2018-2019 Kentucky Derby 

Japan Road (4 races)

Make Happy  Square Eddie - Silar Rules (Ten Most Wanted)

Nov 24

Cattleya Sho

Tokyo Racecourse

1 mi

Conditions

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Make Happy

2nd - Kingen

3rd - Johann

4th -  Romatico

Chef Numbers:  5-4-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.88

Mare Numbers:  5-4-4-13-3   Speed = 9   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.78   Triads = 13-21-20

California Bred Filly beats the boys overseas to secure points for the Kentucky Derby, however unlikely to choose this race over the Oaks if she comes to the States. The set-up of her numbers rivals colts like Good Magic, Vino Rosso and Magnum Moon from last year. High inheritance of speed from the chefs and overloaded in stamina from the mares. These types of numbers are very iffy for the Derby in that sometimes the high amount of inbred stamina takes over the speed when trying to keep pace with extreme speed on the lead, especially on a sloppy track. Being a filly though, the numbers do not always jive with how they are read with a colt however if just taken on the surface in terms of the Oaks race, this filly rivals the best we have here. 

Nova Lenda  Daiwa Major - Mon Petit Coeur (Kurofune)

Dec 19

Zen-Nippon Nisal Yushun

Kawasaki Racecourse

1 Mile

Conditions

Points 20 - 8 - 4 - 2 

1st - Nova Lenda 

2nd - Derma Louvre

3rd - Gal Vihara

4th - Make Happy

Chef Numbers:  DP = 4-0-6-0-0 (10)  DI = 2.33  CD = .80  

Mare Numbers:  DP = 5-4-4-13-2  Speed = 9  Stamina = 15  Index = .86  Triads = 13-21-19 

It does not appear that these these numbers are anywhere near desirable for the Kentucky Derby. The speed inheritance is severely lacking and the .80 CD from the sires is too average above that .86 of the Mares Index. It is too centered to have any kind of prayer in beating the speed of our guys on this side of the world at 10f. He showed nice speed in this race while up there with the pace but as it compares to our speed demons who have the mare stamina to sustain is too much to even consider here. The 2.33 Chef index is completely incorrect for the Churchill race as well. He appears to have inherited a great deal of stamina which does affect any speed he inherited. The 0 in the Intermediate spot does keep his speed from being watered down, however, the extra speed inheritance from the mares disintegrates. No match for America.

Oval Ace   Henny Hughes - Abbracio  (Grass Wonder)

Feb 17

Hyacinth

Tokyo Racecourse

1 Mile

Conditions

Points 30 - 12 - 6 - 3

1st - Oval Ace

2nd - Weitblick

3rd - Derma Louvre

4th - Master Fencer

Chefs:  DP = 0-1-4-1-0 (6) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.00

Mares: DP = 7-6-4-7-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.26   Triads = 17-17-15

Great example of a well-balanced set of numbers that combine harmoniously. Chefs are responsible for a great deal of his stamina inheritance, while his mares are responsible for all of his brilliant speed inheritance. The numbers are very nicely arranged, especially given that his chefs profile is very sparse but configured very nicely. Unfortunately though, his beautiful sets do not translate into the Kentucky Derby mainly due to the lack of serious speed required from both sets. Add to that the overseas factor and should this guy take the trip, he won't find it easy to keep pace with that lack of speed. On a side note, the second place finisher, Weitblick, is packing the Derby numbers just like his half-brother did as well, the JRA Champion Dirt Horse - Le Vent Se Leve.

Der Flug Behkabad - Pai Guniang, (French Deputy)

March 31

Fukuyru

Nakayama

1 1/8 Mile

Clear Fast

Points 40 - 16 - 8 - 4

1st - Der Flug

2nd - Master Fencer

3rd - Rein Carina

4th - Black Warrior

Chef Numbers:  DP = 1-2-12-1-0 (16) DI = 1.29   CD = 0.19

Mare Numbers:  DP = 5-5-3-11-4   Speed = 10   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.82   Triads = 13-19-18

This colt won the Fukuyru, however he will not be traveling to Kentucky to participate. Der Flug (40 points), Oval Ace (30) and Nova Lenda (20) all declined the invitation, however Master Fencer who placed 4th in the Road to the Roses with his 19 points will be in attendance. 

Master Fencer -

Chefs: DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50   CD = 0.64

Mares: DP 7-5-2-8-6   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.95   Triads = 14-15-16

Unfortunately, this sweet little guy from overseas has absolutely no chance in the Derby.

 
 
 
 

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