2019-2020 Derby Prep Winners Analysis

The analysis for each Derby prep winner is strictly for the 10f distance of the Kentucky Derby in preparation for any Futures Bets in the Pools at Churchill Downs. The analysis looks at the breeding and inheritance of the winning horse as it pertains to the Derby itself and not to future Preps. This post will be updated after each prep.

 

9/14/2019 IROQUOIS STAKES - 1 1/16 - CHURCHILL DOWNS - Clear/Fast

DENNIS' MOMENT Chart

Chefs DP = 3-4-7-0-0 (14) Index = 3.00 CD = .71

Mares DP = 10-0-4-5-9   Speed = 10   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.89   Triads = 14-9-18

St. Simon: 12.50%

Rating for Derby: ++

In this case, the glaring tell-tale set of numbers is the mare dosage profile. 10-0-4-5-9. That 10 in the Brilliant slot depicts an enormous amount of inherited female speed mainly because of the separation caused by the zero in the Intermediate slot. That speed is highly enhanced and it will remain pure. When the chef and mare Center of Distribution numbers are combined, they depict an optimum distance of exactly 10f, however, that Mare Brilliant 10 will steal some of that endurance away. There is no room here for this guy in a field of 20 to travel even one inch away from the rail. His triads are configured very similar to most speedy types who fall short of the 10f year after year. He should thrive up to 9.4f and his speed inheritance is spectacular for the Derby Road, but once he gets to the big show in May, he will fall very short of that wire. Unfortunately, the chefs give endurance but the mares steal plenty away. Dennis' Moment should be on everyone's win tickets for the Breeders Juvenile but held away from Derby Futures Pools. The 10f at Churchill with 19 others is not there.

 

9/27/2019 AMERICAN PHAROAH STAKES - 1 1/16 - Santa Anita - Cloudy/Fast

EIGHT RINGS Chart

Chefs DP = 7-6-5-0-2 (20) Index = 3.44 CD = .80

Mares DP = 5-5-5-10-4 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = .87 Triads = 15-20-19

St. Simon = 12.50%

Rating for Derby: +++

Yes. Yes. Yes. For the Derby, his high amount of inherited chef speed will give him the advantage against the future field and the mares incredible set-up will allow him to sustain that speed going the 10f distance. His advantage will be greatly enhanced if the Derby is run sloppy which is always a strong probability that it will be. It is the layout of the mares profile, dominant in the Solid Category (13-14-15f) and how that affects the triads set-up. (He is a Lookin at Lee type with the ability to grab a piece in the Derby)The other important aspect is that both the top and bottom spread fairly evenly across which means he should run exactly the same as each distance progresses. Even though his chef profile decreases in the first 3 slots, that 2 found in the Professional category weights him back evenly. There would be no money wasted here if added to Futures Exacta bets this early. Take note if he runs on a sloppy track in any upcoming Preps.

 

10/5/2019 BREEDERS FUTURITY - 1 1/16 - Keeneland - Clear/Fast

MAXFIELD Chart

Chefs DP = 3-2-7-0-0 (12) Index = 2.43 CD = .67

Mares DP = 6-7-2-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = .88 Triads = 15-17-17

St. Simon = 27.34% (Top 3)

Rating for Derby: ++++

There is a definitely something here because of the Chefs lower CD and Mares lower Index which would allow him the distance of 10f and the fact that he flew into a slow pace from the back to win this prep race may offer a little justification to keep this "average" middle indexed horse in the mix for the time being. He is a Dortmund/Catholic Boy type who will have a hard time for a win in the Derby but not impossible to manage a board hit if the track is clear and clean. As with all mid-range index 2 year olds, he will need to be watched closely to see if he continues to roll past the speed in his upcoming races consistently. May be better suited for the Belmont but way too early to make that call yet. Looks to be a talent especially with that massive St.Simon percentage from top 3 sires.

 

10/5/2019 CHAMPAGNE STAKES - 1 mi. - Belmont Park - Clear/Fast

TIZ THE LAW Chart

Chefs DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) Index = 4.33 CD = .75

Mares DP = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14

St.Simon - Top does not line breed to St. Simon - under does)

Rating for Derby: ++

He will probably post a win or two more (especially if its raining) prior to the Derby and if he secures enough points for a gate in May, he should just stay home. This horse has no shot at all in the Kentucky Derby. The mares offer nothing to sustain that chef speed further than 9f.

 

11/1/2019 BREEDERS CUP JUVENILE - 1m 1/16th - Santa Anita - Clear/Fast

STORM THE COURT Chart

Chefs DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) Index = 3.00 CD = .86

Mares DP = 6-7-3-5-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = .79 Triads = 16-15-18

St. Simon = 7.62% (First Influence is Buckpasser, St. Simon is Second Influence)

Rating for Derby: +

Unimpressive edition of the Juvenile based on the upfront runners taking full advantage of a strong bias this year. The stars of the show left behind not due to the strong breeding of the eventual winner but due to that bias which will not be seen at Churchill Downs. This race is a toss with regards to the eventual Derby field. Storm the Court has an average set-up with numbers, bottom of the speed spectrum from the chefs and basic from the mares. Fairly "boring" set-up and will have to prove dominance away from the Santa Anita track to even be considered a Derby player with these numbers. "Boring numbers" rarely find their way onto the tote board in the Kentucky Derby.

 

11/30/2019 KENTUCKY JOCKEY CLUB - 1m 1/16th - Churchill Downs - rainy/sloppy

SILVER PROSPECTOR Chart

Chefs DP = 3-7-8-0-0 (18) Index = 3.50 CD = .72

Mares = 7-5-4-8-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-17-15

St. Simon = 10.55%

Rating for Derby: +

Once the numbers (and final times) were consulted after this race, the initial excitement for the potential of a son of Declaration of War dissipated quickly. Of course this guy won this race, it was a sloppy track and both sets of numbers scream speed. High chefs index (3.50) coupled with very high mares index (1.28) works well for a sloppy race at 1 1/16th but falls off a cliff for the Kentucky Derby. This guy should be geared now for 8f races, but he won't be. So far, only 2 out of the 6 prep winners appear to be Derby Material - Eight Rings and Maxfield.

