2018-2019 Kentucky Derby Prep Season (19 races)

The analysis of the Derby Prep winners on this years road are based on my work combining the chefs dosage numbers along with the mares in order to formulate a colt's optimum distance and how that pertains to the 10f of the Kentucky Derby and to 12f of the Belmont Stakes. The conclusions  that I come to take Dr. Roman's numbers and combines them with the Reines-de-Course numbers and adds in historical outcomes.  Please scroll down to see those conclusions. 

Cairo Cat  Cairo Prince - La Belle Cat (Tale of the Cat)

Sept 15

Iroquois Stakes

Churchill Downs

1 1/16 Miles

Clear Fast

Points - 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Cairo Cat

2nd - Tight Ten

3rd - Pole Setter

4th - Tobacco Road

Chef Numbers: DP = 2-2-2-0-0 (6) DI = 5.00   CD = 1.00

Mare Numbers: 7-4-6-9-5   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.96   Triads = 17-19-20

First Prep right out of the gate and we may have secured a potential contender for the 10f Derby. Cairo Cat inherited 5x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs and he received a beautiful amount of stamina from his mares to balance everything out. His triads are perfect. They are loaded and they lean to stamina which perfectly offsets that 5.00 index. His sire, Cairo Prince was a 9f runner. He also had a wonderful set-up of stamina from his mares, however, Prince had a 7.00 chef index which watered down that stamina. The difference between a 7.00 index and a 5.00 index is massive in that the balance gets tilted to the extent that it is harder to sustain that much speed over the longer distance. Cairo Cat's configurations are very comparable to Audible from last year. And just like Audible, he appears that he wants to favor his mares on the front end and reserve the chefs speed on the back end. That style coupled with these configurations are the exact qualifications to be considered a player in the Derby. He will also be highly advantaged on a sloppy surface. This guy is a keeper. 

Game Winner  Candy Ride - Indyan Giving (A.P. Indy)

Sept 29

American Pharoah

Santa Anita

1 1/16 Mile

Clear Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Game Winner

2nd - Gunmetal Gray

3rd - Rowayton

4th - Jefe

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.55

Mare Numbers:  6-1-4-5-11   Speed = 7   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.55   Triads = 11-10-20

This is the type of profile where past performances need to be center stage when handicapping the Kentucky Derby as opposed to the numbers themselves. These numbers, historically speaking, are not the type that have much success in the Derby. The 2.33 index falls in the center of the balance. The triads from the mares are depicting serious inheritance in the stamina department. These are the numbers that crush the Belmont Stakes but generally do not connect in the Derby. As with most Candy Ride boys, they lean to stamina, however when you have one who connects with wins going shorter distances you must take notice. Gun Runner and Shared Belief as examples, winning at shorter distances goes against what their numbers depict. They out-ran their numbers and Game Winner appears to be on that same path. He will get even better as the distances go further and the short early wins that he has posted makes him standout this early in the game. Game Winner is a serious Belmont contender and should he win the Derby, he has a higher probability of grabbing another Triple Crown for Baffert because of his advantage with his breeding in the Belmont. This guy could easily be another who goes undefeated.

Complexity  Maclean's Music - Goldfield (Yes Its True)

Oct 7

Champagne Stakes

Belmont Park

1 Mile

Cloudy Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Complexity

2nd - Code of Honor

3rd - Call Paul

4th - Aurelius Maximus

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-3-4-0-0 (10) DI = 4.00   CD = 0.90

Mare Numbers:  DP = 6-9-1-7-6   Speed = 15   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.10   Triads = 16-17-14

This horse was the only speed guy with 7 other speedy peers on the field that was able to sustain his speed for the 8f distance in the Champagne stakes. He was arguably also the recipient of a bit of luck due to the only main stamina threat, Code of Honor, who gave him free reign on the lead due to a bad stumble. A perfect start by Code of Honor and the results most likely different in this particular prep.

