2021 Pennsylvania Derby Analysis
Originally Posted September 19th, 2021
September 25, 2021 - Parx Racing - 1 1/8th
Track Record: 2014 - Bayern - 1:46.96
Previous Winners and how they fared for Breeders Cup:
2020 - Did Not Run
2019 - MATH WIZARD DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69 Midpack 5th in the Classic - Santa Anita
2018 - McKINZIE DI = 2.33 CD = 0.80 Stalk and Lead 12th in the Classic - Churchill Downs
2017 - WEST COAST DI = 3.73 CD = 0.96 Stalk and Lead 3rd in the Classic - DelMar
2016 - CONNECT DI = 3.67 CD = 0.86 Midpack Did not Run Breeders Weekend
2015 - FROSTED DI = 2.75 CD = 0.67 Midpack 7th in the Classic - Keeneland
2014 - BAYERN DI = 3.00 CD = 0.86 Lead - 1st in the Classic - Santa Anita
2013 - WILL TAKE CHARGE DI = 6.00 CD = 0.81 Midpack 2nd in the Classic - Santa Anita
2012 - HANDSOME MIKE DI = 2.69 CD = 0.79 Stalk and Lead 9th in the Classic - Santa Anita
2011 - TO HONOR AND SERVE DI = 2.38 CD = 0.59 Stalk and Lead 7th in the Classic - Churchill Downs
2010 - MORNING LINE DI = 2.38 CD = 0.59 Lead 2nd in the Dirt Mile - Churchill Downs
The Pennsylvania Derby is ALL BIAS. It is a speed track with advantage going to Lead and Stalkers and no further back than mid-pack. Stamina horses have zero advantage both in their breeding and in their position on the track.
The Pennsylvania Derby is also not known for producing Breeders Cup Classic Winners. The only one who found "winning success" was Bayern. There are several reasons for this. Bayern did post a track record for his performance at Parx which affirms his outward displayed speed, an absolute necessity for this race. The second reason is because Parx is much more aligned in the bias with how the track (used to) play at the Santa Anita track, which is where the Classic was held in 2014. Third, well, when you take out the best on the field at the starting gate, Shared Belief, it becomes an open playing field.
Will Take Charge also found success in his 2nd place showing in the Classic held at Santa Anita. Bias for bias, Parx went with Santa Anita. It does not translate to Keeneland or Churchill. Math Wizard was a bit distance challenged for the 10f of the Classic in the first place but still put on a half decent performance in grabbing his 5th at Santa Anita. Morning Line dropping down in distance to the Dirt Mile was the perfect placement for this winner at Parx rolling back to Churchill Downs for Breeders Weekend. There is no doubt that he would have fared just like McKinzie and To Honor and Serve if placed in the Classic. The bias of the track competes unfavorably to the other. What wins on one, suffers on the other.
Parx Racetrack is one of the easiest handicapping venues. It is a speed trap and those who sit midpack up to close to the lead will find great success. Stamina can easily be tossed from the first place spot. This year, Breeders Cup Weekend will be held at DelMar. Going from this race to the Breeders Cup Classic at DelMar is also a fairly easy read as well. DelMar is also like Parx WHEN high tide comes late in the day. Just like a "sloppy track" - the wet surface hands over additional advantage to the speedsters and when high moisture presents itself closer to the bell, it will always be in favor of a speedy lead type. Google High Tide and Low Tide figures at DelMar before placing any bets come Breeders Weekend. This high tide affects the bias and hands a glowing advantage to a speedy 9f Parx winner.
The 2021 Contenders: (In order of Advantage)
Hot Rod Charlie
DP = 1-4-5-0-0 (10) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.60
Mare Profile = 11-1-5-11-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.27 Triads = 17-17-19
Between his inheritance, his style of running and his performance at Monmouth (even though he was dq'd) Charlie will find much greater ease at Parx on that bias. He will thrive on it. DQ aside, he tackled Monmouth which is not the most conducive bias for him, so, if he strays straight and on target, he should explode here. His transition to DelMar will be unquestionable, as his speed coupled with easy 10f capability gives him ample advantage on both surfaces. Hot Rod Charlie is in a position to take it all the way. He is very lucky that Essential Quality is sitting this one out.