 

12/7/2019 LOS ALAMITOS FUTURITY - 1m 1/16th - Los Alamitos - sloppy

THOUSAND WORDS Chart

Chefs = 2-4-2-0-0 (8) Index = 7.00 CD = 1.00

Mares = 5-7-7-7-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 19-21-19

St. Simon = 8.59% (Much more underneath and split through Mr. Prospector on top, pushing above 15%)

Rating for Derby: ++++

Built absolutely perfect for the sloppy track today and was the easy single for the win against the other 3. Big question now is can he go the additional distance in the Derby. The triads are spectacular and the addition of his prominent Non-Chefs will drop that CD down a bit. He has a marvelous balance and if it rains on the first Saturday in May, he is a concrete player. If it is clear and sunny, he still deserves attention. (Nyquist-Audible-Improbable type with these numbers) Baffert has a live one here. High speed inheritance gives the advantage (7x more speed over stamina) and the mares give him the Classic distance. Smashing.

 

12/7/2019 REMSEN STAKES - 1 1/8th - Aqueduct - Clear/Fast

SHOTSKI Chart

Chefs = 1-2-6-1-0 (10) Index = 1.50 CD = .30

Mares = 6-5-7-4-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = .83 Triads = 18-16-20

St. Simon - 14.06%

Rating for Derby: +++

This guy is an extremely hard read based on his numbers and his chart. The top depicts stamina with a lack of sprinters speed and the bottom, (although weighted and balanced) tips to stamina as well but he decides to jump out of the gate and wire the field. Usually with this type of configuration measured against his style of running, one would look at this and conclude that he is a complete standout who is running counteractive to his inheritance (similar to a Gun Runner or War of Will type). While Pedigreequery is adding in Seeking the Gold and Storm Cat as Intermediate Chefs (this is incorrect and not verified by the powers that be) it pushes his index (from them) up to a 3.50 with a CD of only .61. The latter numbers make sense though if you look at his style of running and if they hold true, this guy would be on fire for the Derby. The only thing we can do here is monitor his upcoming performances. Either way, he is holding something special, be it outperforming and running through his inheritance or the two unlisted "chefs" are staking an enormous claim on this young runner. We need to reserve judgement and hold off on a confident analysis with this particular colt. His upcoming performance on a different bias will shed additional light on his true leaning. If he continues to wire fields at different tracks, this guy would be the threat of the decade in the Derby with these "stamina" numbers, but at this point we need additional insight. More to follow.

 

12/15/2019 SPRINGBOARD MILE - 1 mi - Remington - cloudy/fast

SHOPLIFTED Chart

Chefs = 0-0-0-0-0 (0) Index = 0.00 CD = .00

Mares = 4-11-5-7-3 Speed = 15 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.33 Triads = 20-23-15

St. Simon = 37.11% (Top 6 influences direct)

Rating for the Derby: ++

This horse does not have one chef in his first 4 generations. Not one, therefore all numbers across depict zero. His mare line is packed with Reines and the dominance falls in the Intermediate slot (7f-8f-9f). The highest influence for this guy leading to St. Simon is Clever Trick, who never won a graded stakes race. So where do we go here? With high influence from Nearco, Bold Ruler, Neartic, Northern Dancer, the strong potential may fall onto these guys but very hard to be confident with such a broad option. The mares are filled with speed and even though the triads are packed, they lean too far to the left and the point spread drops too negatively for the standards of the Derby. Without chefs to consult, this guy is too up in the air to take a proper stance but with the configuration of the mares numbers, it would be 100 to 1 that this guy sees 10f with any sort of ease. Something intriguing though with this setup for something other than the Derby, (going shorter) - this lies within the strong inheritance of speed found in those mares and the massive percentage that line-breeds to St. Simon. With no chefs to consult, this leaves his influence from his sires very wide open. Intriguing indeed.

 

1/1/2020 JEROME STAKES - 1 mi. - Aqueduct - cloudy/good

INDEPENDENCE HALL Chart

Chefs = 3-5-6-0-0 (14) Index = 3.67 CD = .79

Mares = 7-7-4-4-8   Speed = 14   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.04   Triads = 18-15-16

Rating for the Derby: ++

St. Simon = top does not - second Influence split 14.06% through Mr. Prospector

Mixed emotions here. Typical under par mare set-up of a Tapit line colt (2nd generation in this case) which would normally suffer in the Derby but just like Tacitus, he is holding a greater influence of speed on top (above 3.00) which may allow him to be competitive at Churchill. Seems to have a bit more excitement to him at this stage over Tacitus as well. St. Simon influence is lacking. This is the type that gets you excited early on but then begins to taper off for the Derby. The Tapit factor needs to be front and center with a horse who has this type of configuration. That aspect always has more appeal.

 

1/4/2020 SHAM STAKES - 1 mi - Santa Anita - Clear Fast

AUTHENTIC Chart

Chefs = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) Index = 3.00 CD = .83

Mares = 4-7-9-7-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.09   Triads = 20-23-19

St. Simon = 19.72%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

When the Center of Distribution is calculated for the mares, it results in a .07 and when combined with the chefs, he displays an optimum of 9.4f on a clean track and at least 9.7f on a wet track. With these numbers he looks to be set to claim a top spot on the leader-board after he wins the Santa Anita Derby. He hits the mark with a serious set of triads which are packed to the brim. That set-up hits the proper requirement and he will need to either rely heavily on those mares to get those 10f though or he'll need to rely on Bafferts Magic. Either way, you are probably looking at the eventual favorite of the 2020 Derby right here if he stays healthy. The distances of the Trail Preps are by far his for the taking, he will need his trainer's magic to get him those 10f in the Derby. This scenario is one we have seen a few times in the past. At least that aspect is consistent. His set-up resembles his half brother, Practical Joke, almost spot on. Practical Joke managed 5th in the Derby on a very muddy track - sounds about right with that 9.7f sloppy optimum.

 

1/18/2020 LECOMTE STAKES - Fairgrounds - Cloudy Fast

ENFORCEABLE Chart

Chefs = DP = 5-9-11-1-0 (26) DI = 3.00   CD = 0.69

Mares = 9-5-2-6-7   Speed = 14   Stamina = 13   Index = 1.14   Triads = 16-13-15

St. Simon = 7.62% second influence through Northern Dancer. First influence is Teddy through Mr. Prospector.

