November 2, 2018
Post Time: 6:05 pm
5.00 Derby Date
DP = 8-4-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.11
Mare Profile = 7-5-5-6-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.14 Triads = 17-16-16
Will Take Charge
With the undeniable leaning towards speed as shown in that 5.00 chef index coupled with the high 1.14 index from the mares, this guy has only shown that speed one time at 7f and even then he was not able to get the job done. With all of the inherited speed he should have (at the very least) been able to shine going shorter. This horse does not belong here.
DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00 CD = 0.90
Mare Profile = 6-9-1-7-6 Speed = 15 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.10 Triads = 16-17-14
Lead horse who will travel an extra 1/16th this time out. Does he have the extra distance? By the skin of his teeth. Does he require an inside draw? Seems to be the case. This guy is pure speed with an optimum no more than 9f. If he draws an outside post he will be caught off his game. This horse is almost too fast out front and he winds his runs down significantly towards the end no matter the distance. Very fast horse but be wary of that high beyer number with his first 2 races. He is traveling further this time, with a few others who want that lead spot. His numbers are tight with the stamina. With the proper gate assignment, he might just make his lead and travel nicely through the backstretch. Since his numbers slope in the wrong direction, his stamina is very limited. He may be able to squeak a board hit but alot depends on that gate placement for him. He is going to compete with Knicks Go, Mind Control, Tight Ten, Well Defined and possibly Code of Honor for that spot. This means the pace will be wicked for the first 1/8th. He is up against too much stamina with those other guys to sustain it.
DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 5-8-2-7-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index =0.87 Triads = 15-17-16
This guys Brilliant speed numbers are low, his mares index is boring, his triads are average. The big tell with this guy is that with a 3.80 index from his chefs, his speed should be on par with guys like Complexity and Well Defined but even on a sloppy track going only 5f, his beyer was dismal. He has a way of hitting the board but I am assuming that he wasn’t up against a ton of speed. A bit too low par with the numbers and the PP’s for my taste.
3.80 Standard Deviation
DP = 10-11-15-0-0 (36) DI = 3.80 CD = 0.86
Mare Profile = 7-4-2-7-10 Speed = 11 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.69 Triads = 13-13-19
This guy wants to run FAR. Much further than this 1 1/16th. He has gorgeous numbers, beautiful speed inheritance from his chefs, a ton of stamina from his mares and one of the best point spreads (6) on the field. The higher amount of total points in the chef’s profile (36) is very nice especially if the pace gets out of hand up front. Also with the high points total in each of his Brilliant 4-6f (10) – Intermediate 7-9f (11) – Classic 10-12f (15) he is showing by his PP’s that the distance doesn’t faze him one bit. He has run at his pace consistently throughout each distance of his first 3 races. Since his high numbers spread across those 3 distances coupled with the high amount of mare stamina he will be able to sustain his speed but that speed will remain average here just as it has been from 5f thru the 8.5f. This is not necessarily a bad thing especially with a hot pace. However, it would seem that the high amount of inherited sprinters speed would have allowed this guy to run much faster across the board in his first 3 – but he is running average and he is definitely favoring his mares. This guy has some potential to grab a board hit only because he may be forced to keep up with a faster pace this time and his mares will allow him to sustain it.
3.00 Tight Ten
DP = 7-10-14-1-0 (32) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.72
Mare Profile = 11-4-0-5-11 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.96 Triads = 15-9-16
This guy’s inheritance reminds me very much of Enticed from last year. Almost exactly the same in their speed/stamina balance along with the grit to get to that stretch ahead of the pack. These are not Derby numbers, but this race is not the Derby and at 8.5f his numbers are very good. Notice how the triads are even on the right (speed) with the left (stamina) which waters everything down to having great ease with running this particular distance. Even better that his past performance sheet is all East Coast. This guy is one to keep in your line-up. He has a great set-up for this particular race to be a major player somewhere on that board.
3.00 Trophy Chaser
DP = 3-1-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.88
Mare Profile = 5-6-5-11-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.81 Triads = 16-22-21
This guy is very odd all the way around. His chefs profile is not good and when looked at objectively, the 3 in the sprinters slot that is separated by the 1 in the Intermediate slot would appear on the surface to be great for 8.5f, (his speed stays pure)but it gets knocked down by only having a 4 in the Classic slot. The mares are very spread out in the first 3 slots of the profile, which is very “average” and does not enhance the chefs profile at all. His triads suggest that he has not run at his optimum yet, however, it does not appear that he wants anything to do with his mares inheritance. This is extremely apparent by his 15 length win on a sloppy track at Gulfstream going only 6f. He favors the 3 in his Chefs Brilliant slot. The numbers on the bottom say 8.5f should be quite fine for him but it does not appear that he cares about that at all. If the track happens to turn up sloppy he would have to be considered underneath. On a clean track, the way he appears to use his numbers coupled with his resume leave a lot to be desired.
