage Profile = 1-3-4-2-0 (10) Index = 1.50 CD = .30 The CD favors stamina and lacks in inherited sprinting influence Reines Profile = 6-5-5-5-7 (28) Index = .93 CD = Negative .07 Reines complete dominance in endurance and stamina. SHARED BELIEF 2013 Eclipse Award 2 year Old 10 Starts – 9 Wins Chefs Dosage Profile = 2-2-6-2-0 (12) Index = 1.40 CD = .33 Similar to Wise Dan, CD favors stamina and lacks in inherited sprinting influence. Reines Profile = 0-3-6-8-8 (25) Index = .31 CD = Negative 1.04 Zero sprinting influence coupled with severe stamina inheritance.
  • (Just moving this over from HRF site to have here) 9/16/2017 IROQUOIS STAKES - 1 1/16 - CHURCHILL DOWNS BEYER: 76 THE TABULATOR DP = 6-3-15-0-0 (24) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.63 Mare Profile = 11-5-4-8-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.29 Triads = 20-17-18 What stands out oddly here is that the mare profile and index are heavy on speed inheritance but the beyer number from this race is not jiving with it. He is one of the "average guys" from his chefs but his mares numbers give him that spectacular balance and beautiful set of Triads. As with most average indexed colts, the past performances will have to highly outweigh that 2.20 index in order to compete in the Derby. So far, a win on the Derby Trail helps that cause but the low beyer keeps him kinda on the sidelines. Must watch future performances to see if he can capitalize on that speed inheritance from his mares. That is the key for this guy. 9/30/2017 FRONTRUNNER - 1 1/16 - SANTA ANITA BEYER: 100 BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16 He has posted one of the highest beyer performances to date. The 12 in the Classic slot from his chefs is the only thing giving him the distance he needed for that win. His mares numbers are split. His triads are nowhere near where they need to be for the Kentucky Derby. The high beyer number comes directly from the 7 in the brilliant chefs profile and from that huge 11 in the Mares profile. This guy appears to have a Breeders Cup Dirt Mile profile. 10/7/2017 CHAMPAGNE - 1 mi. - BELMONT Beyer: 90 FIRENZE FIRE DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18 He is only one of two contenders on the 2018 Road so far with a High Speed Profile. This is the type that excels in the Kentucky Derby. If the field shakes out with a low number of Speed colts this year, he might have to be looked at as having an advantage but his races so far are very inconsistent. I have a feeling that his mares profile is to blame 6-4-5-7-6 is completely spread and fairly close to being even across each distance. This means that he does not have a true "Optimum Distance" from those mares and his chefs profile looks as if it will be watered down. I am wary with his numbers for the Kentucky Derby, however, without a great deal of Speed horses yet, he must still be considered at this early stage. His triads look very well placed against the 4.14 index of his chefs. He needs to show consistency going forward. 10-7-2017 BREEDERS FUTURITY - 1 1/16 - KEENELAND Beyer: 79 FREE DROP BILLY DP = 4-4-17-1-0 (26) DI = 1.74 CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 9-5-2-10-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 1.14 Triads = 16-17-17 Billy has a very good balance between his mares and his chefs as far as distribution of his speed and his stamina. It is opposite in the norm, gaining his stamina from his chefs and his speed from his mares. The dominance of that 17 in his Classic slot in his chefs profile is absolute and definitely justifies that 79 beyer performance. The speedy lead horses pounded each other in that race and Billy's stamina gave him the win in that race. What he did receive though is a very nice high Mare index, which balances him very nicely. Just by this one performance it seems that Billy is gravitating to his chefs stamina as opposed to his mares speed. This is evident with that 79 beyer. He truly needs to find a way to utilize his mare inheritance. It is his only hope if he is to do anything at Churchill. His numbers are nice, but so far his performances aren't coinciding with them. He has the speed, it just needs to come out of him for that 10f race. At this point, I see much better stamina contenders. 11-4-2017 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE Beyer: 100 GOOD MAGIC DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.82 Mare Profile = 4-7-2-10-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.61 Triads = 13-19-20 Perfection in balanced numbers for the Kentucky Derby. Just like Lookin at Lee from last year, (although at a much higher level) this guy has the speed to compete with any of the big speed demons that will inevitably be above him and he has the perfect balance to conquer the 10 furlongs because of the triad configurations he inherited from his mares. At this point, there is only one above him as far as killer dosage profiles in the Speed category - Audible. Inevitably there will be more. But as of right now, mid February, he is one of the top contenders to win the Kentucky Derby based on his inheritance. Rain or Shine. The 3.40 index is a direct hit and the 13-19-20 triads give him the distance. Top notch Kentucky Derby numbers. 