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Nov 3, 2018

FRIDAY'S BIAS

3 comments

 

 

 

 

Talk of the bias yesterday was that the track was playing fairly even however, the bias as far as inheritance was definitely catering to speed. The track was saturated prior and with the exception of the Juvenile winner, Game Winner, speed type horses were definitely hitting those top spots and the board all day. (fillies as well)

I am not sure if today will find that the track has dried out any more and I will be looking closely at the early races and throughout the day to see if today matches yesterday. The moisture on that track made a huge difference and if that holds up all day and into this race, everything gets flipped. Speed leaning horses like West Coast, Accelerate, McKinzie, Biscuits and Discreet Lover will have the advantage. If it is all dried out by 5:45 tonight, then the advantage will remain with Catholic Boy, Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn as it has in the past.

Friday's Dirt Winners:

Race 2 -

Jack Van Berg - 3.00

Captain Von Trapp - 3.80

Straight Shot - 3.44

Race 3

Casino Star - 3.36

M G Warrior 3.40

Shareholder Value - 7.00

Race 4

Improbable - 4.23

Trophy Chaser - 3.00

Distant Shore - 2.43

Race 7

Jaywalk - 3.80

Restless Rider - 3.40

Vibrance - 2.11

 

It would be very important to gauge what TYPE is hitting today to see if the track has dried out or dries out throughout today's races. There are 2 types of Bias and most will only look at the bias of running styles (lead, mid-pack, rear). The other type is speed inheritance vs stamina inheritance. Yesterday absolutely catered to speed inheritance which is opposite of what Churchill Downs Breeders races has produced in the past. If the track remains the same as yesterday, everything must get flipped.

 

I will try to update this post throughout the day today to see whether the track is producing the same as yesterday.

Nov 3, 2018Edited: Nov 3, 2018

Saturday:

 

Race 1 - Dirt 1 1/16th

Tiz Mischief - 3.00

Mo's Mojo - 3.00

Big Gemmy - 3.00

Skye Diamonds - 3.00

Day is starting out with all four ITM with 3.00 index. (Bottom of the speed spectrum.)

Nov 3, 2018Edited: Nov 3, 2018

Saturday:

 

Race 2 - Dirt 7f

Audible - 5.00

Honorable Treasure - 4.00

Principe Guilherme - 3.00

Cowboy Creed - 2.43

 

Top Three Speed horses 3.00 and up

Nov 3, 2018

Ok. We may be on track now if this race is any indication:

 

Race 5 - 8f - Dirt Mile

City of Light - 2.43

Seeking the Soul - 1.55

Bravazo - 2.75

Firenze Fire - 4.14

 

Very happy to see this. Possible that as each hour passes, the track becomes more normal. This is great to see at the 8f mark.

New Posts
  • November 3, 2018 Post Time: 4:16 pm Numbers are posted below in order of Chef High Speed Inheritance down to Chef High Stamina Inheritance. Mares are taken into account separately. There is a big difference between how these numbers read for colts as opposed to the fillies, therefore, I can not do a normal analysis here but I wanted to at least post the chefs and mares numbers for additional handicapping reference. I will not be betting this race (I never bet fillies!) but I do hope that any who do have great luck and much success! HIGH SPEED: Divine Miss Grey DP = 7-5-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.06 Mare Profile = 8-7-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-18-19 Monomoy Girl DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 9-3-5-6-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.24   Triads = 17-14-16 Fuhriously Kissed DP = 6-4-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.89 Mare Profile = 5-6-4-11-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.87   Triads = 15-21-19 Gambles Ghost DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40   CD = 0.82 Mare Profile = 9-4-2-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.09   Triads = 15-14-16 Champagne Problems DP = 5-11-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29   CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 8-4-2-8-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.85   Triads = 14-14-18 LOWER SPEED - EXACT 3.00: Midnight Bisou DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 6-2-6-6-4   Speed = 8   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.00   Triads = 14-14-16 Mopotism DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-3-7-6-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.12   Triads = 19-16-19 Wonder Gadot DP = 7-7-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 Mare Profile = 11-5-2-4-9   Speed = 16   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 18-11-15 Wow Cat DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 5-7-3-7-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.77   Triads = 15-17-18 My Miss Lilly DP = 4-10-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.65 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-3-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.14   Triads = 16-14-16 MIDDLE: Vale Dori (ARG) DP = 2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 6-4-9-10-2   Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.09   Triads = 19-23-21 Abel Tasman DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60 Mare Profile = 11-2-5-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.12   Triads = 18-12-18 Verve's Tale DP = 7-7-8-2-2 (26) DI = 2.25   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 7-5-2-8-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 14-15-16 STAMINA: Blue Prize (ARG) DP = 3-2-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 8-6-8-3-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.11   Triads = 22-17-19 Ivy Bell DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 4-3-5-6-11   Speed = 7   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.48   Triads = 12-14-22 Berned DP = 2-6-16-0-0 (24) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 4-8-3-7-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.86   Triads = 15-18-16 La Force (GER) DP = 0-1-4-3-0 (8) DI = 0.60   CD = -0.25 Mare Profile = 5-9-3-11-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-23-19
  • November 3, 2018 Post Time: 4:56 pm (Update to Post out soon)
  • November 3, 2018 Post Time: 2:46 Promises Fulfilled Chefs DP = 3-5-2-0-0 (10) DI = 9.00   CD = 1.10 Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 13-11-16 Imperial Hint DP = 2-2-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.75 Mare Profile = 4-4-6-9-6   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.67   Triads = 14-19-21 Limousine Liberal DP = 3-2-10-0-1 (16) DI = 1.67   CD = 0.38 Mare Profile = 9-1-5-8-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 15-14-19 Roy H DP = 6-2-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60   CD = 0.78 Mare Profile = 9-4-5-5-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.90   Triads = 18-14-20 Ransom The Moon DP = 7-6-17-0-0 (30) DI = 2.53   CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 5-3-5-5-11   Speed = 8   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.56   Triads = 13-13-21 Whitmore DP = 2-8-11-0-1 (22) DI = 2.38   CD = 0.45 Mare Profile = 10-1-1-6-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.81   Triads = 12-8-17 Firenze Fire DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.88   Triads = 15-16-18 Warrior's Club DP = 4-2-4-1-1 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 7-6-5-6-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.09   Triads = 18-17-17 Seven Trumpets DP = 6-2-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 11-2-4-7-5   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.33   Triads = 17-13-16 X Y Jet DP = 3-4-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.83 Mare Profile = 4-6-4-7-6   Speed = 10   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.78   Triads = 14-17-17 Always Sunshine DP = 8-5-11-1-1 (26) DI = 2.47   CD = 0.69 Mare Profile = 7-6-2-10-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.92   Triads = 15-18-18 Mr. Crow DP = 4-6-4-0-0 (14) DI = 6.00   CD = 1.00 Mare Profile = 7-4-4-9-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 15-17-17 Switzerland DP = 4-6-10-0-0 (20) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 7-3-6-5-5   Speed = 10   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-14-16

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