DP = 7-5-9-1-0 (22) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.82
Mare Profile = 8-5-3-5-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 16-13-15
This set up is very nice for the 8.5f distance. (But not good for 10f Derby). For this race they are REALLY good. He is very much aligned with Tight Ten but his numbers are even better. He has inherited a very nice amount of combined speed and since his triads are balanced he will be in a good position to capitalize at this particular distance. He can run evenly over the 8.5f, he won’t get caught up in the lead speed duel, and he will be able to sustain his speed while some others pedal backwards in front of him. This guy is a must if you play supers because the distance suits him against many others who are entered. He is a West coast runner so his advantage is knocked down a peg or two on the Churchill track but his inheritance should give him enough to beat out many on this field for a shot at that board.
3.00 Mr. Money
DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 5-3-6-9-3 Speed = 8 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.90 Triads = 14-18-18
Another guy on the field who is packing a serious amount of mare stamina and in this case with his chefs points total at only 2, he will have all of his influence come from his mares. He is not a sprinter by any stretch (even his low .50 Chefs CD screams that fact) and his point spread in the mares is crying for distance. With each consecutive distance going forward he will get better and better. The likelihood that he will step up going further than the 8.5f is very real which means that there is a good probability that he can step it up a notch trying this distance once again on the same track. There is definitely something here even though his past performance sheet is not as sparkling and shiny like some of the others, his ability lies in the stamina gained against many on the field. He will not be a fast and dazzling horse that catches everyone's attention but he will be able to go the distance quietly and under the radar. A fairly good (and quiet) underneath play for the odds that he most likely will have mainly because of the high amount of lead speed pushing for a very fast race. If you are the type who loads up on your bottom superfecta spots, he is a good "just in case" proposition.
3.00 Gun Metal Gray
DP = 4-7-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.68
Mare Profile = 4-5-7-8-4 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = 0.87 Triads = 16-20-19
This gorgeous guy is loaded for both the Derby and the Belmont Stakes which means you must look for the amount of speed needed to conquer a distance well below the 10 and 12f distance. If a horse’s optimum is further than the race at hand, we must isolate the aspects of his numbers coupled with what he has shown in his past performances that would allow him to be comfortable and successful racing at 8.5f. The evidence is definitely there. He controls his speed early and lets it loose late. The 7 in his Intermediate slot (7-8-9f) is fantastic and his lower CD allows him to sustain. His triads are gorgeous across the board. It would appear by these numbers that Churchill Downs will be more to his liking and hopefully he travels well. As a “speed” guy he is pitted against Dueling and Tight Ten as his immediate peers. All 3 are very closely aligned. All 3 have lower Chef CD’s which is not the most ideal for 8.5f. All three have optimums that are further than 8.5f. But out of the three, it appears that Dueling may be a bit more suited for this particular race but all three have enough of a speed/stamina combination to be players.
2.27 Well Defined
DP = 5-3-9-1-0 (18) DI = 2.27 CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 6-7-5-4-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.14 Triads = 18-16-15
This set-up is gorgeous. His balance between the chefs and the mares is so evenly balanced. The .67 CD (stamina leaning) on top of that 1.14 Mare index is very nice for this distance. His mare profile definitely leans to the right (speed) and it is nicely counteracted with that lower CD. I love this profile for the distance very much. His past performances show that Chef influence the longer he goes and out on the lead he will continue to roll along while the others fade. He is a huge threat as one of the top 3 of this field based on both his past performances and his numbers for this distance. The configurations of his COMBINED chef and mare speed/stamina balance give him the #1 advantage on this field. Major player along with Game Winner and Code of Honor. The only negative with this guy is that the bias between Gulfstream Park in September and Churchill Downs in November is not comparable and his performance at this track will undoubtedly differ. But, here is the twist – if he leans towards his chefs he may actually perform better at Churchill. It does appear though that because of his style of running, he looks to be more partial to his mares and this will affect his advantage at Churchill. Either way, he is must remain as a great prospect in this race above 90% of the others.