11-25-2017 KENTUCKY JOCKEY - 1 1/16 - DEL MAR Beyer: 81 ENTICED DP = 7-8-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 13-2-3-3-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.19 Triads = 18-8-16 Great numbers for the road to get there, but sad to report that these numbers fall very short for the 10f in Kentucky. The chefs numbers are fine, bottom end of the speed spectrum and extremely beautiful set up in that chefs Profile. But he would have to rely heavily on those chefs with only additional speed coming from the mares. The mare profile is split and weighs to the left (speed). Not much came his way in terms of the Classic distance from the mares. If he left that portion of his inheritance in the barn, he would be okay but unfortunately it does not work that way. He enters the gate with the whole shebang, and that means his distance will get watered down. He is still fully loaded enough though for the remainder of the trail. The fact that he excelled at Del Mar gives hope that he may have it in him to run past that mare inheritance, but that is a flip of the coin. 12-2-2017 REMSEN STAKES - 1 1/8 - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 91 CATHOLIC BOY DP = 6-2-11-1-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.65 Mare Profile = 7-5-5-5-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.80 Triads = 17-15-20 Under that 2.11 mark is great, coupled with those triads is really great. His performances to date would make him the number one candidate to be able to compete in the Kentucky Derby being in that "average" category with his dosage index. There is always a strong possibility that one of them will hit the board, and this early in the game, all fingers should point to him. His Triads are very well configured for his chefs index. His mare index is a bit on the low side in contrast to that .65 index. But he hits his triads correctly with the 17 in the first spot and then it continues to a 20 on the stamina side. He has a nice amount of Reines in his chart which is exactly what he needs. Is he packing too much stamina from both sides for the Derby? Well, at this point, since there is not a ton of speed colts in the running yet, he will be pitted against the other stamina guys. Where his numbers fall, gives him MORE speed inheritance than most of those other stamina guys. This is a very strong positive So far, he is on the right path to be a contender in the Derby. And a serious one at that. 12-9-2017 LOS ALAMITOS - 1 1/16 - LOS ALAMITOS Beyer: 91 MCKINZIE DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 8-5-1-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 14-14-16 This guy has alot of buzz and he is performing very well . He has been flawless in all his races (The Solomini DQ aside) - But I must be honest and say that these numbers are absolutely abysmal for the Kentucky Derby. His chefs Profile on its own is actually not that bad and those types of configurations usually stand on their own. His optimum from the Chefs is the Classic distance, it is there in black and white. His mares profile is basically evenly distributed with speed and stamina with nothing happening in the Classic distance. Unfortunately, more speed inheritance would help him for the Derby. As with Catholic Boy, there is always the possibility of one of these "average dosage" guys to hit it big in the Derby. But unlike Catholic Boy who has some numbers to back his pursuit up, McKinzie will have to rely on himself. Here is a great example of a horse who is outrunning his numbers and he will absolutely have to do that in the Derby. As usual with a 2.33 guy, past performances will mean EVERYTHING because his numbers are not there. 12-17-2017 THE SPRINGBOARD - 1 mi. - REMINGTON Beyer: 88 GREYVITOS DP = 7-5-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.79 Mare Profile = 6-6-5-6-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.85 Triads = 17-17-19 This guy will perform much better at the Derby distance than he will at the 7-8-9f distance.He is on the lower end of the speed spectrum. The distance will not be a problem at all. The index from the mares (.85) just seems... blah. That is the only way to put it. It gives him the distance he needs but something is lacking in these numbers. The only thing I can make out here is that his chefs profile is just fine. His mares profile is okay. His triads are nice. Every aspect is...nice. Not spectacular but nice. Does nice win the Derby? Not usually but also not out of the realm. He will get better as the distances get longer and this may be where we see the best of him. He also looks like a real contender for the Belmont which generally does not make him a contender for the Derby. Again, the Derby demands some sort of speed inheritance. He did get some from the chefs (7) and some from the mares (6), but its not enough to jump up and down about with that 3.00 index. It's nice. It's fine. It's balanced. This is one to keep an eye on along the way and see if he can explode that "nice" inheritance and bring it up with some knockout performances. 1-6-2018 THE SHAM STAKES - 1 mi. - SANTA ANITA Beyer: 97 First Win Above. MCKINZIE DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 8-5-1-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 14-14-16 1-13-2018 LECOMTE - 1mi.70 - FAIRGROUNDS Beyer: 92 INSTILLED REGARD DP = 2-5-13-2-0 (22) DI = 1.59 CD = 0.32 Mare Profile = 6-4-7-6-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.79 Triads = 17-17-21 Yes! Definite Yes! Stamina inheritance with a serious set of triads. Very very good. Triads are compiled from the best of the best (Reines) who are proven to pass through high quality blood, graded stakes winners. The more of these mares show up in a chart, the more high quality attributes the colt receives. This is imperative to win the Kentucky Derby. He has it. Being on one of the two extremes (high speed inheritance vs high stamina inheritance) is also a main ingredient to winning the Derby. He has it. Stamina Boy. The type who can keep on going past the Triple Crown Series, winning races like the Haskell, Travers, Breeders Classic and the Pegasus. He has the inheritance to be able to conquer all of them because he has the stamina to do it. Major Stamina contender for the Derby. 