Rating for the Derby: +

Compare the chefs inheritance to Authentic just above. Both have a 3.00 index, but note the huge difference between their CD's. Authentic has a .83 while Enforceable has a .69. That is very significant and substantial. The balance tips a great deal to endurance for Enforceable from the chefs which points directly to the Tapit effect. Note the strong difference between the triads. Authentic far surpasses in the triads, however, the indexes are almost exact. This highlights the affect of that balance for the Derby with Tapit colts. His numbers lack up top with the speed needed for the Derby race (the .69 index gives distance, steals from speed) and the 3.00 index sits with horses like Tapwrit and Creator, not with horses like Tacitus. That CD is the main reason why this guy is a late runner. He is running directly in line with his inheritance. The influence for the mares has no bearing, it is all chefs with Tapit colts. He would need a clean track to be a player in the Derby and even then he would need a boatload of speed demons without the mare stamina to continue in the gates next to him. This guy is much better suited for the Belmont Stakes. He makes Authentic look even better when pitted against each other for Louisville.

 

1/24/2020 SMARTY JONES - Oaklawn Park - Cloudy Muddy

GOLD STREET Chart

Chefs = 6-3-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57 CD = .94

Mares = 4-5-3-9-5 Speed = 9 Stamina = 14 Index = .73 Triads = 12-17-17

St. Simon - Split through Mr. Prospector 9.37%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

Finally a serious set of numbers to hit this Prep list. This is a very good horse and his breeding lends itself to digging inside a little deeper. As the numbers stand on their own, he has the speed to compete and the 5 point spread in his mares numbers between the inherited speed /stamina is very good. He leans way over to the stamina side on the bottom and the fact that he wired a sloppy track tells alot about this guy. He favors his chefs speed, and his mares gave him ample endurance to carry it. Works very well for Kentucky in the sunshine. His standout Prominent Non-Chef is Street Cry (no, he is not a chef yet) and he shows up in Gold Street's Second Generation which offers him additional stamina. The type of stamina that is needed in the Derby. With the addition of Street Cry's stamina, Gold Street is a bigshot top and bottom. Yes, this guy is a player among those above who have already won a prep. He is a Vino Rosso type. St. Simon factor lacks quite a bit but we'll wait to see who follows on this list. As of now, he has the breeding to make that stretch. He should only progress from here.

 

2/1/2020 ROBERT B LEWIS - 1 1/16 - Santa Anita - Clear Fast

THOUSAND WORDS Chart

See Above.

Chefs = 2-4-2-0-0 (8) Index = 7.00 CD = 1.00

Mares = 5-7-7-7-5   Speed = 12   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.00   Triads = 19-21-19

Rating for the Derby: ++++

First Derby Prep win in the Los Alamitos. Undefeated record to date. Still remains a high prospect for a board hit (a super spot) but now deserves a little more scrutiny. For the Derby, every number across both sets matters so he now requires more nit-picking. The drop between the Intermediate slot and his Classic slot in the chefs profile is a slight negative, What does stand out here is the three 7's straight across in his mares profile which depicts an even inheritance between the Intermediate (7f,8f,9f) and the Classic (10f,11f,12f) and the Solid slots (13f,14f,15f). This means that from his mares, the speed and stamina that he gained from them radiates evenly from the Classic starting point. That fact is excellent. His optimum is perfect for the trail, lower for the Derby, however, not lower than a board hit requirement for the Derby. His non-prominent chefs add additional stamina. His numbers continue to look very promising for a super spot (top 4) for the May race and equally promising for the future preps that he will perform in.

 

2/1/2020 WITHERS - 1 1/8 - Aqueduct - cloudy fast

MAX PLAYER Chart

Chefs: 8-5-11-0-0 (24) Index = 3.36 CD = .88

Mares: 8-3-6-4-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 11   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-13-17

St. Simon = 40.04% (second thru fifth influence direct, split from top influence)

Rating for the Derby: +++

Gorgeous set of influential sires in his royal chart (along with a most beautiful sire, Honor Code) but appears to be up against it for the Derby. His Preakness prospects look incredible along with some of the Graded Stakes races that his father won. The only possible saving grace here is the loaded sire side of his chart that may overcome those mares. This would be a necessity for him to be a top 4 player in the Derby. His Grandfather, A.P. Indy, son of Seattle Slew, had a profile of 13-10-20-3-0 which is a serious amount of potential influence that must overtake those mares, and in this instance, seems a major possibility. Running style alone sets him closer to resembling AP Indys level as opposed to his immediate sire's rear running style. Max Player's mares do steal alot of stamina but the potential to find a greater amount of sire influence is real. The incredible amount of St. Simon influence is magnificent (all sire influence) and maybe it is just wishful thinking on my part but with such a chart filled with equine male players, the probability that he leans closer to that side of the stamina influence could be real here. If he continues to run mid-pack in his next, it would appear that he may have just enough left in the tank to hold on for another 1/8th to grab a small piece in the Derby. Depending on the mare stamina of the lead and stalking horses with the higher end speed indexes will tell us if he can continue those extra lengths. That 40% influence is the standout here. Love his chances in the Preakness, hopefully he retains his health (and his feet) for the upcoming months. This guy could be a superstar just under 10f.

 

2/1/2020 HOLY BULL - 1 1/16 - Gulfstream - cloudy fast

TIZ THE LAW Chart

See Above.

Chefs DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) Index = 4.33 CD = .75

Mares DP = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14

Rating for the Derby: ++

First Derby prep win in the Champagne Stakes. The only saving grace this horse has for the Derby and beyond is the Tapit factor in his 2nd generation but even then, the Derby is a different kind of beast and that mare index and the higher 4.33 index is gonna be tough to crack in Kentucky. Some of the players in the Triple Crown Series who had that apparent stronger crazy influence from Tapit (Frosted, Tapwrit, Constitution, Creator, etc) all had chef indexes way below Tiz the Law, so on the surface his potential in the Derby itself looks amazingly bleak when looking at these numbers. That high 1.28 mare index underneath his 4.33 chef index adds up to doom in the Derby, but Tapit has a way of throwing those numbers in the trash. I see Tiz the Law as a type like Bolt d'Oro who shined all the way up to the Derby and gave serious headaches in trying to figure out how his numbers would play out for the big show. With Bolt, his numbers ultimately kicked into high gear at the 9.5f mark so taking the numbers at face value is important. But Bolt did not have that looming unknown Tapit factor. I still believe that this guy will have a very hard time in the Derby keeping pace towards the stretch but after that it is a roll of the "Tapit Dice".