2.64 Knicks Go
DP = 3-6-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64 CD = 0.60
Mare Profile = 8-3-4-10-3 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.15 Triads = 15-17-17
This guy is very closely aligned with Well Defined above him but the standout difference is that Well Defined gained more speed from his inheritance. Notice the point spread between the two. More stamina with Knicks but more speed with Well Defined. Notice the 10 in the mares Solid spot in that profile as opposed to Well Defined’s 4 in the same slot. That is a huge difference. At 8.5f, speed dictates and because everything else lines up, these 2 guys must be handicapped and pitted against each other. The fact that Well Defined has the inheritance to SUSTAIN his speed going this distance, the fact that Knicks Go is faster to the lead, and the fact that Knicks Go packed it in his with his speed going shorter on 3 separate occasions, leads me to conclude that the speed that will no doubt be shown on the lead by many on this field will be way too much for Knicks Go to keep up with. He has shown us that it just takes too much out of him. At 8.5f, Well Defined has the advantage.
2.33 Game Winner
DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.55
Mare Profile = 6-1-4-5-11 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.55 Triads = 11-10-20
There is nothing like a Candy Ride son laced with an unbelievable amount of stamina who wins his early races going short. The 9 point difference between his inherited speed vs his inherited stamina is staggering and this set-up is about as exceptional as you can get for the 12f Belmont Stakes. The fact that he is undefeated going so short puts a tremendous spotlight on him in not only this race but all along the Derby Trail. (His numbers suffer though in the Derby itself and he will be one where past performances dictate in that race.) With the lack of serious inherited speed coupled with his races at the distances to date, this guy looks to be the only one on the field who won’t be intimidated by the likes of Code of Honor. An absolute must for top consideration as his breeding allows him to run all day and his proven speed is top notch. The only thing going against him is that he is going against a proven East Coast monster in Code of Honor who has the upper-hand in location. This fact along with CoH’s ability to run anywhere on the track, for me, tells a lot.
2.33 Mind Control
DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.60
Mare Profile = 7-7-5-5-5 Speed = 14 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.30 Triads = 19-17-15
This guy will go searching for the lead against a couple of others and if that pace coincides with his mare breeding he will be back pedaling before the top of the stretch. His mare index is one of the highest on the field and the right wing of the mare profile is completely dominate. The low points in his chefs profile show that he does not have a great deal of them in his chart and this enhances his dependence on his mares. His chefs CD gives him enough to sustain for the 8.5f, however, his last at 7f showed a horse gearing down and being hard urged to get to that wire. Great speed inheritance here but may be a bit much to ask with the caliber on this field.
2.00 Topper T
DP = 2-4-4-2-0 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 11-3-2-7-3 Speed = 14 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.80 Triads = 16-12-12
.76 Code of Honor
DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00
Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20
Code of Honor was forced to show us how well he truly runs when he was forced out of his preferred spot by a stumble last out. This guy is fast because of that 10 in the mares Intermediate spot and he can go around the track twice if he wanted to. He has inherited the most stamina by leaps and bounds on this field. None come close. The fact that at least 3 will be showing off their inherited speed going after that lead position, Code of Honor will relish every second of that. Most likely, this guy will not be coming from the back at all and it appears that he can run anywhere he wants if he so chooses. He does not need to go with the speed duel up front but if he does, he will not bend at this distance. The 8.5f is nothing for him and his speed is extremely sustainable. If he stays mid-pack, his stamina will allow him to run in the middle of the track to pass everyone along the way. Code of Honor is top notch and this guy is the one to beat, not only in this race but in every prep along the way up until and including the Derby. His breeding is out of control and his 2 performances set him so far above. The amount of Royal chefs in this guy’s chart are top notch but what makes it so outstanding is how they blend and mix with the mares to create an unmatched speed/stamina balance. His speed matches his stamina absolutely beyond anything I’ve ever seen. Out of all of the past Breeders Cup Juvenile races that I personally have bet, this will be the first time ever with considering a Single on top of my Superfecta. I will also go so far to say that if this boy’s configurations and PP’s were found in any of the last Juvenile races since 1984, he might have been my single then as well. The only one standing in my way of taking that leap is Candy Ride’s boy Game Winner. He looks to be the only one with the stamina to go toe to toe down the stretch with him. Post position means nothing with CoH, although I would prefer an outside post to keep him from the stampede to the front. But if he goes out with them, Game Winner seems to be the only horse on this field who has the stamina to stay with him. As with a handful of horses along the years, this guy’s class does not come by performing on the track, it’s already there - he was born with it.
For more on Code of Honor: https://www.thedirtyhorseclub.com/blog/code-of-honor-a-royal-flush