1-13-2018 JEROME STAKES - 1 mi. - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 85 First Win Above FIRENZE FIRE DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18 1-15-2018 SMARTY JONES - 1 mi. - OAKLAWN Beyer: 99 MOURINHO DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Mare Profile = 12-4-2-2-11 Speed = 16 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.15 Triads = 18-8-15 No chance whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby. Not enough stamina inheritance to make the 10f. Excellent miler. 2-3-2018 WITHERS - 1 1/8 - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 87 AVERY ISLAND DP = 4-5-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.65 Mare Profile = 5-4-3-8-7 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.68 Triads = 12-15-18 I would say at this early stage that he is the absolute top contender for the 12f Belmont Stakes. (That is, from USA - Ruggero from overseas has SERIOUS Belmont numbers) Its a shame because this is a very good horse. But this guy has Belmont Stakes numbers, not Kentucky Derby numbers. It is not a matter of not having the stamina to compete in the Derby, it is the matter of not having the speed needed for winning at 10f. He is too lopsided to stamina and has that average spread inheritance from his chefs. The low triads are not good for the Derby, but they are the perfect configuration (very low and steadily creep up) for the Belmont. He would be considered a longshot bet in the Derby if you wanna take a shot with one of those "average inheritance" horses. He is very talented and will no doubt perform well along the way, but the Derby is its own league and these numbers suffer there. 2-3-2018 THE HOLY BULL - 1 1/16 - GULFSTREAM Beyer: 99 AUDIBLE DP = 3-1-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.17 Mare Profile = 7-7-8-8-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.32 Triads = 22-23-19 YES! YES! YES! Derby Futures Bet? YES! Rain or shine? YES! Triads spectacular? YES! High speed demon? YES! As of right now, mid-February, this is the only speed contender with every single number in its rightful place. He has inherited the highest amount of speed of the group so far coupled with a strong potential of carrying that speed the 10f distance because of his mares contribution. Think Classic Empire with a better jockey. Basically the same configurations getting a better trip. This is the number one top contender for the 2018 Kentucky Derby based on his superb inheritance configurations. None compare at this point. These are the types of numbers that win the Kentucky Derby. But - here is the sting... He is an Into Mischief colt. They usually stand out on the trail and then lack in the Derby with the distance. They seem to want shorter distances even though their mares handed it to them. The differences with this guy are two-fold. One, he inherited much more speed than the normal Into Mischief son from the bottom of his chart through his chefs and also with his mares index coming from both the top and the bottom, which is giving him more speed than the average Into Mischief colt. Secondly, his Mares profile is not split in two and his chefs points are very very low which means he should rely on the females in his chart much more than the chefs and his immediate sire. This makes me believe he may be a different "type of Into Mischief" colt. And that goes to the positive especially with the huge lack of other speed demons at this point. He is the only one so far in the mix and he posted a serious beyer number. There is no other to push him off of his game yet. He is all alone. Also, with the tremendous possibility every year of rain and a sloppy mess of a track, he is unmatched in that regard as well. But depending on the caliber of speed horses who could possibly jump onto the Derby Train in upcoming events, his high Mare index could keep him from making it passed the final turn. This is the big dilemma that could stand in his way to winning the roses. Right now, he has nothing to worry about but come the week before the Derby, I think he may have some speed competition that he can not afford. In which case, he is still a strong player for a board hit. If comparing to another recent Into Mischief son, Practical Joke, Audible inherited much more speed than PJ. They both share incredible triads and high inheritance of speed from Mares. Practical Joke did well on the trail and his 5th place in the Derby was highly commendable. Now picture that same race without the two speed demons in there, Always Dreaming and Classic Empire. Practical Joke would have hit the board even with the high speed index from his mares. The triads are that fantastic. This is where Audible stands right now - there is no Always Dreaming or Classic Empire in the mix - yet. 2-3-2018 ROBERT LEWIS - 1 1/16 - SANTA ANITA Beyer: 86 LOMBO DP = 4-4-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 7-2-5-4-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.78 Triads = 14-11-18 High speed guy with a beautiful set of chef numbers. Very nice configuration there. His mare numbers are lacking but not horrible. At the very least they do lean to stamina (unlike Kanthaka which is opposite). The 11 in the Classic slot of his triads leads me to believe though that he will pedal backwards before the final turn at Churchill. He will excel on the Trail because he does not have much company in the gates as far as high chef speed inheritance coupled with a bit of stamina his mares. But at 10f, thats pushing it a bit too far. If that 11 in the middle of his triads were a bit higher, he might have had a shot. Reminds me of Outwork from 2016. 