 

2/8/2020 SAM F. DAVIS - 1 1/16 - Tampa Bay Downs - clear/fast

SOLE VOLANTE CHART

Chefs: 6-0-13-5-2 (26) Index = .93 CD = .12

Mares = 4-9-5-9-5   Speed = 13   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.92   Triads = 18-23-19

St.Simon = 18.75%

Rating for the Derby: +++++

Our Stamina Boy has arrived. His five digit chefs profile is exquisite. That Chefs Index of .93 depicts less than 1X the amount of speed inherited over stamina. His low .12 Center of Distribution puts him past the 11f mark. The balance depicted in the mares profile is close to perfect - backed up on either side of his Classic distance with high even speed (9) and high even stamina (9). Gorgeous Triads. With good health going forward, Sole Volante is absolutely 101% positively built for the Derby. None will come close to that breeding in the stamina category this year. The old saying is that there are no sure things in horse racing, well, with this guy, I am saying, you can take it to the bank. Top 4 guy sits right here. He is perfect all the way around. This guy is built like Thunder Snow, but Sole isn't going to be traveling from overseas. It is only the first week of February and I will confidently relay...Just hope for a nice clear day and spread him.

 

2/15/2020 RISEN STAR - 1 1/8 - Fairgrounds - clear/fast

MR. MONOMOY CHART

Chefs: 2-2-4-0-0 (8) Index = 3.00 CD = .75

Mares = 5-3-4-9-6   Speed = 8   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.68   Triads = 12-16-19

St.Simon = 12.89%

Rating for the Derby: +++

There are a few things that stand out here and it has to do with stamina. He has a .75 CD which is depicting a greater leaning towards endurance from his chefs with that 3.00 index. Underneath, he has a large 7 point spread between his mares speed/stamina inheritance. The triads begin with a low 12 points in speed and raise all the way up to 19 in endurance. This is excellent for the 12f Belmont Stakes (top player so far for that race) which obviously means he can travel the 10f in the Derby. The problem he has is that for the Derby, you need that stamina BUT you also need high speed numbers which is lacking here. (Think Irish War Cry or his sire Palace Malice) He will find no success in the Derby if it is muddy, he may be a player on a clear track if the speed category lacks mare stamina. So far we have a couple of players who hit that criteria so depending on the weather will be huge for this guy. It is unfortunate that trainers would not scratch a horse like this out of the Derby if it is raining and hold him for his proper spot - in the Belmont.

 

2/15/2020 RISEN STAR - 1 1/8 - Fairgrounds - clear/fast

MODERNIST CHART

Chefs: 1-2-5-0-0 (8) Index = 2.20 CD = .50

Mares = 7-2-7-6-6   Speed = 9   Stamina = 12   Index = 0.92   Triads = 16-15-19

St.Simon = 0% - Top does not lead

Rating for the Derby: ++

Just like Mr. Monomoy, this guys numbers show an advantage in the Belmont Stakes, no advantage in the Derby. He has more stamina from his chefs than Mr. Monomoy, but Monomoy has more from his mares. It's a wash. On a clear track in the Derby, he can compete but his speed lacks a great deal which means he gets nowhere near that board. On a sloppy track in the Derby, he will be looking at the back of over half the field past the wire. Derby no. Preakness no. Belmont yes.

 

2/15/2020 El Camino Real - 1 1/8 - Golden Gate - clear/fast

AZUL COAST CHART

Chefs: 3-9-12-0-0 (24) Index = 3.00 CD = .63

Mares = 11-1-5-3-11   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-9-19

St.Simon = 18.75% (Much more underneath the split of Mr. Prospector - pushing 26.57%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

This guy is an extremely hard read so more insight will need to be garnered from his next performance. The pros and cons are all over the place here. First, his mares are split in that 5 digit profile with dominance at the two extremes, 11 in quick short speed and on the far end another 11 in high endurance. This results in that minimal 9 points in the center of his triads radiating from the 2 extremes. In this case, I do not believe that those triads hold as much weight as it does for most all others for the Derby. The first (and main) reason is because he won this race on AWS which says that he is favoring the stamina end of his mares ALONG WITH that low .63 CD from his chefs. The high 11 in that speedy first slot of the mares is giving him his speed and he is using it - this creates that split in the triads. He performed extremely well going shorter on two speed biased tracks in his previous two which is telling me that this horse is capitalizing on both of his combined speed inheritance and combined stamina inheritance. In most cases like this, a colt would have to pick a side, but Azul appears to have no need for that - he is using both and he is doing it very well. The stamina that he has will give him the 10f and the speed he inherited from that 11 points in the Brilliant spot of his mares is staying intact. This is very unusual. The main take away here is that if you average out those 2 extremes, it falls directly in the center of the Classic distance. When adding in the extra points of the 3 found in the Solid slot, you see a horse whose mares actually hold everything in the Classic distance in spite of the 9 found in the center of his triads. So far, he has shown that speed in his short races and he has shown his stamina at 9f on AWS. A very hard read this early in the game but since he overpowered a field of eleven on that AWS, leads me to believe that his triads do not hold much weight. He must be watched closely to see a consistency but it appears he is loaded on both sides of the balance and so far he is proving it and showing it. He must be held onto for the time being because these performances coupled with his numbers is rare. It is usually one side or the other, not both. This points to a stand-out and a possible exception which would mean that he could be "exceptional". Much more scrutiny would be in order here before the big race in May. At this point he gets 4 stars because he is actually NOT out-performing his numbers, he is actually utilizing all of it. Again, this is very rare and could point to a serious race horse going forward. Keep him close. There are always exceptions to the rules, and he is definitely showing us signs of pure exceptionalism. He needs to keep showing it going forward.