 

As far as configurations for Complexity as it pertains to the 10f Derby - this guy looks to have no shot at carrying his speed that distance. The mare index of 1.10 is too high when combined with the chefs 4.00 index. Furthermore, the point spread between the mare speed/stamina balance is in the negative and the triads descend as the distances stretch out. Between the top and bottom, when combined, this guy is lucky if he can get to 9f comfortably. He is quite a fast 2 year and his breeding seems to be geared more to 8 to 8.5f. He could easily grab a  couple more short preps, but past that, there truly is no chance at 10f. 

Knicks Go Paynter - Kosmo's Buddy (Outflanker)

Oct 6

Breeders Futurity

Keeneland

1 1/16 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Knicks Go

2nd - Singleman

3rd - Standard Deviation

4th - Sombeyay

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-6-11-0-0 (20) DI = 2.64   CD = 0.60

Mare Numbers:  DP = = 8-3-4-10-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.15   Triads = 15-17-17

It is obvious by the 4 races under this guys belt that he thrives on the lead and does not enjoy looking at the back of a pack of horses when he runs. Unfortunately, he will not be guaranteed that coveted spot in his future races. This good looking guy will need a jockey who knows how to get him out front every time going forward. His set-up on top is very difficult for the Kentucky Derby. He is positioned in the center, very even but very nicely balanced when combined. Lacking in a high degree of inherited chef speed but his low .60 CD gives him a strong amount of stamina. The triads are also fairly average, however they are better than most and gives him another shot of stamina. This is the type that needs to be followed closely as the distances get longer and performances will be more important than numbers. The fact that a lead spot looks to be of most importance to his success, that aspect will need to be top priority when handicapping his future preps. Too early to tell which way his numbers will take him, however the probability that his set-up gives him a chance is the Derby is slim to none. Belmont may be a different story but his apparent preferred running style makes that a hard proposition as well.   

 
 
 
 
 

Game Winner Candy Ride - Indyan Giving (A.P. Indy)

Nov 2

Breeders Cup Juvenile

Churchill Downs

1 1/16 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 20 - 8 - 4 - 2

1st - Game Winner

2nd - Knicks Go

3rd - Signalman

4th - Mr. Money

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.55

Mare Numbers:  6-1-4-5-11   Speed = 7   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.55   Triads = 11-10-20

First analysis above with his win in the American Pharoah Stakes. Impressive wins coming from this Candy Ride son who has a set of serious 12f Belmont Stakes numbers. There isn't much more to add than what was said above other than Game Winner has yet to run at his optimum distance and yet he continues to dominate these shorter races. There is no doubt that these numbers are not what excels in the Derby for a win, nor are they set-up for wins on a sloppy track. He will fare better in Kentucky on a clean track but his advantage will still be low. Good Candy Ride sons who win short do not seem to care much about the lack of inherited speed that they are holding and plow right through them. There is a slight thought that the field he was pitted against in this particular race was not as loaded as it could have been. With the absence of what appeared to be his major competition in the Juvenile, Code of Honor, the trophy seemed to be already his prior to the race. As the distances go further, Game Winner should continue to improve but as far as any advantage in the 10f Kentucky Derby, he really has none. His race is the Belmont Stakes.

Signalman General Quarters  - Trip South (Trippi)

Nov 24

Kentucky Jockey Club

Churchill Downs

1 1/16

Cloudy - Sloppy (Sealed)

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Signalman

2nd - Plus Que Parfait

3rd - Limonite

4th -  King for a Day

Chef Numbers:  DP = 1-6-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.67

Mare Numbers:  DP = 5-8-2-7-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.87   Triads = 15-17-16