2-10-2018 SAM DAVIS - 1 1/16 - TAMPA BAY Beyer: 92 FLAMEAWAY DP = 8-1-6-1-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 9-4-3-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.93 Triads = 16-13-18 To win the derby, a colt needs to have a very high amount of inbred speed coupled with high amount of inbred stamina. Thats common sense of course. Most receive an overabundance on one side or the other. Too much speed and not enough stamina to carry it 10f or too much stamina and not enough jets to pass the speed. Then there are the ones who are balanced on both sides. An average amount of inherited speed, enough to get by and win some early races coupled with an average amount of inherited stamina to compete as the distances get longer. They get a gate in the Kentucky Derby. If speed takes over in the Derby, these types lack enough inherited speed to beat them. If stamina takes over in the race, they do not have enough inherited stamina to beat them. They hit the board either way. And thats it. They hit the board. With the configuration of his triads, this is the real predicament with this guy. His saving grace is that .93 higher index from the mares to go along with his 3x inherited speed from the chefs. He will do very well along the trail because of the inherited speed at those distances, but lacks the sufficient amount of Reines in his chart at the Classic distance (that 13 in the triads hurts). This might keep him below par with most of the others at 10f in the Derby. 2-17-2018 RISEN STAR - 1 1/16 - FAIRGROUNDS Beyer: 93 BRAVAZO - DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-3-3-8-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 15-14-16 Another guy with an index that stands in the center and triads that are mediocre. What he does have though is a very high Mare's speed index and the chefs are dominant in the Classic distance. He also has a fairly high number of points - 30. This is the type that could be reliable in that he may just end up being on that lower end of the speed spectrum (his 2.75 is low but at the very least, somewhat closer to the 3.00 mark) and depending who else boards this train, he could have a little something going for him because of that mare index. Other than that, the triads kill it. 2-17-2018 EL CAMINO - 1 1/8 - GOLDEN GATE Beyer: 86 PAVED - DP = 2-4-10-0-0 (16) DI = 2.20 CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 8-4-3-4-11 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 15-11-18 Her chefs numbers are good. Her mares numbers are boring. Somewhat split. Just from the numbers, not sure this one inherited enough speed to compete in the Derby. The 8 in the Brilliant slot is good but the mare index is kinda low matched up against the Chefs. She may have too much stamina and not enough speed. One more performance to see where she stands. Side note: Just realized this is a filly! I'm not good with filly dosage, so take that with a grain of salt. 2-19-2018 SOUTHWEST - 1 1/16 - OAKLAWN Beyer: 93 My Boy Jack - DP = 3-2-13-0-0 (18) DI = 1.77 CD = 0.44 Mare Profile = 13-3-3-4-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.52 Triads = 19-10-14 This is nice. Another Stamina guy who is packing a beautiful amount of speed from his Mares. Looks like the stamina guys are really taking a stand this year. His chefs numbers are gorgeous and the fact that he inherited an overabundance of speed (13 in brilliant - 19 in first Triads) really looks nice. He's got alot of races under his belt and he looks like he will be even more comfortable the longer he goes. This is another very strong stamina contender. 2-25-2018 - MINE THAT BIRD STAKES - 1 1/16 - SUNLAND PARK - (NO POINTS) RERIDE – 2.50 DP = 2-5-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.57 Mare Profile = 5-4-4-7-8 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.67 Triads = 13-15-19 No points for this race but should be mentioned as prep for Sunland Derby. This little Candy Ride boy has that horrible 2.50 index but somehow has managed to win 4 out of his 5 races all under his optimum distance. The combo of a Candy Ride– Remit (Tapit) colt could be lethal. I like his numbers very much for the Belmont Stakes and he definitely rivals Avery Island in that regard. But with this little guy, winning these short races only suggest he has that hidden speed factor that is so prevalent with good Candy Ride Boys. The triads lean very strongly to stamina and that low Mare index under that low chef CD only make these wins that much more impressive. This one has that average index so abhorrent for the Derby, however, there is always that chance of the one breakout star in that group. The Chef CD 0.57 is depicting more stamina and that .67 low mare index only enhances his stamina. He wins short races. Just like a couple of his hot shot half brothers (Gun Runner/Shared Belief) from the recent past. Same style, same type. More speed inheritance than both from the bottom of his chart but still holding that strong amount of stamina. Right now, he sits with Catholic Boy and Avery Island in that regard but he has no points yet. I have no doubt that he will gather those points. This guy reminds me very very much of Tonalist (his cousin). I like him very much for an "average guy" going forward. He is outrunning his numbers. 