2018-2019 Kentucky Derby Championship Series

The analysis of the Derby Prep winners on this years road are based on my work combining the chefs dosage numbers along with the mares in order to formulate a colt's optimum distance and how that pertains the 10f of the Kentucky Derby and to 12f of the Belmont Stakes. The conclusions  that I come to take Dr. Roman's numbers and combines them with the Reines-de-Course numbers and adds in historical outcomes.  Please scroll down to see those conclusions. 

 

War of Will

Feb 16

Risen Star

Fair Grounds

1 1/16 Miles

Cloudy Fast

Points 50 - 20 - 10 - 5

1st - War of Will

2nd - Country House

3rd - Roiland

4th - Hog Creek Hustle

Chefs: DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72   CD = 0.41

Mares:  DP = 4-7-4-12-2   Speed = 11   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 15-23-18

Go To First Analysis

Will add a few things... The standout point with regard to this performance is that all 3 of the lead colts (War of Will, Dunph and Gun It) all have configurations that do not spell out a lead type colt. Not one of them have that high speed inheritance that would see their form gun for the top. That form is out of the realm for their inheritance and would cause them to falter because of it. Out of the three, War of Will continued on whereas the other two faded. That spells stand-out.  With the low CD of .41, War of Will can and will sustain the 10f of the Derby and he is a major threat due to the fact that as a stamina guy he positions himself in the absolute best spot - he will be up there running with the speed guys. Some of those speed guys will fade and some who are holding the right mare stamina will continue with him. This gives him a major edge. The way his numbers lay out coupled with his style, reminds me a great deal of Gun Runner. That is major company to be aligned with. Between the stamina hopefuls at this point, it is all about him and Mucho Gusto. This year presents a very easy choice in handicapping the stamina category. Those two are it. Mucho Gusto has the very best sets of stamina numbers and War of Will has the style coupled with the numbers that will allow him to sustain it. It is nice when it comes easy!

War Front - Visions of Clarity (Sadlers Wells)

Code of Honor

March 2

Fountain of Youth

Gulfstream Park

1 1/16 Miles

Clear and Fast

Points 50 - 20 - 10 - 5

1st - Code of Honor

2nd - Bourbon War

3rd - Vekoma

4th - Hidden Scroll

Chef Numbers: DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76   CD = 0.00

Mare Numbers: DP =  2-10-2-13-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.64   Triads = 14-25-20

Click for Full Analysis

The fact that this guy won the FOY at Gulfstream Park with his breeding confirms that he is one special and talented horse. His numbers, which are usually reserved for European runners, are not suitable for that type of track. These are numbers which thrive on  turf, AWS, or if on dirt, tracks like Saratoga or Aqueduct. This Noble Mission son has the very best set of numbers out of every single Derby hopeful out there and his breeding is unmatched. Being 101% Stamina, the ability to wire and win a 6f maiden race and to beat a field littered with Speed on the Gulfstream surface is a testament to his impeccable bloodlines. He was born with class and these are the types usually reserved for Ascot or Dubai, not Gulfstream. This horse is one of the best bred three year olds in the country so far and his stamina numbers are unmatched. They surpass even Thunder Snow who stood out long ago because of that breeding. He will be pitted against War of Will and Mucho Gusto. They are the 3 top stamina guys right now and all 3 have a serious shot at the roses. CoH will retain an advantage at 10f at Churchill, something he did not have in the FoY, which means his performance capability will skyrocket. With the lack of speed contenders with points so far, this guy is a top contender to win the Kentucky Derby in the stamina department. His perfectly balanced Classic CD gives him the edge, his mare numbers are magnificent and he has proven his adaptability to different surface bias.  Mr. Farrish out-did himself here. This beast is a star and he is a major threat to all of Baffert's big guns. Code of Honor is a classic vintage specimen reserved for the Old Country and we are surely blessed to have him right here in Kentucky. Fans of this guy should start praying for a clear and clean track for Derby Day because Code of Honor will hold on to that advantage and he will be in the mix down that lane. Go get'em Shug!