 

2/17/2020 SOUTHWEST - 1m 1/16th - Oaklawn Park - cloudy/fast

SILVER PROSPECTOR Chart

Chefs DP = 3-7-8-0-0 (18) Index = 3.50 CD = .72

Mares = 7-5-4-8-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-17-15

St. Simon = 10.55%

Rating for Derby: +

First prep win in the Kentucky Jockey Club. Hitting just below his optimum here. His numbers still fine for the road to get to the big show, but still fall way below par for the 10f of the Derby. No change. Those who struggled in this particular prep have a much better shot in the Derby for the distance, they must manage a way to grab enough points below their optimum against the speed demons. Colts who win the preps take advantage of the shorter distance and capitalize. Those who need the extra distance and would thrive at the 10f, struggle for points to get their Derby gate. Same scenario every year.

 

2/29/2020 THE FOUNTAIN OF YOUTH - 1 1/16 - Gulfstream - clear/fast

ETE INDIEN Chart

Chefs DP = 3-5-6-2-0 (16) Index = 2.20 CD = .56

Mares = 5-7-5-9-2 Speed = 12 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.22 Triads = 17-21-16

St. Simon = 39.65%

Rating for the Derby: +++

This type of breeding is very difficult to figure because there are several pros but there are a few cons that upset the cart. The 2.20 index is very harsh to win the Derby outright but never impossible for a board hit, That .56 CD is definitely in his favor, especially since he runs out on the lead. The stamina he gained up top gets him the 10f but the addition of the mares drops him down in endurance just a bit. The triads are actually configured half decent for one who gained more stamina up top and basically balances out quite nicely. Stamina on top, speed on the bottom. It's not hefty (which is what you want for Kentucky) but it balances none-the-less. Two major positives in this guys inheritance - the St. Simon percentage of almost 40% and the presence of Ribot and Flower Bowl on the Mare's side of his chart - which lead to Graustark in his 4th generation. That line lights up his chart significantly. At this point, since there are quite a few easy tosses on the list, this guy must be reserved for the time being. It appears that his pro's outweigh his con's for a possible board hit when pitted against what is present on this list to date. It would be naive to discard that Ribot/Flower Bowl line on the bottom of his chart this early on the road. The prep itself pitted him against only 4 solid players, with one taking a pass - he managed to beat out a very good speed guy - which with his breeding was a very nice performance from his outside post, and it showed that having that stamina in his back pocket in the right race against the right horses was key to his win. He will not have that pleasure in the Derby with what is on the list so far, however, they won't have a few of the extreme positive points that he is holding. He must remain for the time being.

 

3/7/2020 THE GOTHAM STAKES - 1 mi. - Aqueduct - clear/fast

MISCHEVIOUS ALEX Chart

Chefs DP = 1-2-3-0-0 (6) Index = 3.00 CD = .67

Mares = 7-6-6-6-4   Speed = 13   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.30   Triads = 19-18-16

St. Simon = 0%

Rating for the Derby: +

Three strikes for the 10f Derby: Points total under 12, Negative points spread between mares speed/stamina and descending triads. When consulting the results chart, it had appeared that this guy ran a smash up race but in reality, the track record for this prep is held by Easy Goer back in 1989 with a final time of 1:32.40. Alex's time for the race was 1:38.80. Top linebreeding directly to Storm Cat (major speed). This was an 8f race. Optimum distance for Alex approx 9.1f. Don't fall for the hype for the Derby.

 

3/7/2020 SAN FELIPE - 1 1/16th - Santa Anita - cloudy/fast

AUTHENTIC Chart

Chefs = 4-2-6-0-0 (12) Index = 3.00 CD = .83

Mares = 4-7-9-7-3   Speed = 11   Stamina = 10   Index = 1.09   Triads = 20-23-19

St. Simon = 19.72%

Rating for the Derby: ++++

First prep win in the Sham Stakes. Those triads continue to keep him a top player in the preps and for a super spot consideration for the Derby. Baffert holds a trio of stars for Kentucky. But only one can win.

 

3/7/2020 TAMPA BAY DERBY - 1 1/16th - Tampa Bay Downs - clear/fast

KING GUILLERMO Chart

Chefs = 4-0-4-0-0 (8) Index = 3.00 CD = .83

Mares = 9-2-4-8-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.92   Triads = 15-14-19

St. Simon = 14.06% through Nearco

Rating for the Derby: +

Fluke longshot wins will happen along the way. This race only confirms how spectacular the 2nd place finisher Sole Volante truly is. Running from 11th position at the 1/2 pole to grab 2nd, coming on like a freight train and running out of track in a race where he had the highest disadvantage of the field for an 8.5f race. He smoked Chance It. Sole Volante is a superstar. King Guillermo has absolutely no shot at all at the 10f in the Derby. It would never and could never happen. The inheritance is just not there. Even in defeat, the high powered stamina gelding Sole Volante stole the weekend as a main contender for Churchill in May. I have never been so sure in my life (except for maybe Le Vent and Shared Belief being serious champs in the making!)

 

3/14/2020 THE REBEL STAKES - 1 1/16th - Oaklawn Park - Sloppy

NADAL Chart

Chefs = 3-11-15-2-1 (32) Index = 2.05 CD = .41

Mares = Mare Profile = 6-7-2-6-12   Speed = 13   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.66 Triads = 15-15-20

St Simon: 25.78% - splits push him above 30% mark.