3-3-2018 FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH - 1 1/16 - GULFSTREAM Beyer:96 PROMISES FULFILLED DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00 CD = 1.10 Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16 Shackleford colt who added another dimension to the speed group. Would have thought that it would have been Gotta GO but he was no match for the speed on the lead of this guy. 9.00 index is 9 times more inherited male speed than stamina. That is alot. Great for the bias on the lead at Gulfstream but is he packing enough to keep going to 10f. His triads are stronger on the stamina end and he did gain a bit more stamina than speed from his mares. My gut is telling me that if this race were run at Churchill, he would not be mentioned today. Sometimes a colt is built for the track and you have to look deeper to see what was lurking behind him. Good Magic, Strike Power and Machismo would have told a different story at Churchill. And even though Machismo came in 4th, his performance told a huge story yesterday. My gut is also telling me that 10f with 20 horses at Churchill is way past what Promises's mares gave him. But, send him to Parx for their Derby at 1 1/8th and he looks like a real winner. Unfortunately, I think the triads fall short for Kentucky. 3-10-2018 GOTHAM - 1 mi. - AQUEDUCT Beyer: 95 ENTICED - DP = 7-8-9-2-0 (26) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.77 Mare Profile = 13-2-3-3-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.19 Triads = 18-8-16 First win above but I will add a few things here. This particular race, The Gotham, is a bit over-rated in terms of Derby Preps. Many good horses have won this race along the way - J Boys Echo, Shagaf, El Kabeir, Samraat, Vyjack, Hansen, etc. And most all of those guys sat in the limelight right afterwards for quite a long time. A particular "type" wins the Gotham on Aqueduct's track, basically a certain set-up that thrives in that race. That set-up is not the set-up that wins at 10f at Churchill. Every Derby prep race will have its own advantages and sometimes those advantages are quite the opposite for The Derby. What wins at 1 mile at Aqueduct generally does not win at 10f at Churchill Downs. There is something to be said though about the possibility of a horse that just has that will to win and the need to have his nose out front at the conclusion of his races. The other huge grey area concerning Enticed is to what extent does Medaglio D'Oro offer those hidden spectacular qualities that helps the colt run past his numbers. This guys mares numbers are awful for lack of a better word, however, could it be possible that Enticed can actually leave that portion in the barn being the son of a Medaglio D'Oro? It wouldn't be the first time. 3-10-2018 TAMPA BAY - 1 1/16 - TAMPA BAY Beyer: 94 QUIP DP = 7-2-6-0-1 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88 Mare Profile = 9-6-1-9-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.04 Triads = 16-16-17 A few things here. First, the guy above him (Enticed) beat the daylights out him at Churchill going 1 1/16th. Says alot about Enticed. Second, his mares set-up is much prettier than Enticed for the 10f distance at the same track. Here we have another guy with a very strong possibility of making some noise in the Belmont Stakes. Recent winners of this prep who have also taken a gate at Belmont have done well there. This striking horse has something going on with that 1.04 mare index for Kentucky but I am not sure yet if it is enough. He is on the border. It will highly depend on who he is ultimately grouped with in that exact 3.00 group. As of right now, he has Enticed who he was no match for at that distance - Flameaway who might have beat him yesterday had he not had a bad start and also steadying - Greyvitos who is very closely aligned with Quip as far as inheritance and type - And Bolt D'Oro which is another thing altogether. (See next race) 3-10-2018 SAN FELIPE - 1 1/16 - SANTA ANITA Beyer: 101 (McKinzie DQ) BOLT D'ORO DP = 7-11-12-2-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-8-16 I spent alot of time looking this guy over last night so I will add to what I said above. First and foremost, I stand by those thoughts on his horrible mare numbers when it comes to the Derby. The Medaglia D'Oro phenomenon must be factored in at this point. Just like Enticed, who has that horrible set of mare numbers as well, seem to be disregarding that side of their inheritance which is not something you see everyday. The only thing that ties them together with their numbers vs their performances is Medaglia. Could this sire be so dominant as to take over the mare inheritance? It almost seems that could be a strong possibility. The other thing that is in Bolt's favor is that high 32 points he received from his chefs. At this point, he is packing the most inherited blood from the best sires across the board. Could that chefs profile take over completely with his immediate sire? That is the big question and so far he seems to be outrunning his mare inheritance which would be imperative to win the Derby. His chefs profile is loaded and gorgeous, his mares profile is not. This is the type that will make your head spin come the day before the Derby. He must still be considered as a contender based on his performances vs his numbers. The only other thing besides the Medaglia factor is that Mare profile 11-2-2-4-10. It is split and usually I would say that the colt needs to pick a side instead of hovering in the middle (which they usually do). It could be that Bolt did pick a side already and he has chosen to side with that 10 in the Professional category. If that is true, look out Audible and Good Magic. You have a 3.00 loaded hotshot that won't care how much inherited speed you both have. Bolt will be coming, fully loaded. If this truly is Bolt's path, he has it all. ---- Must also mention McKinzie regardless of DQ, he was right there with Bolt dominating the field which included some serious speed. McKinzie is truly performing beyond that 2.33 index and he is definitely one horse in that average category that is far outrunning his numbers. Shades of