Noble Mission - Reunited (Dixie Union)

Tacitus

March 9

Tampa Bay Derby

Tampa Bay Downs

1 1/16 Miles

Cloudy - Fast

Points 50 - 20 - 10 - 5

1st - Tacitus

2nd - Outshine

3rd - Win Win Win

4th - Zenden

Chef Numbers:   DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31   CD = 0.75

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-6-3-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 16-16-16

The chefs profile is laid out very nicely. He received more inbred speed than both his half brothers Tapwrit and Creator which bodes better for him for the Derby. I have mixed feeling when it comes to the mares. The speed and stamina gained from those mares are both balanced and even, and the triads (while even across the board) are a bit under par in terms of the necessary speed needed for the Derby itself. The chefs could help in this regard and with the mares index being higher than 1.00, it may not be a far stretch. This is the type that is borderline for a successful run. The 3.31 index does depict a speed guy, but it is on the lower end and the triads aren't giving a punch one way or the other. It all seems a bit stagnant and uninspiring for the Kentucky Derby. That race generally caters to a colt who is a packing a wicked punch on either side of the balance (be is extreme speed inheritance or extreme stamina inheritance) and with these numbers being "safe" that are not bad, however they are not standing out in any way. Because of the breeding, this guy needs to be pitted against the final field, if there are too many speedsters without the required mare stamina entered, then he may need to be looked at as one who can sustain his speed but a bit slower than some. Having an even balance in not always a bad thing if there are too many speedsters in the mix. Because he ran this prep in record time, he needs to be kept with those 3.00+ guys in that top category for now.  The distance capability should be just fine but the numbers lack in certain areas to be overly excited. 

Tapit - Close Hatches (First Defence)

Haikal

March 9

Gotham

Aqueduct

1 Mile

Clear - Fast

Points 50 - 20 - 10 - 5

1st - Haikal

2nd - Mind Control

3rd - Instagrand

4th - Much Better

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-2-3-9-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.79   Triads = 12-14-18

I love these numbers for the Belmont Stakes. The speed is lacking a great deal for the Derby, especially if it rains. This Gotham prep was handed to Haikal on a silver platter by Bob Baffert, Mike Smith and Much Better. They wanted to wire the field in true Baffert form with yet another who they pushed to run in the same manner with which they have done with 90% of their horses. Trying for the clone of Bodemeister over and over. They got burned. So now, Haikal has his stall in the Derby but he has no advantage when he gets there. Every number across both lines point to top notch Belmont Stakes numbers and they lack all the way around for the Derby. The stamina portion from both the lower CD and the mares point spread is extremely high and bodes well for cruising the backstretch and letting loose late in the race. Many times, this type will grab a piece of the bottom but rarely grabs the roses. His numbers are configured very well for sustaining his speed a far distance, but his speed inheritance is not up to par with most. The stamina gobbles up his speed in his numbers which also shows in his form. That form does not do well in the Derby.  The triads say it all. This guy is best kept for the Belmont with a boxed tri/super consisting of him, Game Winner & Country House. The only thing to watch for is if they bring him forward in his next race before Derby Day. If his position is closer to mid-pack then there may be something to grab onto because he definitely has the stamina to continue on.

Daaher - Sablah (Distorted Humor)

 
 
 

Somelikeithotbrown

March 9

Jeff Ruby Stakes

Turfway Park

1 1/18 Miles

Showery - Fast

Points 20 - 8 - 4 - 2

1st - Somelikeithotbrown

2nd - Dynamic Racer

3rd - Moonster

4th - Five Star General

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-8-13-0-0 (24) DI = 2.69   CD = 0.58 

Mare Numbers:    DP = 7-8-1-9-7   Speed = 15   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.96   Triads = 16-18-17

Here's another colt winning a Derby prep that has numbers that leave a bit to be desired when it comes to the dynamics of the Derby race. His chef profile itself is very nice, but the index is average, the CD is extremely low, the mares numbers are split between the two wings, the point-spread is average and the triads are somewhat okay. When the two sets are combined they are actually much better than others within that average 2.10 to 2.90 category. Stamina from the top and the strong possibility that the speed end of the mares will be enhanced because they appear that they will water down the stamina side. The mare index is high, so it will tend to take over. These two sets appear to balance out nicely, however a balanced set of numbers is not grand enough for the Derby.  It is not the matter of not having the stamina to compete at 10f in the Derby, it is a matter of not having the SPEED to compete at 10f in the Derby. The fact that he won the way he did on Synthetic also gives pause for having the jets to succeed with 20 at Churchill . This inheritance generally does not do well in Kentucky in May, but the stamina is there from his chefs so the distance is okay. It is a matter of projected time for the big race to see if he is board material. It is always wise to consider a longshot in the mid-range group who has the stamina to go 10f but there may be better candidates to look at in that category. 

