2018-2019 Kentucky Derby 

European Road (7 races)

Mohawk  Galileo and Empowering (Encosta De Lago)

Sept 29

Juddmonte Royal Lodge

Newmarket (GB)

1 Mile (T)

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Mohawk

2nd - Sydney Opera House

3rd - Cape of Good Hope

4th - Victory Command

Chef Numbers:  DP = 5-0-17-12-0 (34) DI = 0.66   CD = -0.06

Mare Numbers:  4-9-1-8-10   Speed = 13   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.62   Triads = 14-18-19

 

Aiden O'Brien has a seriously well bred son of Galileo in his barn who won the first European Derby prep race on turf. This guy has a chefs profile that is out of control gorgeous and along with it a very high stamina index and a CD where the horse can run for days. If this guy wants to take a page from Mendelssohn and try his feet on dirt, chances are his mares will allow it. Very nice speed inheritance in the Intermediate category and even more stamina to sustain it. This guy has a very similar set-up to Code of Honor who is the grandson of Galileo. Code of Honor loves the dirt, so it may not be a stretch for Mohawk to enjoy it as well. The breeding and the numbers right here are top notch and it will be interesting to see how Code of Honor and his European cousin fare along the Derby Trail. For in depth numbers analysis, refer to Code of Honor blog article. Same applies because the speed/stamina balance is the same.

Japan Galileo - Shastye (Danehill)

Sept 30

Juddmonte Beresford

Naas (Ire)

1 Mile (T)

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Japan

2nd - Mount Everest

3rd - Power of Now

4th - Sovereign

Chef Numbers:   DP = 4-2-22-12-0 (40) DI = 0.74   CD = -0.05

Mare Numbers:  DP = 4-7-1-14-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 20   Index = 0.59   Triads = 12-22-21

The second European Prep winner on Turf this year is stacked as well. Match these numbers to Mohawk above and the configurations are almost identical top and bottom, across the board. This is because this guy is also a son of Galileo, which means everything stated above applies to this guy as well. Now we have 2 who rival Code of Honor as far as configurations. The numbers between these 3 guys are close to the best I've seen in years. The fact that 3 of them all did so well in shorter races that were not  close to their optimum means that the best is still yet to come. Major difference in the comparison between the 3 is that Code of Honor dazzled on dirt in America already. The extremely high amount of total points is due to the fact that their sire is a Chef de Race. That accounts for 16 points right off the bat. For in depth numbers analysis, refer to Code of Honor blog article. Same applies because the speed/stamina balance is the same.

Royal Marine  Ravens Pass - Inner Secret (Singspiel)

Oct 7

Qatar Prix Jean-Luc

Chantilly (Fr)

1 Mile (T)

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Royal Marine

2nd - Broome

3rd - Anodor

4th - Boitron

Chef Numbers:  DP = 4-3-8-3-0 (18) DI = 1.57   CD = 0.44

Mare Numbers:  DP = 6-8-3-6-10   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.79   Triads = 17-17-19

 

Although the numbers are typical for a European turf runner, the combination of the chefs and mares together offer a bit more balance than the normal dominating stamina numbers flowing through both sets. The mares profile is fairly even in its speed wing and stamina wing which could be good for dirt purposes, but may be lacking for Derby purposes. The triads are actually wonderful, but the mare index is average and the even sides are a bit boring for lack of a better word. So far, out of the 3 prep winners, the first two winners on this list seem to be the potential mega-stars of the season as far as inheritance and numbers. After all, their immediate sire is a listed Chef-de-Race. It doesn't get much better than that.

Magna Grecia  Invincible Spirit - Caberet (Galileo)

Oct 27

October Trophy

Doncaster (GB)

1 Mile (T)

Points 10 - 4 - 2 - 1

1st - Magna Grecia

2nd - Phoenix of Spain

3rd - Western Austrailia

4th - Circus Maximus

Chef Numbers: 3-3-14-6-0 (26) DI = 1.00   CD = 0.12

Mare Numbers:  3-6-1-8-9   Speed = 9   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.48   Triads = 10-15-18

And yet another descendant of the great Chef Galileo tackles a European Derby prep. It may be wise to check all sires for the remaining preps overseas in search of a son or Grandson of Galileo entered going forward. They seem to be unbeatable. Galileo is on a roll this year on Turf with these two year olds. The incredible amount of chef stamina on top of the incredible amount of mare stamina found in these numbers is phenomenal for turf running and it will be interesting to see how they all translate onto dirt. The point spread in the mares numbers between the speed inheritance and the stamina inheritance is typical of a European bred colt. They far outweigh anything going on in our part of the world, with the exception of Code of Honor so far.