Frosted come Derby Day. 3-17-2018 REBEL STAKES Oaklawn Park 1 1/16 Beyer: 97 MAGNUM MOON DP = 8-9-15-0-0 (32) DI = 3.27 CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 5-4-3-7-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.61 Triads = 12-14-19 Now we have another Speed Contender on board. Very closely in line with Good Magic. High Classic Dominance from Chefs with a nice speed index. Good CD. Mares slammed him with stamina. And the loaded 32 points is the cherry on top. Great for the Derby. (And possibly the Belmont as well because of that mare index) This guy has the numbers for the sun and the rain at 10f at Churchill. He also has the right triads and mare index to compete at Belmont which makes him the only contender on the field so far to possibly take the entire Triple Crown. This guy is an extremely serious contender. The only thing he will need to overcome in the Derby is his triad configuration. That first number hurts but the 8 and 9 in his chefs profile may make up for the speed he lacks from the mares. His performance in this prep race looks like he is using that chef speed to the fullest. Most important from the mares is the crazy amount of stamina he inherited. That will help him handle the 3 races much easier than most of the rest of these guys. 3-17-2018 JEFF RUBY STAKES Turfway Park 1 1/8 Beyer: 83 BLENDED CITIZEN DP = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Mare Profile = 6-6-5-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 17-18-19 And yet another Exact 3.00 guy. I believe we are up to 5 now (not including Justify or Mourinho) I will reserve a huge assessment here - But I will note that his mare triads are configured much better than the rest of them and his chefs gave him more stamina to go with that 3.00 index. 3-24-2018 LOUISIANA - 1 1/8 - FAIRGROUNDS - Beyer - 95 NOBLE INDY DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 10-4-3-4-6 Speed = 14 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.42 Triads = 17-11-13 Three more winners with exact 3.00 chef indexes in the past 3 preps. Its all filled up. But there is no comparison between the mares with the three of them. This guy inherited too much speed to compete at 10f along side all of the stamina that will be in the gate with him. He looks like he will be a player all the way through up until about the top of the stretch. His triads are backwards for 10f. Blended Citizen has great numbers, but he appears slow. And then there is Runaway Ghost from Sunland who also won going a bit slow too: 3-25-2018 SUNLAND - 1 1/8 - SUNLAND - Beyer - 85 RUNAWAY GHOST DP = 4-6-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 5-8-3-11-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.95 Triads = 16-22-18 Another 3.00 guy, with a huge difference. Really spectacular Mare numbers to go along with it. Excellent set-up. Lower numbers in the early speed categories hurt a little. Even though the chef numbers are a bit different, this guy reminds me very much of Hence from last year. Really nice set up with the numbers but the performances, although good, are a bit off. He must up his game on the speed side to compete alongside some of the others, but it doesn't appear that his inheritance handed him too much of that. He has the 10f just fine, it is now a matter of being as fast as the others who also have the 10f. Great numbers, but is he up to par speed-wise with some of those other 3.00 guys? Doesn't appear so but those numbers are really nice. The irony of this... In this 3.00 category we have a few superstars that appear to be real threats. Those superstars have horrendous mare numbers. The few who aren't getting (and will not get) much attention in this category are Runaway Ghost, Blended Citizen and Quip. And those 3 guys have much better mare inheritance for Churchill day. The bigger this 3.00 category gets with each passing prep, the harder it will be to distinguish any type of advantage. What wins at Churchill for the Derby leans to Quip, Blended and Runaway Ghost but the performances to date lean towards Bolt, Enticed and Flameaway. This 3.00 category is out of control this year. JUSTIFY Chefs: DP = 5-6-8-1-0 (20) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Mares: DP = 9-4-4-7-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-15-19 Yes, he looks good. And his numbers are good too. He is in that exact 3.00 category with Flameaway, Bolt, Quip and Enticed. The difference with him and his immediate peers is his mare triad numbers couple with his Chef CD: Enticed: Triads = 18-8-16 Chefs CD = .77 (Even) Bolt: Triads = 15-8-16 Chefs CD = .72 (more Stamina) Flameaway: Triads = 16-13-18 Chefs CD = 1.00 (more speed) Quip: Triads = 16-16-17 Chefs CD = .88 (Even) Justify: Triads = 17-15-19 Chefs CD = .75 (More Stamina) Enticed and Bolt are really split with their triads and USUALLY not good for the Derby. But, as noted before, maybe the Medaglia factor will be a boost there. With triads and the Derby, every single point matters. The top configuration of course would be 20's across all slots. Very rare but very lethal for the Derby. Every point that it drops away from 20 in EACH SLOT really affects most all horses who are entered in that particular race. The first number depicts speed inherited from 4f to about 7.5f. Of course speed is a main ingredient to winning any race. High inheritance here above 16 points is extremely important because being on the lowest end of the speed spectrum, these 3.00 guys need to get a big shot of speed in order to compete with those big guys above them. (Example Audible with a chef index of 5.00 and triads 22-23-19.) Audible gained 5x more speed than stamina whereas these 5 guys gained 3x. Audible gained a huge 22 points worth of EXTRA speed from his mares, whereas these 5 guys only range between 15 to 18. May not seem like a huge difference in points, but it is a huge difference on the track. Justify has 17 points in that spot which is better than norm. 15 and 16 is fairly normal, 17-18 is good. 19-20+ is fantastic. Moving on to the Classic distance - Enticed and Bolt have absolutely horrible numbers here. Both have only 8 points. This shows the split in all its glory between the mare speed and the mare stamina. This may not have as great as an effect on Bolt mainly because he gained a very large amount of points in his profile from his chefs. 