                       

Big Brown - Marilyn Monroan (Tapit)

Long Range Toddy

March 16

Rebel (Div I)

Oaklawn Park

1 1/16

Clear - Fast

Points 37.5 - 15 - 7.5 - 3.75

1st - Long Range Toddy

2nd - Improbable

3rd - Galilean

4th - Extra Hope

Chef Numbers:  DP =  4-11-9-0-0 (24) DI = 4.33   CD = 0.79

Mare Numbers:  DP = 6-5-5-2-9   Speed = 11   Stamina = 11   Index = 0.88   Triads = 16-12-16

Go To First Analysis

This is the second prep win for this son of Take Charge Indy. As stated in the first analysis, this boy received over 4x the inherited speed over stamina from his chefs which represents an upfront quick runner. The two major speed demons running one and two, Toddy (4.33) and Improbable (4.23) is par for the course at the 1 1/16th distance.  Extra Hope (7.00) with his nice set of triads had no excuse and Galilean with a noble effort. Toddy does have a nice CD sitting next to that 4.33 index which pushes his sustaining ability to 9 to 9.5f , however, with no major boost of stamina from his mares, the 10f will be daunting. Most important here is the fact that so far, the Derby list of probables is highly lacking in speed types to date, which puts Toddy in a somewhat better position than he would otherwise. Most all horses will run the 10f, some faster, some slower, some with ease and some will struggle at a certain point. With the configuration of the triads, this guy will struggle with that last 1/8th, however he will do it if his jockey has any say. Since his mare index is a lower .88, the struggle is not out of the question due to the lack of speed competitors. The importance of pitting any and all speed types against each other is paramount, especially for this guy. His advantage will be much higher and his struggle with the last 1/8th will be easier on a sloppy track but due to the 9 found in his Classic slot within the chefs profile, coupled with the 12 found in his Middle slot of the triads, he will go into the Derby with zero advantage. He needs rain, he needs a fantastic position and he needs luck to get to that finish line first above the several stamina horses who run up with the lead. He will be up against it. 

Take Charge Indy - Pleasant Song (Unbridleds Song)

Omaha Beach

March 16

Rebel Stakes - Div II

Oaklawn Park

1 1/16 Miles

Clear - Fast

Points 37.5 - 15 - 7.5 - 3.75

1st - Omaha Beach

2nd - Game Winner

3rd - Market King

4th - Gun Metal Gray

Chef Numbers:  DP = 6-5-13-0-0 (24) DI = 2.69   CD = 0.71

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-4-6-6-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.20   Triads = 17-16-16

Generally, most all higher end 2.00 mid range colts will not find much success in the Derby however a few things stand-out with this colt which puts him in a much better position than most in this category. It is not out of the question that a mid-range colt will grab a piece of the board and there must be something extra with these types to grab onto. There are 2 things here that may give him some promise as a good longshot average index colt. The first is that mare index. 1.20. This index is high for the mares which represents more speed dominance. Since his Chefs are dominant in the classic distance and his mares are dominant in short brilliant speed, his ability to carry that mare speed rises a great deal. On a clean track this will be to his advantage. If this guy had a chef index above 3.20, he may struggle at the 10f, but since it drops to 2.69, the balance gets him there. His mare profile is not split which is also a good sign, it is rather balanced at the appropriate distance. The second stand-out point is the lack of higher end speed index horses which is a god-send for these mid range colts who never have an advantage because of them. Omaha Beach can sustain his distance the 10f and because of the 1.20 mare index, his speed capability and inheritance gives him a better shot in this particular category. This guy is a player in the Derby but the final verdict rests solely upon the speed entrants the day of. (Also of note, the higher mare index puts a damper on this mid-range guy in the Belmont. It can't go both ways with this type of mare configuration.) 