Rating for the Derby: +++++

When you look at a colt to see what he has bred inside him in contrast to what he is displaying, this will tell you what the capability will ultimately be at 10f. At this distance, when you see a speedy high chef index, say 4.00 and higher, running on a muddy track out on the lead, it looks like easy work and its usually exciting to watch. That type of horse is advantaged in that spot and he SHOULD be performing like that at that distance. Everyone jumps on the hype because of that performance. Little do they know, usually, that colt will hit his wall at around 9f based on his inheritance and the ability to sustain that speed. On the other side, when you have a loaded colt with a chef index of 2.05 and mares numbers that depict a 6 point spread between the speed/stamina balance, running out on the lead and demolishing his opponents, you are looking at a superstar who can continue to carry that distance (out on the lead) for 10f+. This type of breeding will not hit a wall at anytime in his future performances. The 32 points aided his sloppy win, his low CD and those mares will aid on a clear track going forward. This horse is wickedly major and so far, only 2 colts on this entire list are worthy of a 5 star rating - Nadal and Sole Volante. Their breeding is sensational for 10f, but Nadal has the absolute advantage when pitted against each other. If it rains, the high amount of stamina found in Sole's numbers may hinder him, there is no doubt after today that the 32 point holder Nadal won't care. If you look at the chefs profile, he is dominant at the classic distance and also highly advantaged in the 7f to 9f range. The St. Simon 26% percentage is perfect. This is the Derby guy. A lead speedy type with more than enough stamina inheritance to sustain the distance. This is exactly the type of "stamina guy" characteristics that you would want to see. He will be pitted against colts who are opposite his breeding, those speed guys with the higher amount of mare stamina. At this point, only Authentic hits that mark. On the flip side, he will also be pitted against his immediate peer, Sole Volante, who wont find any type of advantage over him rain or shine. They should hand Nadal the roses now. It will take a monster to compete against this set-up coupled with his running style. At this point, we have Authentic, Sole Volante and Nadal who are holding the proper inheritance for the Kentucky Derby.

 

3/14/2020 JEFF RUBY STAKES - 1 1/8 - Turfway Park

FIELD PASS Chart

Chefs = 9-2-15-4-0 (30) Index = 1.61 CD = .53

Mares = 9-5-3-7-9   Speed = 14   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.93   Triads = 17-15-19

St. Simon = not on top. Buckpasser to Teddy.

Rating for the Derby: ++

Another stamina guy shows up on the list. This one is not as packed up as the other two. His mare triads fall short. There's a little something going on with his chefs profile, somewhat loaded but the mares are not really enhancing it as would be desired for the Kentucky Derby. He reminds me of Tax from last year. He will be centered in the middle of the stamina category, Nadal above him, Sole below him. When you pit the three together, Nadal inherited more speed, Sole inherited more stamina. This means that Field Pass is the average guy in that group. He will have the class of both of those guys bearing down on him. Average colts struggle in the Derby. He certainly can run the distance, but he lacks on the speed side. That is never a good sign.

 

3/21/2020 LOUISIANA DERBY - 1 1/16th - cloudy/fast

WELLS BAYOU Chart

Chefs = 5-7-12-0-0 (24) Index = 3.00 CD = .71

Mares = 4-8-2-9-8   Speed = 12   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.67   Triads = 14-19-19

St. Simon = 32.81%

Rating for the Derby: +++

A colt loaded in mare stamina loose on the lead in this race. This guy is built with major endurance and not only has 10f, but he also looks promising for the 12f of the Belmont. This guy has breeding components in the speed/stamina balance similar to horses like Vino Rosso - Magnum Moon - Irish War Cry. Speedier pedigree on top with major endurance on the bottom. He is a classic runner and will thrive going further. The main aspect that stands out is that this type of configuration has a tendency to suffer on a muddy track (all 3 comparable colts ran a sloppy Derby with no success) because they favored that stamina side. Wells Bayou will suffer the same fate on a wet track because of that set-up. At this stage, I can only give 3 stars mainly due to 2 things, lack of speed inheritance from the mares and appearance of being more suited for the Belmont over the Derby. Additionally, all of his wins have come from stalls 1, 2, and 3. Inside posts. He has good luck with his draws which cater to his style. Imagine this guy installed in post 16 in the Derby. He came in 7th on a sloppy track which reconfirms his stamina favoritism. The combined 15 points in the Intermediate slots of the chefs and mares is extremely nice and packed with speed, however the 3.00 chef index (lower end of speed spectrum) coupled with that .67 mare index (major main stamina) gets him the 10f but not as quick as as a higher end speed guy. This guy will get better and better with each added length and since the Derby is being run late this year, the fact that we know he has the 10f may be all that he really needs for this edition. The bias will be different in September and his inbred stamina may be all that is necessary.

 

3/28/2020 FLORIDA DERBY- 1 1/8th - Cloudy Fast

TIZ THE LAW Chart

Chefs DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) Index = 4.33 CD = .75

Mares DP = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14

Rating for the Derby: ++

See Above.

 

5/2/2020 ARKANSAS DERBY 1 1/8th - Clear Fast

CHARLATAN Chart

Chefs DP = 5-9-10-0-0 (24) Index = 3.80 CD = .79

Mares DP = 8-4-2-4-10   Speed = 12   Stamina = 14   Index = 0.85   Triads = 14-10-16

Rating for the Derby: +++

The only thing I can say here is "Think McKinzie"

This guy, along with Tiz the Law, are the 2 horses who could possibly spoil a Triple Crown Trophy for Nadal.

They are both much better suited for the Preakness.

 

5/2/2020 ARKANSAS DERBY 1 1/8th - Clear Fast

NADAL Chart

Chefs = 3-11-15-2-1 (32) Index = 2.05 CD = .41

Mares = Mare Profile = 6-7-2-6-12   Speed = 13   Stamina = 18   Index = 0.66 Triads = 15-15-20

St Simon: 25.78% - splits push him above 30% mark.

Rating for the Derby: +++++

As stated above on March 14th, after the Rebel Stakes...They should hand Nadal the roses now. This is the Derby guy. This is also the Belmont guy. He is definitely fast enough to win the Preakness and I am sure that Baffert wont let Charlatan interfere there but Nadal will have Tiz the Law to deal with there. Nadal is unbeatable in the Derby. His style of running, his speed, his loaded profile, and his incredible inheritance of stamina adds up to the ONE TO BEAT.

 

5/23/2020 MATT WINN STAKES - 1 1/16 - Churchill - Showery/Fast

MAXFIELD Chart

Chefs DP = 3-2-7-0-0 (12) Index = 2.43 CD = .67

Mares DP = 6-7-2-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = .88 Triads = 15-17-17

St. Simon = 27.34% (Top 3)

Rating for Derby: +++++

This guy's rating has changed from the 4 that I posted back in his Breeders Futurity race on 10/5/19 to a 5 today. The highest ranking. For the 10f distance only 3 guys have that 5 star rating... Nadal, Sole Volante and Maxfield. He is the only horse on this list whose rating was upgraded from one performance to the next. His outlook from that first prep race to this one also gets upgraded. Back then it was all about consistency going forward and since he was on a very long layoff, we were hardly afforded the opportunity to watch him grow. This 2.43 horse came back to compete after that long layoff and beat a cast of highly advantaged competitors on a WET TRACK. Serious stand-out in that category this year and seems to be the only one with any muscle in that 2.10 to 2.90 range. This Street Sense boy is destined to be a player in the Derby, he may struggle at the 9f Belmont though.