Jahbath   Mukhadram - Oulianofsk (Pientre Celebre)

March 6

Condition Stakes

Kempton Park (GB)

1 mile (S)

Clear - Fast

Points 20 - 8 - 4 - 1

1st - Jahbath

2nd - Getchagetchagetcha

3rd - Target Zone

4th - Chairman of the Board

Chef Numbers:  DP =1-0-11-0-0 (12)   DI = 1.18   CD = 0.17

Mare Numbers:  DP = 5-3-4-6-10   Speed = 8   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.57   Triads = 12-13-20

This horse is really really good. Five races so far, he has won 4 and placed in the other. Out of all of the European contenders, his races have appeared to be the most impressive to date. In typical European fashion, the stamina influence is off the charts. But this guy is fast as well. Really fast. To date, this guy has the best shot at securing a gate in the Derby by way of Dubai at the end of March. He will be in that race and with the stamina numbers that he is holding coupled with his acceleration down the stretch, he will be hard to beat. The chefs profile, 1-0-11-0-0, depicts total Classic dominance and since he has displayed winning speed way below that distance, he will sustain that same speed going up to 10f+. His mares offer him a point spread of 8 points leaning to stamina. The inheritance is very lopsided to stamina. Of course he thrives on AWS. This does not bode well for Kentucky but should be just fine for the UAE Derby. This is a very good horse and most likely will be the overseas guy that comes here 3 days prior to the Derby with his incredible breeding and his impeccable resume and demands respect. He will assume the role of the European big beast who steals our money for that just in case scenario. Happens every year! This might just be the guy.

Playa Del Puente Elzaam - Playamongthestars (Galileo)

March 8

Patton

Dundalk (Ire)

1 Mile (S)

Points 20 - 8 - 4 - 2

1st - Playa Del Puente

2nd - Western Australia

3rd - Numerian

4th - Van Beethoven

Chef Numbers:  DP = 2-1-11-8-0 (22) DI = 0.63   CD = -0.14 

Mare Numbers:  DP = 2-6-3-11-9   Speed = 8   Stamina = 20   Index = 0.41   Triads = 11-20-23

Galileo has decided to stake his claim on 2019 with yet another son or grandson racking up points for the Kentucky Derby. This time he is found on the bottom of this chart  through his mare. It is hard to differentiate any of these guys based on their numbers because they are all absolutely spectacular and they are all balanced in the same manner. It is the same analysis over and over again. This guy is packing a 12 point spread between his mare speed/stamina balance, his CD is in the negatives, his profiles are both loaded on the stamina wing and yet wins going much shorter than is ideal. Between all of them, one can not differentiate when they are pitted against each other, however, only one will be coming to Kentucky. In this regard, that one will be pitted against our stamina guys. Only Code of Honor will rival these types of numbers and he must be given the nod due to where he lives and because he is winning his races on dirt, not AWS or Turf, which is where he probably belongs as well due to that breeding. Its that simple this year. I would say that the fact that these types (Galileo types) are all outrunning their opponents in these major races, that it only enhances how good Code of Honor really is. These guys are at home with that breeding, winning on courses suitable for them. Between Instagrand as the top speed guy and Code of Honor as the top stamina guy (as far as numbers that is) the idea of a European invader busting into their mix is hard to fathom. This guy is another who rivals Thunder Snow in terms of numbers (I believe we are up to 7 now) and I feel that because their "brother" is right here in America already, their chances are slim to none in Kentucky. For each and every one of those 7, they must have sunny skies and not a speck of moisture to even have a chance.

Prep Winner

April 11

Cardinal Condition

Chelmsford City (GB)

1 Mile (S)

Conditions

Points 30 - 12 - 6 - 3

1st -

2nd -

3rd -

4th -

Chef Numbers:

Mare Numbers:

Analysis:

Prep Winner

Date

Chef Numbers:

Mare Numbers:

Analysis:

 
 
 

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