War Front - Charming (Seeking the Gold)

By My Standards

March 23

Louisiana Derby

Fair Grounds

1 1/8 Miles

Clear - Fast

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - By My Standards

2nd - Spinoff

3rd - Sueno

4th - Country House

Chef Numbers:   DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63

Mare Numbers:  DP = 6-6-7-6-3   Speed = 12   Stamina = 9   Index = 1.32   Triads = 19-19-16

The CD associated with his Chefs is extremely nice. That low .63 number bodes well for some added distance capability with his 3.00 chef index. His speed is coming directly from his mares higher 1.32 index. The speed/stamina point spread is in the negatives which will make this colt have to rely solely on his chefs for the stamina to sustain that mare speed. Since the CD is so favorable, this idea is not out of the question as far as being a contender for an underneath spot, but the numbers are completely lacking for a win in the Kentucky Derby. These types of numbers are generally reserved for bottom of the board hits (if that). It would seem that as the distances go further, he will be able to pick it up to a point because of the high speed influence coming from his mares, but past that 9.5f mark with a full field of 20, the higher stamina-bred horses will truly take advantage of him around that final turn. He will not be able to go on with them as his speed will most likely get the better of him. Can he hold on for a piece? Maybe. But that is a matter left only to the handicapper as to how much he wants to overload his 3 and 4 spots on his Super. The two 19's in the first slots of his triads do give him a shot in those spots but the 16 in that last spot will make it very difficult to see him to the wire first.

Goldencents - A Jealous Woman (Muqtarib)

 
 
 
 
 

Cutting Humor

March 24

Sunland Derby

1 1/8 Miles

Clear - Fast

Points 50 - 20 - 10 - 5

1st - Cutting Humor

2nd - Anothertwistafate

3rd - Mucho Gusto

4th - Wicked Indeed

Chef Numbers:  DP = 3-7-18-0-0 (28) DI = 2.11   CD = 0.46

Mare:  DP = 10-4-2-6-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 14   Index = 1.08   Triads = 16-12-16

There is something awkward about these configurations. The Chefs profile itself is very nice and that type of set-up puts a great deal of speed directly next to a dominate Classic capability. The 2.11 index is definitely the best spot if a colt falls into that 2.00 to 2.90 category. The CD is very low which truly shows the distance ability at the Classic spot. The chefs numbers are configured very well. His mares configurations in the profile itself and in those triads are terrible for the Derby, but the Mare Index is on point. This is why there is awkwardness here. The 1.08 mare index is very good for added speed but that profile shifts in the wrong direction. Dominant in the short early Brilliant slot and it descends across going towards stamina with a negative 2 in the Professional slot. It's not good enough for the 10f Derby. But the 2.11 chef index above the 1.08 mare index is actually quite nice. This is the type of set-up that I would tend to say to run away from for a superfecta spot, however, since there is a lack of "perfect" speed contenders this late in the game, he would need to be pitted against the 2.00 category first before tossing. This particular year has produced an array of mid-range colts who have outfoxed their speed opponents. Could this happen in the Derby? If things don't shake up soon, not one of the mid-range colts can be off the table yet. With the set-up of those triads, keeping him once the field is set is highly unlikely. He will be pitted against  the other mid-range contenders which may include the guy he beat by a neck in this prep. At 10f, Anothertwistfate would not witness that scenario again.

First Samurai - Pun (Pulpit)

Plus Que Parfait

March 30

UAE Derby

Meydan Racecourse

1 3/16 Miles

Clear nd Fast

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - Plus Que Parfait

2nd - Gray Magician

3rd - Manguzi

4th - Derma Louvre

Chef Numbers:  DP = 2-9-15-0-0 (26) DI = 2.47   CD = 0.50

Mare Numbers:  DP = 4-2-6-8-7   Speed = 6   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.57   Triads = 12-16-21