Signalman's numbers are very tricky. At first glance, the Chefs higher 3.80 index followed by the lower .67 index looks extremely promising. Those two sets of numbers coupled together are fantastic for high inheritance of speed with the "apparent" ability to sustain that speed further than normally would be found with a colt who also has a higher speed index. When adding in the mares, the speed gets heavily affected. It drops significantly. Unfortunately a horse enters the gate with both sets and the combination of both configurations balances Signalman to a more even and balanced set-up as opposed to enhancing the inherited speed. This is not necessarily bad but the Derby demands a high degree of inherited speed and the mares are affecting the seemingly higher speed gained from the sires. This guy is even cross the board and the mares index is somewhat lackluster, it is not high enough to throw more speed upon him, nor is it low enough to enhance the stamina. It is even and balanced. His fate in the Derby will be highly dependent on a faster pace because he looks to be able to run at a more sustained even pace than being able to switch his gears to fit the mood of the day. Good horse but lacks a bomb on both sides of the balance.

Maximus Mischief  Into Mischief - Reina Maria (SongandaPrayer)

Dec 1

Remsen Stakes

Aqueduct

1 1/8 Miles

Cloudy Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Into Mischief

2nd - Network Effect

3rd - Tax 

4th - Bourbon War

Chef Numbers:  DP = 1-1-0-0-0 (2) DI = Inf   CD = 1.50

Mare Numbers:  DP = 3-10-5-9-2   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.17   Triads = 18-24-16

This Into Mischief colt is fast mainly because of the 10 points gained in the Mare Intermediate slot of the profile. The mares 5 digit profile is laid out very nicely with the Intermediate and Solid numbers highest and the 5 in the Classic higher than the Brilliant. In an attempt not to nit-pick the horse or to downplay his win, there are a few items dotted in both configurations that may be a huge disadvantage in Kentucky. The first is the high Chef CD (1.50) on top of the higher Mare index (1.17). Because we are only dealing with ONE chef in the first 4 generations of Maximus' chart, Unbridled, his Chef numbers get thrown all the way over to speed leaning which affects everything. His point spread between the balance from the mares is in the negatives which is another major pitfall and finally, even though the triads are loaded they do dip down in the final high stamina slot. In the past the Remsen has not been known to be the best race for producing Derby winners (similar to the Woodward) so there leaves a bit to be desired here all the way around. We need to see how that 24 in the center slots holds up with regards to consistency and if he can pull from a few other higher end sires in his chart before passing final judgement.  

Improbable   City Zip - Rare Event (A.P. Indy)

Dec 8

Los Alamitos Futurity

Los Alamitos

1 1/16 Miles

Cloudy Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Improbable

2nd - Mucho Gusto

3rd - Extra Hope

4th -  Dueling

Chef Numbers:  DP = 12-9-13-0-0 (34) DI = 4.23   CD = 0.97

Mare Numbers:   DP = 6-6-4-7-7   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-17-18

Yes! Definite Yes! There are 4 reasons why Improbable will have a Derby gate holding a very strong advantage over many of his opponents at 10f. Number one is Baffert. Number two is that this guy has shown that he can run just as well at Churchill as he can on the oil-slick track at Los Alamitos. Either bias is of no concern. Third reason is his over-loaded chef profile which heavily spreads across from sprinting to classic (this is mainly due to the presence of AP Indy in his second generation). But the fourth reason is truly the icing that gives him a major advantage at 10f in the Derby. Even though extreme high numbers in the triads across the board are a strong indicator regardless of a speed leaning colt or a stamina leaning colt, when a profile set-up is stacked in the chef profile with a very high index, a lower number in the first speed slot of the triads is highly desirable. Too much inherited speed from both the top and bottom affects how long the horse can sustain his speed. The 16 in that first slot of the triads is perfect. Not too low, not too high. His triads step up going from speed leaning to stamina leaning. The higher chef index coupled with stamina leaning triads is exactly the set-up that balances everything out on either bias. The 34 points gained from his chefs say this guy is a keeper in all preps up to and including the Derby itself. His ability to conquer a variety of biased tracks is an absolute plus. A true player for the Kentucky Derby.    