 

6/06/2020 SANTA ANITA DERBY - 1 1/8 - Santa Anita - Clear Fast

HONOR A.P.

Chefs DP = 5-6-11-0-0 (22) Index = 3.00 CD = .73

Mares DP = 8-1-7-2-10 Speed = 9 Stamina = 12 Index = .83 Triads = 16-10-19

St. Simon = 33.4% (Top 3)

Rating for Derby: ++++

Finally, he has arrived. I have made only a quick mention of this guy this Derby season. Yes, I am a superstitious one, and for fear of jinxing this son of the incomparable and gorgeous Honor Code (one of my all time favorites) I thought it best to keep him on the side and let you guys do the talking until he had those coveted points. Today, he did not disappoint and those screams were very loud over here as he swept around that final turn like a champ. I'm sure everyone was looking at that beauty with Honor Code in their eyes! Ok, the breeding... there is alot here. He has one blemish on his configurations which demands a 4 star as opposed to a 5 star. Normally those triads would push that rating a little lower but everything else that surrounds him is so top notch that he gets that 4. First, his line-breeding to St. Simon is a beautiful 33.4%. This guy line-breeds DIRECTLY to Secretariat which is his highest and brightest influence taking him to St Simon. Secondly, he has Ribot and Flower Bowl on the bottom of his chart. (Incredible set right there for Derby contenders) Third, when calculated, his mare CD is a negative .18 and when combined with his chefs, takes him to 10.3f comfortably. Both of his CD's are low, so the 10f will be absolutely no problem. The only fault here is the lack of mare influence in the center of his triads, however, if you look at the profile itself, the classic area is more than sufficient from the mares and dominant from his chefs. In addition, his mares are dominant in the Professional category (16f+). He resides on the bottom end of the speed spectrum (3.00) and in spite of that, he beat the speed of Authentic under his optimum and most likely closer to Authentic's optimum. He has some big high-end champs in his chart which impart more than enough displayed speed. Tiz the Law has a real competitor in that speed category now and he had better pray to the racing gods that Tapit is going to come through for him. With Nadal out, Maxfield and Honor A.P both have the displayed speed, the will to win, the ability to beat speedsters (without a ton of inherited speed themselves) and they are both up against inferior animals within their categories as far as distance is concerned. It is now up to Sole Volante to show us what he can do in that stamina category and apparently up to Cezanne if he comes along for the ride.

 

6/20/2020 BELMONT STAKES - 1-1/8 mi. - Belmont Park - Clear/Fast

TIZ THE LAW Chart

Chefs DP = 1-4-3-0-0 (8) Index = 4.33 CD = .75

Mares DP = 7-6-3-7-4 Speed = 13 Stamina = 11 Index = 1.28 Triads = 16-16-14

Rating for Derby: +++

Very strange to be adding The Belmont Stakes to the Derby Prep Winners article but here we are. Against everything, yes, I changed his rating from a 2 to a 3. That Tapit factor is still under the radar and no additional insight came from his performance in this race. The bias of the track catered to his speed and his forward position. He went into that race as the highest advantaged speed guy and he took it. Based on the order of finish from this race, stamina stood no shot on that bias therefore the additional Tapit stamina factor must remain in the air. His numbers are still terrible for the Kentucky Derby, and no assumption should be made because of this race. Actually, it is showing quite the opposite in terms of Tapit. In reality, the horse who stood out in this race, in defeat, was Dr. Post. When consulting the order of finish in the Belmont Stakes, the main takeaway is that this race followed all protocols for a 9f speed oriented Graded stakes race where the top finishers comprised of the 3 highest speed horses with the solo "stamina" guy. But that stamina guy was not the norm, as the true stamina guy, Sole Volante, who's rear position stood no chance on that bias. It was the stamina of Dr. Post (mid-range both in numbers and position.) Take a look at the order of finish based on their numbers and the amount of speed and stamina they each were holding...

 

1. Tiz the Law - 4.33 Chef Index, Mares Speed: 13 points Mares Stamina: 11 (Speed plus negative stamina from mares)

2. Dr. Post - 2.43 Chef Index, Mare Speed: 11 points Mare Stamina: 14 (The average guy with mare stamina - STANDOUT)

3. Max Player - 3.36 Chef Index, Mare Speed: 11 points Mare Stamina: 11 (SPEED plus even mares)

4. Pneumatic - 4.00 Chef Index, Mare Speed: 11 points Mare Stamina: 11 (Major Speed plus even mares)

5. Tap it to Win - 3.00 Chef Index, Mare Speed: 14 points Mare Stamina: 14 (Speed plus even mares)

6. Sole Volante - .93 Chef Index (Major Stamina, no shot on that bias against the speed above, except Dr. Post)

7. Modernist - 2.20 Chef Index, .50 CD (stamina, not enough speed)

8. Farmington Road - 2.56 Chef Index CD = .63 (stamina, not enough speed)

9. Fore Left - Mare Speed: 7 Stamina: 15 Index = 0.59 Triads = 14-22-22 (Favors Major Mare Stamina)

10. Jungle Runner -Mare Speed: 6 Stamina: 14 Index = 0.52 Triads = 11-14-19 (Favors Major Mare Stamina)

 