This guy is holding a serious amount of stamina from those mares. Seems absolutely fitting that the winner of the UAE Derby overseas would be packing that amount of stamina inheritance and had to travel thousands of miles to showcase it. It also seems fitting that this type of overseas winner coming from our country would turn out to be a top notch Belmont stakes contender with that inheritance. It is perfect and stands out extremely well alongside Game Winner and Country House. The unfortunate circumstances that surround the trip abroad may affect him if he should find himself a gate in the Belmont but there is no mistaking his dominate configurations for that race. Both the travel and the configurations of his inheritance do not bode well for the Kentucky Derby as is generally the case from winners overseas. His point spread from those mares is a large 9 points and the 12 found in the first slot of his triads put a huge hamper on his quest to win the Derby. Having that mid-range chef index puts a complete dark cloud over his head as well. Every point surrounding this colt screams for his connections to skip the Derby, rest the colt up and train towards the Belmont but that will never happen. No matter how obvious this horse's fate is with regards to the Triple Crown, having just secured 100 points for a coveted gate in the Kentucky Derby is all the connections will see. It is a shame but this colt's best shot at grabbing a race in the 2019 Triple Crown series is in the Belmont Stakes and his run in the Derby may hinder that advantage. His numbers are just not good for the Derby and adding in the travel to and from Dubai puts a stamp on it. This colts time comes after the Derby and well into the future. His mare numbers are magnificent.

Point of Entry - Belvedera (Awesome Again)

Maximum Security

March 30

Florida Derby

Gulfstream Park

1 1/8 Miles

Clear and Fast

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - Maximum Security

2nd - Bodexpress

3rd - Code of Honor

4th - Bourbon War

Chef Numbers:  DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.86

Mare Numbers:  DP = 9-3-3-6-10   Speed = 12   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.83   Triads = 15-12-19

This set-up is right on the border. There are a few points that make his combinations worthy for consideration for a superfecta spot. The first being the lack of speed contenders above the 3.00 mark. His .86 CD is average, it sits on the border, which means there isnt a heavy hit of stamina from those chefs but it isnt leaning him away from his speed either. Its more centered and even. The set-up of the chefs 5 digit profile itself does lean him closer to the Classic slot so with that 3.00 index he would be considered a bottom of the spectrum speed horse who is carrying more stamina than those above him. The mares 4 point spread leaning to stamina is great for him. The mare index mimics the chefs, where it is even and balanced. Sometimes this is good and sometimes it is dreadful. It depends on the bias of the track and it also depends upon the amount of speed demons with no chance at carrying that speed 10f. He exceeds them. His triads are what is keeping him on the border. The middle 12 hurts but the 19 is fantastic. Since he travels on the lead and has never tasted defeat, this horse must be kept as a good prospect for a top board hit at this early stage. It appears that the stamina is with him and he likes the lead. With the strong possibility that others will find their way to passing him down the stretch, his stamina inheritance will not see him floating backwards on his own. He appears that he has the inheritance to continue along past that final turn. His fate on that board depends on how many late runners come charging. He will continue at a more even pace while others will begin to fly. This guy has a shot to see his number in one of the top spots. He must be kept as a good 3.00 index colt. (So far.)   

New Years Day - Lil Indy (Anasheed)

Tacitus

April 6

Wood Memorial

Aqueduct

1 1/8 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - Tacitus

2nd - Tax

3rd - Haikal

4th - Math Wizard

Chef Numbers:  DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31   CD = 0.75

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-6-3-7-6   Speed = 13   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.05   Triads = 16-16-16

See First Analysis from Tampa Bay Derby

Will add a few things:

With a Chef Index at 3.31 and a Mare Index at 1.05, it is easy to see where all of that speed is coming from for this guy to win his races at 9f and under. When his Brilliant numbers from both sides are added together, (6+7) they combine to a large 13 points and when the Intermediate is combined (10+6) it flies even higher to 16 points. That is alot of speed from 4f up to 9f. The triads keep everything even and balanced across the spectrum from the mares which gives him the ability to cruise that final 1/8th, but it does not appear that the "cruising" will be at the heights of some of the bigger players. His numbers do look like board hit numbers but they lack in certain areas (the triads to be exact) to be confident that this type of configuration could see him prevail for a win. He should be able to go the distance and since there are a few in the "Speed Category" without the required stamina to go with him he has the ability to be in the top tier ten. It is just a matter now of how fast that pace will be and how many late running stamina guys come charging at him. He must pitted against the other speed contenders before final judgement.