 
 
 
 

Long Range Toddy Take Charge Indy - Pleasant Song (Unbridled's Song)

Dec 16

Springboard Mile

Remington Park

1 Mile

Clear - Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Long Range Toddy

2nd - Bankit

3rd - Dunph

4th - Tone Broke

Chef Numbers:  DP = 4-11-9-0-0 (24) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.79 

Mares Numbers: = 6-5-5-2-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-12-16

The one mile contest of the Springboard seems to be the perfect distance for this son of Take Charge Indy. This is the type of horse that will be hyped to the max because of his beautiful performance in this race coupled with his sire. He has great speed and he has a lower than normal CD that will enable him to carry that speed further than normal, however, his mares offer no major boost to his stamina. His speed vs stamina point spread is even and balanced which for the 10f Derby is not a good sign. His triads split and they are too low to add any punch of extra stamina. This is the type of horse who will see his way to that mile and an eighth mark due to the .79 CD but he will have no assistance from his mares to gather that extra 1/8th for the Derby. He is very similar to a Promises Fulfilled type. Bet him along the way to Churchill but if he grabs a gate for the Derby, this guy will be packing it in before the final turn. The bigger standout in this race was Dunph. He is not suited for the Derby either, however, take note of his name for the Belmont stakes - if this guy enters a gate in New York in June, he would be a real player in that race.

Mind Control Stay Thirsty - Feel That Fire (Lightnin N Thunder)

Jan 1

Jerome Stakes

Aqueduct

1 mile

Cloudy - Good

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Mind Control

2nd - Our Braintrust

3rd - Family Biz

4th - Gates of Dawn

Chef Numbers:  DP = 2-2-6-0-0 (10) DI = 2.33   CD = 0.60 

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-7-5-5-5   Speed = 14   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.30   Triads = 19-17-15

There is something very bothersome about the setup of both of these sets of numbers. It is definitely flipped which is not always bad but it usually occurs when the chefs are lopsided to either high speed index (over 3.00) or high stamina (under 2.00). His chefs index is average but his CD is low. His mares lean to speed which drags everything  over to the left. His chefs speed gets enhanced but his stamina suffers. It is flipped upside-down and it definitely leaves something drastically missing.   

Horses like Tapwrit and Creator had a mares triad configuration similar to Mind Control, however, Tapwrit's & Creator's chefs both leaned to speed and Mind Control is sitting in the center. MC actually gained more stamina than the two referenced but he gained less speed. For a win in the Derby, a large bomb of speed is important and MC did receive that from his mares but then it would need to be counteracted by a large bomb of stamina from his chefs. The CD is there but the index is not. In MC's case, his  configurations are backwards on the bottom and average on the top. Not a good sign. It seems very off-putting. His PP's will be everything because his dosage numbers are too staggered (and not in a good way) for Derby Day. He must truly gravitate to that .60 CD over everything else to even have a shot at that board.  Highly unlikely.

 

Gunmetal Gray  Exchange Rate - Classofsixtythree (Include)

Jan 5

Sham Stakes

Santa Anita

1 Mile

Cloudy - Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Gunmetal Gray

2nd - Sueno

3rd - Much Better

4th - Gray Magician

Chef Numbers:  DP = 4-7-11-0-0 (22) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.68

Mare Numbers:  DP = 4-5-7-8-4   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.87   Triads = 16-20-19

Analyzing the numbers strictly for the 10f Kentucky Derby and not for the shorter preps, it is important to understand that just looking at a Chefs index to see if it is 3.00 and over and looking at just the triads to see if it is loaded is not what dictates. It is how each set across both lines feed off the other. For the Derby, one must truly nit-pick each aspect along with style to see the dynamics. In Gunmetal's case, there is much that falls short for that particular race. A combo of high speed which is counteracted and balanced with high stamina wins the Derby. Gunmetal's stamina outweighs the speed a great deal even with that 3.00 index. The CD is low which bodes well for stamina but it does not enhance the speed. The mares index is also low and shows that he did not inherit enough in the speed department to compete along side the upper echelon category. There is a shot if a few sprinters affect the pace, especially since this guy is also a late runner, but it is his numbers that demand the fast pace even greater. He is also on the cusp for the Belmont as well, but not as heavy-hitting as some. He falls somewhere in the middle of the Derby and the Belmont. He sits on the outer edge of both but leans a bit closer to the Belmont Stakes. At the very least, his triads will stand out against many others on that Derby field so some consideration may be in order depending highly upon how many heavy hitters with the correct balance actually sit in the gates with him. His numbers are lacking but not out of the question.  