If you look closely at the order of finish, the top 5 guys consisted of the 4 highest inbred speed guys with the one standout who broke through. (As normally happens) The stamina all fell to the bottom. That was dictated by the strong bias of the track. Sole Volante who held the highest amount of stamina, completely reverse of what the track favored, still managed to get closer to those speed guy. Stamina did not touch those top spots, only Dr. Post which makes him stand out in defeat. Back to Tiz the Law - the reason why I jump up only one star, from a 2 to a 3 and not higher is because the Tapit factor DID NOT show up in this race. If it did, he would have never ever won this race on that bias. He ran EXACTLY to his numbers with NO additional input from Tapit. Its right there in black and white. This race shed absolutely no light on his Tapit influence but rather dismisses it to an extent. The order of finish on that Belmont bias is an absolute perfect snapshot of speed on top, stamina on the bottom and the lone stand-out of Dr. Post. Tiz the Law is holding class and determination and how that translates to the 10f of the Kentucky Derby still remains questionable based on his win here on that bias. Tiz the Law ran exactly to his numbers in this race, at this distance, on this bias and that does not bode very well for that possibility of additional Tapit stamina. In addition, the placement of Sole Volante on that bias with his overabundance and overwhelming amount of stamina and the fact that he obviously had the highest disadvantage on the field both in his breeding and his style of running does nothing to deter his shot at the roses in Kentucky. Dr. Post definitely steps up based on this performance. Tiz the Law remains the same.

 

6/27/2020 OHIO DERBY 1 1/8th Thistledown cloudy/fast

DEAN MARTINI Chart

Chefs DP = 2-5-5-0-0 (12) DI = 3.80   CD = 0.75

Mare Profile = 7-4-5-10-7   Speed = 11   Stamina = 17   Index = 0.79   Triads = 16-19-22

Rating for Derby - ++++

With this race, the top two who filled out the Exacta, Dean Martini and South Bend, both have Derby stand-out configurations.

SOUTH BEND

Chefs DP = 2-7-7-0-0 (16) DI = 3.57   CD = 0.69

Mares Profile = 7-2-2-8-8   Speed = 9   Stamina = 16   Index = 0.69   Triads = 11-12-18

Rating for Derby - +++++

Wow. Both of these guys have magnificent Derby numbers. The sons of Cairo Prince and Algorithms are packing perfection in the balance of these configurations. Between the two, it is South Bend who stands out just a bit more for the 10f which is why he gets 5 stars over Dean's 4 stars. Both have high speed inheritance from their chefs as depicted in their Indexes. Both have lower CD's (South Bends much nicer) and both have mares configurations which depict lower speed inheritance with extremely high stamina inheritance. Balanced to the hilt. Dean hits it a bit better with the triads, however, it is the chart of South Bend that puts him over the top. He linebreeds directly to St. Simon through AP Indy → Bold Ruler → St Simon. He has Ribot and Flower Bowl both on the top of his chart through Graustark and on the bottom through His Majesty. His sire Algorithms was a beast in his young 3 races and unfortunately that was all we were honored to witness. In watching the replay, it is easy to see that South Bend ran out of track and if one were to add in the extra 1/8th to that race, it would be no contest. But Dean certainly has the inheritance for the 10f at Churchill as well and cannot be discounted because of the optics at 9f in this race. We have just added two new potential speed stars in Tiz the Law's category and both of these sets of mare's numbers put Tiz's to shame. This is strictly looked at by the numbers, not the resume. Tiz bypasses with class however the balance of Dean and South Bend far surpasses. Tiz needs that Tapit factor which was not revealed in his win at Belmont. For the 10f Derby, based strictly on configurations and charts, South Bend stands out like a sore thumb in that speed category.

 

7/4/2020 LOS ALAMITOS DERBY 1 1/8 Los Alamitos Race Course Clear/Fast

UNCLE CHUCK Chart

DP = 3-15-6-0-0 (24) DI = 7.00   CD = 0.88

Mare Profile = 8-3-6-6-6   Speed = 11   Stamina = 12   Index = 1.04   Triads = 17-15-18

Rating for the Derby - ++

The only thing positive here is his sire Uncle Mo. Other than that, his colt has strike after strike against him. This guy is now Baffert's overly hyped "superstar" which is par for the course after one of his charges posts a win. This horse has literally beaten 7 contenders in his entire career to date. He beat them traveling 8f and 9f. He has a 7.00 flashy speedy chefs index which adds fuel to the hype. The only way this horse could ever prevail at the 10f Kentucky Derby is if his trainer has an extra helping of that "protein shake" that Justify and Charlatan were so fond of. Do not fall for Baffert's never-ending braggadocios manner after every winner's circle he finds himself in along the trail. This guy has a little extra teaspoon of stamina from his mares to travel a bit further than his first 2 races, however, what is truly running in this horse's veins does not add up to 10f. That 15 in the chef's Intermediate slot shows where the dominance lays and the 8 points in the Brilliant slot of his mares is where all of that short speed is coming from. It is a joke to think that this guy has the inheritance to endure a 10f track with these numbers. His stablemate, Thousand Words, is actually packing a much better balance leaning him closer to the 10f and the fact that he could not prevail against Uncle Chuck at this distance means nothing as it pertains to the Derby. At 10f, Thousand Words would pass him at some point because without that protein shake, Uncle Chuck does not hold enough stamina to sustain all of that chef-inherited speed. If this horse gets anywhere near that finish line in the Derby it would mean that Baffert's little "slap on the wrists" held zero integrity.

 

7/8/2020 INDIANA DERBY 1 1/8th Indiana Grand

SHARED SENSE

DP = 3-2-7-0-0 (12) DI = 2.43   CD = 0.67

Mare Profile = 8-5-0-8-7   Speed = 13   Stamina = 15   Index = 0.95   Triads = 13-13-15

Rating for the Derby - ++

Generally not a race that translates to the Kentucky Derby, however fairly half descent colts have emerged from this race like Irap, Axelrod, Lookin at Lucky and Neck N Neck as of late. These numbers also do not translate favorably to the normal First Saturday in May race, but since we are now with a race in September, the entire spectrum is wide open. Even with that in mind, the mare numbers do nothing to enhance the chef's contribution and the configurations appear slightly stagnant in the stamina department. Can he run 10f? Yes. Are the numbers hitting on all cylinders for a 20 horse field at 10f? Not in the least. His set-up is not suited for this race but that doesn't mean that he can't find his time at different venues under 10f. The mares profile itself is intriguing for 9f races and the September race that he would be much better suited for is not at Churchill - plenty of reserved 9f speed for a race more like the PA Derby at Parx.

 

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