DP = 1-5-6-0-0 (12) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.58
Mare Profile = 10-5-2-4-5 Speed = 15 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.69 Triads = 17-11-11
These numbers look fantastic for this race on their own and with the addition of Constitution injecting that Tapit stamina, there is no reason why this guy can't continue his upward rise and grab a nice piece of this race. His class is a bit low on paper but so far he has done everything he has been asked to do with the races he has been afforded. His style is very good here and even though he takes the 10 gate, his early speed figures to date should see him get his position easily. Looks to be in a very good spot to upgrade his status and he seems to be the safest bet for superfecta consideration. With Charlie and Midnight Bourbon as the chalk for this race, this guy appears to be the best shot against them.
DP = 4-2-8-0-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 9-3-3-5-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.20 Triads = 15-11-14
He has the numbers, the style and the class, but importantly, he has the bias advantage and he should easily thrive at this track. This is his optimum distance and although he can push it to the Classic distance, his advantage is much stronger at 9f. It would be severely odd if this guy doesn't perform here because out of all of his 10 previous races, this one is the best advantage he has seen to date.
I am Redeemed
DP = 1-7-6-0-0 (14) DI = 3.67 CD = 0.64
Mare Profile = 10-1-3-6-12 Speed = 11 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.73 Triads = 14-10-21
Fantastic numbers with speed on top and killer stamina on the bottom. The stamina part will only come into play though if there is a speed duel out front. He is a Parx boy and has performed on point every step of the way. The 10 points in the Mares Brilliant spot in his profile is very nice for the PA Derby and it seems that he has one of the better opportunities to grab something with Americanrevolution underneath the two big guys. Even with the apparent extra excitement that I Am Redeemed will no doubt see in that Post parade, he has ample stamina to counteract something that he has never experienced at Parx. Not a bad shot here to move forward.
DP = 2-1-8-1-0 (12) DI = 1.40 CD = 0.33
Mare Profile = 5-10-4-9-3 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.26 Triads = 19-23-16
Into Mischief son with a-typical numbers. He has "Vyjack Numbers" which are excellent for this distance but he has zero shot at a win in this particular race. He has never been off the board and he has conquered all 3 surfaces. The turf and AWS successes come from his chefs Index and CD, while his dirt successes have come from Into Mischief and his mares. He is running directly in line with his inheritance, just like Vyjack who found the same with his breeding. An extra few bucks for lower board hit consideration is in order here, mainly due to the Into Mischief factor coupled with these mares numbers. An outright win is out of the question though.
DP = 0-2-4-0-0 (6) DI = 2.00 CD = 0.33
Mare Profile = 11-2-2-4-8 Speed = 13 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.18 Triads = 15-8-14
He has no shot at a win and his style will be a serious hinderance but he will surge late and he does have a bit more class in him that most of the others. Not the best spot for this guy who hasnt really been able to put his "imbalance" together in order to see success. He tries hard every time and he will have to try doubly hard to get up front on this track. His class may help him hit a low spot if Americanrevolution or I Am Redeemed get intimidated.
DP = 2-6-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63
Mare Profile = 8-3-2-6-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 13-11-16
Numbers are stagnant but not terrible. Style is horrendous for this race and unfortunately he is a bit slow even against a couple of the under-classmen. He has no shot against Charlie and Bourbon and it appears that Americanrevolution has much more in his tank to overtake him. Bourbonic did shine at Parx a time ago, grabbing 2nd in the mud, but he faced amateurs that day. Quite the opposite for the Pennsylvania Derby.
P = 3-4-9-0-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.63
Mare Profile = 5-7-1-9-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.82 Triads = 13-17-16
Inheritance for the race is okay, however, the speed gained from the mare's falls short. One of these guys has to fill out the superfecta bottom slots, but Americanrevolution appears much better suited. At the very least, Speakers forged ahead at Saratoga in his last, which, since the change-over of the dirt surface has given favor to speed as opposed to the favorable stamina bias of the past. He should put in an ample performance here and seems to have some sort of a shot underneath at the very least. He sits fairly in line with Weyburn, but the other under-dogs up top have much more to offer.
DP = 5-8-10-1-0 (24) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 6-5-1-8-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.72 Triads = 12-14-17
His numbers are fine and his style suits the Parx track, however, this horse is slow. Way too slow to compete against the elite. His performance here should gain over some of his previous because the bias will cater to him, however, the uptick in catering will also show its face to Charlie and Midnight Bourbon and a few of the others. His class knocks him away from that Winners Circle. The mares .72 index is not giving him enough ample speed to compete here for a win.