War of Will  War Front - Visions of Clarity (Sadlers Wells)

Jan 19

LeComte

Fairgrounds

1 Mile 70 Yards

Clear and Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - War of Will

2nd - Hog Creek Hustle

3rd - Manny Wah

4th - Wicked Indeed

Chef Numbers:  DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72   CD = 0.41

Mare Numbers:  DP = 4-7-4-12-2   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 15-23-18

Danzig (Intermediate & Classic) and Sadlers Wells (Classic & Solid) are both in the second generation of this chart and are responsible for the high amount of points shown in that profile. With two chefs as Grand-sires the probability that this guy will find his dominance spread across from 7f all the way up passed the Derby distance is extremely high. What glaringly stands out with this stamina horse is the 8 points shown in the chefs intermediate slot coupled with the 7 found in the mares intermediate slot. A great deal of speed in the 7f to 9f distances which is truly where they count when it comes to Derby preps. With a huge dominance in the Classic distance and the added bonus of 4 points in the Solid slot of his chefs, there is no worry whatsoever of that speed getting watered down. He can sustain from the top. When adding in the mares with this type of configuration it is all enhanced from both the speed end and the stamina end. The gorgeous .95 index from the mares counteracts and balances the lower chef index perfectly. A substantial amount of inbred speed gained from top and bottom to go along with all of that stamina will allow War of Will to sustain much longer than average. A fantastic prospect for the Derby. He should not be overlooked on the road to get there either, as everything he inherited spreads perfectly across the board. Cheers to the Breeder of this guy.

 
 
 
 

Gray Attempt - Graydar - Attempt To Name (Consolidator)

Jan 25

Smarty Jones

Oaklawn Park

1 Mile

Clear Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Gray Attempt

2nd - Long Range Toddy

3rd - Boldor

4th - Six Shooter

Chef Numbers -  DP = 3-4-3-0-0 (10) DI = 5.67   CD = 1.00 

Mare Numbers:  6-5-6-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.96   Triads = 17-17-18

 

Analysis: This set of numbers is a very good example of the importance of looking at each and every aspect as opposed to just an index and a set of triads. In this case, those two pieces - the chefs index and the mares triads are certainly on point, however, both sets of profiles fall short. With the chefs, his 3-4-3-0-0 dips down in the Classic slot which tilts the balance away from stamina. The mares profile 6-5-6-6-6 is spread evenly across the board which unfortunately does not give him that large bomb of stamina needed to go 10f easily. Because his triads look fairly half decent, this should allow Gray Attempt to get some added distance passed a sprinters range but the configurations of the profiles will hinder him when he attempts the Classic range. A wet track should see him gain a  bit more in distance but it will still fall short giving him no ease with 10f. As with all colts, they will run the 10f distance but his stamina will wind down as the other speed colts with the serious stamina continue on without him. He is definitely one who will thrive in the preps but past that for the Derby, he falls short.

