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Lisa111
Dash
Level 3
Oct 14, 2018
Edited: Oct 31, 2018

DIRT MILE

November 3, 2018

Post Time: 1:16 pm



Battle of Midway - 2017 Breeders Dirt Mile Winner

SPEED:


Firenze Fire

DP = 4-7-7-0-0 (18) DI = 4.14 CD = 0.83

Mare Profile = 6-4-5-7-6 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.88 Triads = 15-16-18


Seven Trumpets

DP = 6-2-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 11-2-4-7-5   Speed = 13   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.33   Triads = 17-13-16


Isotherm

DP = 2-0-2-0-0 (4) DI = 3.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Profile = 8-2-1-4-14   Speed = 10   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.58   Triads = 11-7-19


MIDDLE:


Awesome Slew

DP = 10-8-20-0-0 (38) DI = 2.80   CD = 0.74

Mare Profile = 6-5-3-7-10   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.67   Triads = 14-15-20


Bravazo

DP = 6-8-16-0-0 (30) DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-8-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.14 Triads = 15-14-16


City of Light

DP = 2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43 CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 7-4-2-7-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.74 Triads = 13-13-18


Catalina Cruiser

DP = 5-4-12-1-0 (22) DI = 2.14 CD = 0.59

Mare Profile = 9-7-1-8-9 Speed = 16 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.96 Triads = 17-16-18


Giant Expectations DP = 4-3-13-0-0 (20) DI = 2.08 CD = 0.55

Mare Profile = 12-5-3-3-10 Speed = 17 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.23 Triads = 20-11-16


STAMINA:


Warrior's Club

DP = 4-2-4-1-1 (12) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.58

Mare Profile = 7-6-5-6-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.09 Triads = 18-17-17


Trigger Warning

DP = 2-1-4-1-0 (8) DI = 1.67 CD = 0.50

Mare Profile = 3-1-8-9-6 Speed = 4 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.52 Triads = 12-18-23


Seeking the Soul

DP = 7-3-14-4-0 (28) DI = 1.55 CD = 0.46

Mare Profile = 8-4-4-5-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.96 Triads = 16-13-17


4 comments0 replies
AnnaK
Dash
Level 3
Oct 17, 2018

A serious Catalina Cruiser fan. But will have to do my homework, & watch races & consult my pedigree DI numbers 😜 . LOTS of homework for this race.

1
Lisa111
Dash
Level 3
Oct 17, 2018

This is one of my favorite races. Anna, I am with you with Catalina Cruiser. Before even putting the numbers up, I am loving Catalina Cruiser and Promises Fulfilled so far as the 2 out of 4 for the boxed Super. The numbers are very secondary for this particular race, they are usually all over the board because the entire field can run 8f - it is just a matter of who has displayed his inherited speed consistently and evenly over the mile distance. I'm wondering if Mind Your Biscuits will actually enter here instead of Classic. Does anyone know?


By the end of this weekend, all of the numbers and analysis will be posted for the 6 races. I will post the numbers for the Distaff but I won't be doing analysis on them. I'm not even going to attempt to handicap that race! The Classic, the Juvenile, the Dirt Mile and the Sprint are my main targets. I actually held my vacation days for Breeders Week which is where I plan to do the serious handicapping and posting OR if I feel ready and confident by that week I might just go on a road trip. A 10 hour road trip. Are you game Anna? I can meet you there!!

0
Lisa111
Dash
Level 3
Oct 31, 2018

I updated the numbers on this race. Not much of a reason to go in depth with a big analysis. The top 3 favorites look to be the top 3 for a reason. Odds are bad on the chalk but this race doesn't appear to be a handicapping headache. because of the odds, not much of a play here. I'll sit it out.