7-11-12-2-0 (32). When a Derby colt is loaded from their chefs, sometimes the mares inheritance does not play as big of a factor with a horse bred like this. With Justify his 15 is a slight dip which is something that you don't want to see, but it is only 2 points so its not horrible. Again, comparing to Audible with a whopping 23 in his Classic spot is shining a large light on him with that 5.00 index. Moving to the Stamina slot - It is important that the 3.00 colt gains extra speed to compete with the advantaged guys above them but it is even more important to have gained enough stamina to carry that speed the 10f distance. A 20 in the last slot is the goal. None of the 3.00 guys hit that mark, however, Justify has a 19. He has the stamina to run 10f because of two things, that 19 in his last slot coupled with his .75 CD from his chefs. The lower the CD with a 3.00 indexed colt the better for stamina. Under .75 is the key there IF THE TRIADS ARE LACKING A BIT. If the triads hit 20's, then the mares inheritance is ample enough for that 10f. If the triads are are significantly under the 20 mark then they need to be about .75 or under. Bolt and Justify hit that mark BUT Justify hits the mark much better across the board with his mares. Justify's profile from his chefs is gorgeous. Perfectly configured progression across the 5 distances. He gained a nice shot of speed from his mares (9) but the most important numbers, the last 2 numbers in his mares profile are perfect. The profile leans to stamina. It is not split. He has the distance and he has the speed. These are good numbers for a 3.00 guy. He gained some extra needed speed to compete with the big guys above him (and fortunate for him there aren't alot) AND he gained enough stamina from the mares and with that lower CD. I believe that the .75 index is a huge advantage with his triads set up against the other 3.00 guys. Since there are really only 2 horses at this point who have inherited SERIOUS speed and really beautiful dosage set-ups, one or two of these 3.00 guys will have to be part of that top category mix because of a lack of contenders there. Out of the 5, it is Justify who seems to have the best set up as far as inheritance. Having the will to run past their numbers is an entirely different thing though. In that regard, Bolt D'Oro seems to be the player there. His mare numbers are so stinkin bad but they have not overtaken his loaded 32 points from his chefs - and I don't think they will. When the preps are over and if Justify has a gate, the handicapping of the match-up between Bolt and Justify will be at the top of the list. A 3.00 guy hits the board in the Derby more often than not, especially when there is a lack of speed horses entered. On a clear sunny day, I would take Justify over Bolt D'Oro going 10f at Churchill (with Audible). On a rainy sloppy day, I would take Bolt because of the loaded profile (with Audible). (Adding a side note here.) On a rainy sloppy day, Flameaway also would have an advantage with Bolt. His 1.00 index from the mares is giving him much more additional speed than the rest of that group and his triads set up does give him at least the possibility of carrying it 10f because it is highest in his last slot. If it remains that there are only the 2 high speed entrants with the right amount of mare stamina, Flameaway would in fact get a boost because out of the five 3.00 guys, he inherited the highest amount of speed from his mares among them. Lots to consider, because the 3.00 category will be players this year. 3-31-2018 UAE DERBY - 1 3/16th Mendelssohn - DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64 Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17 Writing this 10 minutes after seeing his performance in this race and will try to just concentrate on the numbers as it pertains to the Kentucky Derby without the wow factor. That was so spectacular so it will be difficult. The #1 thing that stands out is that DP, the Profile. 5-0-8-1-0. This is the type of configuration the totally stands on its own. I referred to this in the first analysis from his Patton win but must be addressed again. When there are zeros positioned within the profile, this is a sign that the inheritance from the chefs will stand exactly as shown with no wondering if it gets watered down. It is concrete. The low points just add complete confidence in what is shown there is exact. Mendelssohn gained perfect pure speed with the ability to carry that speed @ approx 11.3f from his chefs alone. Most times all horses need the mares numbers to back-up their inheritance. In this guys case, the mares contribution is icing on the cake and that icing is spectacular for a stamina horse. Evenly spread across and that shot of speed from the mares to go along with the high stamina from the chefs is killer. His ability to tackle different surfaces shows that he is utilizing the high quality styles and preferences from across the board of his chefs and his reines. For the Derby, on a clean clear day, speed dominates the superfecta and a stamina guy will find himself within