Tax    Arch - Toll (Giants Causeway)

Feb 2

Withers

Aqueduct

1 1/8 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Tax 

2nd - Not That Brady

3rd - Our Braintrust

4th - Sir Winston

Chef Numbers:   DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56   CD = 0.31 

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-5-4-8-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.82   Triads = 16-17-20

Analysis: With Giants Causeway in his second Generation, backed up with Roberto and AP Indy in his third, and Hail to Reason and Alydar in his 4th, all 6 being pure Classic Chefs, it is easy to see that strong influence and dominance depicted in his 23 points in the Classic slot of his profile. The 7 points gained in the sprinting slot of his mares profile offer him some additional speed and his triads pour even more stamina on him.  These numbers are fairly good for a stamina horse at 10f , especially when he has a stalking style and runs close up with the pace. That combo does have an edge over his stamina peers and quite possible against the strong speed horses in the Derby. The only knock unfortunately is the .82 Index from the mares. A bit higher would have thrown more speed into the mix but we might be able to rely on Princequillo, Northern Dancer, and Seattle Slew to add their speed punch if the others closer up in generations don't water them down. Not a bad addition to the Derby as far as a possible contender for a board hit from the stamina category. 

Mucho Gusto  Mucho Macho Man - Itsagiantscauseway (Giants Causeway)

Feb 2 

Robert B. Lewis

Santa Anita

1 1/16 Miles

Rainy - Sloppy (Sealed)

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Mucho Gusto

2nd - Gunmetal Grey

3rd - Easy Shot

4th - Magnificent McCool

Chef Numbers:  DP = 2-0-10-0-0 (12) DI = 1.40   CD = 0.33

Mare Numbers:  DP = 6-4-11-9-3   Speed = 10   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.04   Triads = 21-24-23

Analysis: Out of the 3 Derby preps run this weekend, the very best as far as numbers are concerned, sits right here. Huge difference between Gusto and the other stamina guy, Tax, just above. Notice the Mares Index. Tax has a .82 and Gusto is holding a 1.04. Tax's index is average there without that strong punch (of either mare speed or stamina) but Gusto had his speed very enhanced to go along with that chef stamina. Additionally, there is no comparison between the triads. This guy is loaded and it absolutely added to his win on a sloppy track which is always beneficial to have for the Derby just in case. At this early stage of the game, these stamina numbers are the cream of the crop so far (as it pertains to the mares contribution) and they even rival those advantaged speed guys which is major. The low 2 points followed by a 0 in the chefs Brilliant and Intermediate slots keep his Classic Distance pure and at his optimum and the higher mare index gives him speed to compete. Excellent stamina contender for 10f .

Harvey Wallbanger  Congrats - Adorabell (Distorted Humor)

Feb 2

Holy Bull

Gulfstream Park

1 1/16 Miles

Cloudy - Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Harvey Wallbanger

2nd - Everfast

3rd - Maximus Mischief

4th - Epic Dreamer

Chefs Numbers:  DP = 8-6-12-0-0 (26) DI = 3.33   CD = 0.85  

Mare Numbers:  DP = 10-4-0-6-12   Speed = 14   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.80   Triads = 14-10-18

Analysis: As the past has always shown, longshots do grab their 15 minutes of fame along the way and there is a strong possibility that this guy will grab a few more minutes along the way because of his speed inheritance from the 8 in the Brilliant spot of his chefs profile coupled with the 10 from in the mares first spot, however, that is as far as it goes on his trek towards the Derby. His numbers are horrendous on the bottom for the 10f Derby along with that .85 CD coupled with a .80 Mare Index. Stagnant. Average. His mare profile is split in two which is another sign of struggle for the Derby. The 4 point spread between his speed and stamina inheritance from the mares gives him some extra stamina past a sprinter pedigree, however it will steal from his thunder as he attempts further distances. He is not stacked enough in speed inheritance to compete against the high indexed colts that will inevitably occupy a gate in the Derby. His triads say it all.

