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Oct 14, 2018

LONGINES DISTAFF - (updated)

4 comments

Edited: Oct 29, 2018

November 3, 2018

Post Time: 4:16 pm

 

Forever Unbridled - 2017 Distaff Winner

Numbers are posted below in order of Chef High Speed Inheritance down to Chef High Stamina Inheritance. Mares are taken into account separately. There is a big difference between how these numbers read for colts as opposed to the fillies, therefore, I can not do a normal analysis here but I wanted to at least post the chefs and mares numbers for additional handicapping reference. I will not be betting this race (I never bet fillies!) but I do hope that any who do have great luck and much success!

 

HIGH SPEED:

 

Divine Miss Grey

DP = 7-5-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.06

Mare Profile = 8-7-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-18-19

 

Monomoy Girl

DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.80

Mare Profile = 9-3-5-6-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.24   Triads = 17-14-16

 

Fuhriously Kissed

DP = 6-4-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.89

Mare Profile = 5-6-4-11-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.87   Triads = 15-21-19

 

Gambles Ghost

DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40   CD = 0.82

Mare Profile = 9-4-2-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.09   Triads = 15-14-16

 

Champagne Problems

DP = 5-11-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29   CD = 0.70

Mare Profile = 8-4-2-8-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.85   Triads = 14-14-18

 

LOWER SPEED - EXACT 3.00:

 

Midnight Bisou

DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 6-2-6-6-4   Speed = 8   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.00   Triads = 14-14-16

 

Mopotism

DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 9-3-7-6-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.12   Triads = 19-16-19

 

Wonder Gadot

DP = 7-7-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79

Mare Profile = 11-5-2-4-9   Speed = 16   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 18-11-15

 

Wow Cat

DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.72

Mare Profile = 5-7-3-7-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.77   Triads = 15-17-18

 

My Miss Lilly

DP = 4-10-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.65

Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-3-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.14   Triads = 16-14-16

 

MIDDLE:

 

Vale Dori (ARG)

DP = 2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 6-4-9-10-2   Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.09   Triads = 19-23-21

 

Abel Tasman

DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60

Mare Profile = 11-2-5-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.12   Triads = 18-12-18

 

Verve's Tale

DP = 7-7-8-2-2 (26) DI = 2.25   CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 7-5-2-8-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 14-15-16

 

STAMINA:

 

Blue Prize (ARG)

DP = 3-2-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 8-6-8-3-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.11   Triads = 22-17-19

 

Ivy Bell

DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 4-3-5-6-11   Speed = 7   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.48   Triads = 12-14-22

 

Berned

DP = 2-6-16-0-0 (24) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.42

Mare Profile = 4-8-3-7-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.86   Triads = 15-18-16

 

La Force (GER)

DP = 0-1-4-3-0 (8) DI = 0.60   CD = -0.25

Mare Profile = 5-9-3-11-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-23-19

 

 

Oct 17, 2018

Can't believe my Gambles Ghost's in here. If Abel Tasman is on her toes, she's tough to beat. Really like Wow Cat too & always hope for Wonder G. More homework.

Oct 17, 2018

Good luck with this race!! I will add the numbers soon but thats about it. I'm not going anywhere near it. You're gonna have to take the reins on this one because I have no handle on these girls. ZERO!!!

Oct 29, 2018

I posted the numbers and as you all know I rarely bet on the girls and this year will be no different. I do not have a handle on the numbers with them like I do with the guys.

 

That being said, besides the couple of hotshot favorites going into the race, the one longshot standout that I see as far as numbers (if they actually mean anything with the girls) is Champagne Problems. Her numbers are very nice for this race, but like I say, who knows when it comes to the fillies from one day to the next!!!

Good luck to all who are betting this one!

Nov 2, 2018

Very tough. If Abel & Monomoy are on, they're so hard to beat. Still considering Wonder G. For some reason I imagine she'll be okay with the unpredictable track. (Obsessed with the track these days) And agree Lisa, Champagne Problems is also a consideration.

New Posts
  • Talk of the bias yesterday was that the track was playing fairly even however, the bias as far as inheritance was definitely catering to speed. The track was saturated prior and with the exception of the Juvenile winner, Game Winner, speed type horses were definitely hitting those top spots and the board all day. (fillies as well) I am not sure if today will find that the track has dried out any more and I will be looking closely at the early races and throughout the day to see if today matches yesterday. The moisture on that track made a huge difference and if that holds up all day and into this race, everything gets flipped. Speed leaning horses like West Coast, Accelerate, McKinzie, Biscuits and Discreet Lover will have the advantage. If it is all dried out by 5:45 tonight, then the advantage will remain with Catholic Boy, Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn as it has in the past. Friday's Dirt Winners: Race 2 - Jack Van Berg - 3.00 Captain Von Trapp - 3.80 Straight Shot - 3.44 Race 3 Casino Star - 3.36 M G Warrior 3.40 Shareholder Value - 7.00 Race 4 Improbable - 4.23 Trophy Chaser - 3.00 Distant Shore - 2.43 Race 7 Jaywalk - 3.80 Restless Rider - 3.40 Vibrance - 2.11 It would be very important to gauge what TYPE is hitting today to see if the track has dried out or dries out throughout today's races. There are 2 types of Bias and most will only look at the bias of running styles (lead, mid-pack, rear). The other type is speed inheritance vs stamina inheritance. Yesterday absolutely catered to speed inheritance which is opposite of what Churchill Downs Breeders races has produced in the past. If the track remains the same as yesterday, everything must get flipped. I will try to update this post throughout the day today to see whether the track is producing the same as yesterday.
  • November 3, 2018 Post Time: 4:56 pm (Update to Post out soon)
  • November 3, 2018 Post Time: 2:46 Promises Fulfilled Chefs DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.10 Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 13-11-16 Imperial Hint DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 Mare Profile = 4-4-6-9-6   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.67   Triads = 14-19-21 Limousine Liberal DP = 3-2-10-0-1 (16) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 Mare Profile = 9-1-5-8-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 15-14-19 Roy H DP = 6-2-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60   CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.90   Triads = 18-14-20 Ransom The Moon DP = 7-6-17-0-0 (30) DI = 2.53   CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 5-3-5-5-11   Speed = 8   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.56   Triads = 13-13-21 Whitmore DP = 2-8-11-0-1 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.45 Mare Profile = 10-1-1-6-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.81   Triads = 12-8-17 Firenze Fire DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-16-18 Warrior's Club DP = 4-2-4-1-1 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 7-6-5-6-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.09   Triads = 18-17-17 Seven Trumpets DP = 6-2-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 11-2-4-7-5   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.33   Triads = 17-13-16 X Y Jet DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 4-6-4-7-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.78   Triads = 14-17-17 Always Sunshine DP = 8-5-11-1-1 (26) DI = 2.47   CD = 0.69 Mare Profile = 7-6-2-10-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.92   Triads = 15-18-18 Mr. Crow DP = 4-6-4-0-0 (14) DI = 6.00   CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 7-4-4-9-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 15-17-17 Switzerland DP = 4-6-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 7-3-6-5-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-14-16

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