that top 4 as a rule in the history of this race. When the stamina participants are finally grouped together, Mendelssohn will surely stand out as the top pick within that group. If it rains, as a general rule, stamina will suffer. However, since this guy has tackled a variety of surfaces with complete dominance, there is that possibility that the slop will not have a negative impact on him. This guy is the only stamina horse that should still be considered if it rains come Derby Day based on his ability to tackle it all. Major contender for not only the Derby, but the rest of the Triple Crown, the Breeders Classic and the Pegasus. These "types" of thoroughbreds, high stamina inheritance who carry their speed as long as they want to run are not a dime a dozen. These are rare gems that represent top quality that never ends. First analysis from 3-2-2018 PATTON - 1 mi. SYNTH - IRELAND MENDELSSOHN DP = 5-0-8-1-0 (14) DI = 1.80 CD = 0.64 Mare Profile = 7-6-4-8-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.09 Triads = 17-18-17 Can't go wrong with Aiden O'Brien. He knows how to get the best out of his horses. So far this guy has won a huge race against a field of 14 on Breeders Weekend on turf. He wins another huge race after a bit of a layoff on Synthetic. He's got that Animal Kingdom/Mubtaahij/Toast of New York thing going on. That chefs Profile: 5-0-8-1-0 is gorgeous. That is exactly the type of stamina profile that stands on its own. No questions, no messing around, no trying to dissect and read between the lines. His important sires had speed AND they had the classic distance AND that is exactly what they passed down. He also has Ribot and Flower Bowl at the bottom of his chart which is always an added bonus. So when a colt has a low CD (0.64) it is always nice to see a shot of real speed from the mares. He received it. 17 beautiful points in that first slot of the triads coupled with a mare index above 1.00. What is also very nice is that the triads are spread evenly so that speed (nor that stamina) gets watered down. It is there. Can he tackle all surfaces? We shall see. Can he beat Saxon Warrior in Dubai? We shall see. If Le Vent Se Leve shows up in Dubai can he beat him? I highly doubt that, however, I highly doubt any of them could beat Le Vent. But that guy probably won't be participating so there is always that. Mendelssohn has a spectacular stamina dosage set up, he can travel and he is winning on different surfaces. He just may be a monster. Stamina is dominating this years road to the Derby. And the only thing that truly makes this year so exciting is handicapping the Kentucky Derby with the thought of the possibility of rain. Can you imagine being able to cross off 3/4's of the field without hesitation! I don't believe we have ever had the pleasure of that! But if it doesn't rain, we have yet another guy who can not be crossed off. If its a sunny day in Kentucky on the first Saturday in May, this is gonna be excruciating to handicap.
  • (Originally posted at HRF May 2017) Classic Empire out of Belmont with Foot problems again. Updating this with him and Timber out and Hollywood Handsome in. It's sad. Empire can't catch a break. Best Advantage: (Only in terms of inheritance) IRISH WAR CRY DP = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Conduit Mare Profile = 5-5-0-11-8 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.56 Triads = 10-16-19 (Highest mare stamina in this group) PATCH DP = 6-10-13-1-0 (30) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.70 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-0-9-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.81 Triads = 13-13-18 (Good Balance) SENIOR INVESTMENT DP = 3-3-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.75 Conduit Mare Profile = 11-4-1-8-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.87 Triads = 16-13-20 (Good Balance) TAPWRIT DP = 6-9-12-1-0 (28) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71 Conduit Mare Profile = 11-5-3-6-6 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.43 Triads = 19-14-15 (Highest mare Speed in this group) GORMLEY DP = 7-5-12-2-0 (26) DI = 2.25 CD = 0.65 Conduit Mare Profile = 6-6-4-6-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 16-16-19 (Great Balance) Speed: MEANTIME DP = 4-5-3-0-0 (12) DI = 7.00 CD = 1.08 Conduit Mare Profile = 6-7-2-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.81 Triads = 15-15-17 (Should not be here) HOLLYWOOD HANDSOME DP = 1-6-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67 CD = 0.80 Conduit Mare Profile = 10-2-5-3-9 Speed = 12 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.04 Triads = 17-10-17 (Should hang with Meantime) J BOYS ECHO DP = 8-9-11-0-0 (28) DI = 4.09 CD = 0.89 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-4-3-11 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 17-11-18 MULTIPLIER DP = 5-3-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.93 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-6-5-5-5 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.25 Triads = 18-16-15 (Too much Speed) LOOKIN AT LEE DP = 5-7-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40 CD = 0.77 Conduit Mare Profile = 6-6-4-8-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.85 Triads = 16-18-19 Stamina: (will have advantage in mud) EPICHARIS (JPN) DP = 4-1-14-3-0 (22) DI = 1.20 CD = 0.27 Conduit Mare Profile = 3-8-2-13-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.70 Triads = 13-23-19 (More Stamina) TWISTED TOM DP = 3-0-11-1-1 (16) DI = 1.13 CD = 0.19 Conduit Mare Profile = 7-7-5-6-7 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.04 Triads = 19-18-18 (More Speed)

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