 
 
 
 

Well Defined  With Distinction - Fru Fru (Medaglia D'Oro)

Feb 9

Sam F. Davis

Tampa Bay Downs

1 1/16 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Well Defined

2nd - Kentucky Wildcat

3rd - So Alive

4th - Counter Offer

Chefs Numbers:  DP = 5-3-9-1-0 (18) DI = 2.27   CD = 0.67

Mares Numbers: DP = 6-7-5-4-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.14   Triads = 18-16-15

This is a good example of a colt who inherited a mid-range average set of numbers from his chefs and his mares numbers do nothing to enhance them as far as 10f in the Derby. Mid-range indexes (2.10 to 2.90) do not offer enough speed inheritance to compete alongside the higher echelon 3.50+ colts, nor do they carry enough stamina from those chefs to compete when the speed on the lead disintegrates. The mare numbers must be configured in such a way to enhance both and in this case, those numbers fall very short. The point spread between the speed and stamina is in the negatives which affects how far he can sustain. The mare index is high which bodes well going shorter and gives some life to the potential of the colt below 9f. His triads descend which offers no boost to his stamina range and this will not bode well in the Kentucky Derby. Types like this, even with stellar performances along the way, will always appear to be strong but with numbers like these, those stellar performances carry no weight for consideration in the Derby. 

Anothertwistafate  Scat Daddy - Imprecation (First Defence)

Feb 16

El Camino Real Derby

Golden Gate

1 1/8 Miles (S)

Cloudy Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Anothertwistafate

2nd - Kingly

3rd - More Ice

4th - Angelo's Pride

Chefs:  DP = 7-1-6-2-0 (16) DI = 2.20   CD = 0.81  

Mares:  DP= 7-6-2-6-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 15-14-15

Visually impressive to watch a colt wire the field traveling 9f in a Derby Prep race and to win that race by 7 lengths. This colt has perfectly balanced mare and chef numbers which means that his speed inheritance matches his stamina inheritance. The 2 in his chefs professional slot is the key to that balance, without it, he would have tilted left and thrown that balance off. With 14 combined points in brilliant speed, this guy may be on to something even with that 2.20 index. The only knock with this mid-range guy is that his impressive win came on All Weather Surface which generally always favors this type of setup. The romp could be deceiving here. The mares numbers leave something to be desired for the Derby, however, as with any colt in the 2.00+ range, his past performances mean much more when handicapping. His balance is a strong asset but the bias on the AWS does not always translate to Churchill, so he needs to be under a microscope going forward. He is a Catholic Boy type with a little less stamina inheritance from the mares. Maximum scrutiny is in order because of his mares numbers coupled with that chef index. The fact the he inherited so much combined speed gives him a reason to keep an eye on going forward. Potential is the best word at 10f.

Super Steed Supersaver - Totally Tucker (Elusive Quality)

Feb 18

Southwest

Oaklawn Park

1 1/16 Miles

Cloudy - Fast

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Super Steed

2nd - Sueno

3rd - Long Range Toddy

4th - Six Shooter

Chefs:  DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69 

Mares:  DP =  14-1-3-2-10   Speed = 15   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.28   Triads = 18-6-15 

Starting with all of the negatives first. The mares profile splits, book-ended at the far extremes and vacant in the center. Generally, the colt will gravitate to one of those ends and 95% of the time it leans him to the speed side and steals from the stamina side. His point spread is in the negatives which confirms the tilt. The mare index is very high which stamps the strong imbalance. The triads dip way too far down in the classic slot and they also lean away from stamina. They descend which is a negative for the Derby. His 3.00 index from the chefs is on the bottom end of the speed spectrum and his lower .69 CD gives him a bit of a jolt in the stamina department but it seems almost displaced. The chefs profile gives him a speed number of 8 points (3 in the brilliant plus 5 in the intermediate = 8) which is the same as the 8 in his Classic. This makes his optimum fall backwards as he will settle in between the two of them. This is truly not good for the Derby. 

Now the positives: His sire Supersaver won 3 races in his career. One of them happened to be the Kentucky Derby on a very sloppy track. His numbers were nothing to write home about either (although admittedly better than his son's). Sometimes luck, the stars, and the moon align and the rains come for a longshot whose breeding is far below par for the 10f Kentucky Derby. It's Super Steed's only hope.

Continue.

 
 

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