0
New Posts
  • Lisa111
    Level 3
    Dash
    Nov 3, 2018

    FRIDAY'S BIAS

    Discussion 
    Talk of the bias yesterday was that the track was playing fairly even however, the bias as far as inheritance was definitely catering to speed. The track was saturated prior and with the exception of the Juvenile winner, Game Winner, speed type horses were definitely hitting those top spots and the board all day. (fillies as well) I am not sure if today will find that the track has dried out any more and I will be looking closely at the early races and throughout the day to see if today matches yesterday. The moisture on that track made a huge difference and if that holds up all day and into this race, everything gets flipped. Speed leaning horses like West Coast, Accelerate, McKinzie, Biscuits and Discreet Lover will have the advantage. If it is all dried out by 5:45 tonight, then the advantage will remain with Catholic Boy, Thunder Snow, Mendelssohn as it has in the past. Friday's Dirt Winners: Race 2 - Jack Van Berg - 3.00 Captain Von Trapp - 3.80 Straight Shot - 3.44 Race 3 Casino Star - 3.36 M G Warrior 3.40 Shareholder Value - 7.00 Race 4 Improbable - 4.23 Trophy Chaser - 3.00 Distant Shore - 2.43 Race 7 Jaywalk - 3.80 Restless Rider - 3.40 Vibrance - 2.11 It would be very important to gauge what TYPE is hitting today to see if the track has dried out or dries out throughout today's races. There are 2 types of Bias and most will only look at the bias of running styles (lead, mid-pack, rear). The other type is speed inheritance vs stamina inheritance. Yesterday absolutely catered to speed inheritance which is opposite of what Churchill Downs Breeders races has produced in the past. If the track remains the same as yesterday, everything must get flipped. I will try to update this post throughout the day today to see whether the track is producing the same as yesterday.
  • Lisa111
    Level 3
    Dash
    Nov 2, 2018

    LONGINES DISTAFF - (updated)

    Discussion 
    November 3, 2018 Post Time: 4:16 pm Numbers are posted below in order of Chef High Speed Inheritance down to Chef High Stamina Inheritance. Mares are taken into account separately. There is a big difference between how these numbers read for colts as opposed to the fillies, therefore, I can not do a normal analysis here but I wanted to at least post the chefs and mares numbers for additional handicapping reference. I will not be betting this race (I never bet fillies!) but I do hope that any who do have great luck and much success! HIGH SPEED: Divine Miss Grey DP = 7-5-6-0-0 (18) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.06 Mare Profile = 8-7-2-9-8   Speed = 15   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-18-19 Monomoy Girl DP = 2-4-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.80 Mare Profile = 9-3-5-6-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.24   Triads = 17-14-16 Fuhriously Kissed DP = 6-4-8-0-0 (18) DI = 3.50   CD = 0.89 Mare Profile = 5-6-4-11-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.87   Triads = 15-21-19 Gambles Ghost DP = 6-6-10-0-0 (22) DI = 3.40   CD = 0.82 Mare Profile = 9-4-2-8-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.09   Triads = 15-14-16 Champagne Problems DP = 5-11-14-0-0 (30) DI = 3.29   CD = 0.70 Mare Profile = 8-4-2-8-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.85   Triads = 14-14-18 LOWER SPEED - EXACT 3.00: Midnight Bisou DP = 0-1-1-0-0 (2) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 6-2-6-6-4   Speed = 8   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.00   Triads = 14-14-16 Mopotism DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.67 Mare Profile = 9-3-7-6-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.12   Triads = 19-16-19 Wonder Gadot DP = 7-7-8-2-0 (24) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.79 Mare Profile = 11-5-2-4-9   Speed = 16   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.21   Triads = 18-11-15 Wow Cat DP = 4-5-9-0-0 (18) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.72 Mare Profile = 5-7-3-7-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.77   Triads = 15-17-18 My Miss Lilly DP = 4-10-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.65 Conduit Mare Profile = 9-4-3-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.14   Triads = 16-14-16 MIDDLE: Vale Dori (ARG) DP = 2-3-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 6-4-9-10-2   Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.09   Triads = 19-23-21 Abel Tasman DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60 Mare Profile = 11-2-5-5-8   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.12   Triads = 18-12-18 Verve's Tale DP = 7-7-8-2-2 (26) DI = 2.25   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 7-5-2-8-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 14-15-16 STAMINA: Blue Prize (ARG) DP = 3-2-6-1-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.58 Mare Profile = 8-6-8-3-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.11   Triads = 22-17-19 Ivy Bell DP = 2-2-8-0-0 (12) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.50 Mare Profile = 4-3-5-6-11   Speed = 7   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.48   Triads = 12-14-22 Berned DP = 2-6-16-0-0 (24) DI = 2.00   CD = 0.42 Mare Profile = 4-8-3-7-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.86   Triads = 15-18-16 La Force (GER) DP = 0-1-4-3-0 (8) DI = 0.60   CD = -0.25 Mare Profile = 5-9-3-11-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.92   Triads = 17-23-19
  • Lisa111
    Level 3
    Dash
    Nov 5, 2018

    LONGINES TURF

    Discussion 
    November 3, 2018 Post Time: 4:56 pm (Update to Post out soon)

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