Tapit - Close Hatches (First Defence)

 
 
 
 

Vekoma

April 6

Blue Grass Stakes

Keeneland

1 1/8 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - Vekoma

2nd - Win Win Win

3rd - Signalman

4th - Somelikeithotbrown

Chef Numbers:  DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56   CD = 0.69

Mare Numbers: DP = 4-3-7-5-8   Speed = 7   Stamina = 13   Index = 0.64   Triads = 14-15-20

These numbers do not constitute winning the roses in the Kentucky Derby. He has a great deal of disadvantage coming from both the chefs with that 2.56 mid-range index and also from the configuration of the triads from the mares. With the way the set-up is with those triads, he absolutely positively has the distance capability to run 10f comfortably and he would be able to run wide if need be and still retain his ease with the distance. Since this edition of the Derby has produced a far greater amount of entries who can also go this distance, the most important aspect will be the displayed SPEED they all have shown to date. Out of the 3 preps run on April 6th, Vekoma posted the fastest 9f time at 1:50.93, beating the times of both Roadster and Tacitus at the same distance. The Keeneland track was running very fast which may have aided him but the point is that he received the lowest Equibase figure out of the bunch so it is important to always look at the charts to see how the race actually unfolded. Since he is a mid-range colt, it will be imperative to pit him against the others in that category before passing final judgement. Only 4 will hit that superfecta board, so all of the colts with the 10f capability need to be assessed together at the same at time at this point.

Candy Ride - Mona De Momma (Speightstown)

Roadster

April 6

Santa Anita Derby

Santa Anita

1 1/8 Miles

Clear Fast

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - Roadster

2nd - Game Winner

3rd - Instagrand

4th - Nolo Contesto

Chef Numbers:  DP = 6-2-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60   CD = 0.78

Mare Numbers:  DP = 9-5-1-6-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.96   Triads = 15-12-16

Strictly looking at the numbers as if they belonged to any 3 year old out there, my analysis is as follows: These numbers, both top, bottom, forwards and backwards are horrendous for the Kentucky Derby. The immediate response when looking at them is simply to say, "this horse has absolutely, positively, without a shadow of a doubt, no chance whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby." The chefs stamina gets watered down, the mares triads are nowhere near where they need to be, the speed and stamina wings of the mares are completely split in two. Just looking at the numbers, they depict a 9 to 9.3f horse. His higher end mid-range index puts a stamp on the entire set-up as being sub-par for the race of the roses. Here's the kicker... this entire analysis must be thrown in the trash. It means absolutely nothing. It holds no weight and needs not even be written. For the Derby, one must spend their money and add in this particular colt to their superfecta line-up completely across the board. Basically, you are damned if you do and you are damned if you don't. Baffert horses do not follow their numbers.

Quality Road - Ghost Dancing (Silver Ghost)

Owendale

April 13

Lexington

Keeneland

1 1/16 Miles

Conditions

Points 20 - 8 - 4 - 1

1st - Owendale

2nd - Anothertwistafate

3rd - Sueno

4th - Knicks Go 

Chef Numbers:  DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.63

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-7-4-5-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.00   Triads = 18-16-17

Not enough points to make it onto the Derby Field after his gallant win today. 

Into Mischief - Aspen Light (Bernardini)

Omaha Beach

April 13

Arkansas Derby

Oaklawn Park

1 1/8 Miles

Showery - Sloppy 

Points 100 - 40 - 20 - 10

1st - Omaha Beach

2nd - Improbable

3rd - Country House

4th - Laughing Fox

Chef Numbers:  DP = 6-5-13-0-0 (24) DI = 2.69   CD = 0.71

Mare Numbers:  DP = 7-4-6-6-4   Speed = 11   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.20   Triads = 17-16-16

Go to First Analysis from the Rebel

Final Analysis found on the 2019 Kentucky Derby Analysis blog article.

War Front - Charming (Seeking the Gold)

 

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