2019 Travers Stakes Analysis

3.10 and Over

 

EVERFAST

Chefs = 3-13-12-0-0 (28) Index = 3.67 CD = .68

Mare Profile = 7-3-2-9-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.90 Triads = 12-14-16

St. Simon = 9.38%

This horse has no shot in this race.

 

ENDORSED

Chefs = 6-10-8-2-0 (26) Index = 3.33 CD = .77

Mare Profile = 12-4-1-5-7 Speed = 16 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.45 Triads = 17-10-13

St. Simon = 8.20%

He has way too much speed coming from the mares to compete alongside the stars of this field. The only way he has a shot at the board is if Maximum Security decides to run a 25 second first quarter. 10f at Saratoga is not the place for this guy.

 

GLOBAL CAMPAIGN

Chefs = 6-9-13-0-0 (28) Index = 3.31 CD = .75

Mare Profile = 7-2-1-7-12 Speed = 9 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 10-10-20

St. Simon = 7.03%

Speed horses who win this particular race traveling the 10f at Saratoga must have an extreme abundance of stamina coming from the mares which is clearly depicted here. He has 10 large points separating his speed/stamina balance. Unfortunately, his performance at 1 1/8th at Saratoga last out kept his pace and his position at an even keel and the drive at the end was non-existent. With his beautiful set of mare’s numbers, that kick at the end on the bias of Saratoga should have presented itself but it did not. With the competition he is facing, a win here does not seem at all possible, but a board hit given the mare set-up is within his grasp. Underneath on a super bet may be a consideration, if only for the money angle of the probable odds.

 

3.00 EXACT

 

HIGHEST HONORS

Chefs = 7-10-14-1-0 (32) Index = 3.00 CD = .72

Mare Profile = 11-4-0-6-10 Speed = 15 Stamina = 16 Index = 1.00 Triads = 15-10-16

St. Simon = 16.14%

This guy looks as though he could be the wise guy of the group but there is only a slight negative that he is carrying. He has plenty of positives that surely cannot be overlooked though. The St. Simon connection is strong. He has a loaded chef profile and a very nice Center of Distribution. Three races and all three very classy performances. The mare’s numbers are split but that is not uncommon for a Tapit Colt. He has won at Saratoga already, traveling 1-1/8th. That race presented a sloppy sealed track and that right there is the only negative for the handicapper. One cannot disregard the conditions of the same track and we have no way of knowing if that bias aided him for the distance or if he actually would have done even better if the track were dry. Being a Tapit colt, the numbers rarely jive with distance capability so in this instance it would appear this horse will continue to be a threat at Saratoga and the St. Simon connection should hold a great deal of value here over the configurations of the mares numbers. He should be a strong player among the otherwise underdogs.

 

MAXIMUM SECURITY

Chefs = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) Index = 3.00 CD = .72

Mare Profile = 9-3-3-6-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.83 Triads = 15-12-19

St. Simon = 12.89

He holds the speed, the stamina, the balance, the past performances, the high percentage of St. Simon, the running style and the respect. A huge player and obvious one to beat. The only question will be the bias of the Saratoga track on race day. Then there is the fact that Saratoga is known for the Graveyard of Champions. Maximum Security appears to be the type to be able to disregard that title.

 

OWENDALE

Chefs = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) Index = 3.00 CD = .63

Mare Profile = 7-7-4-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-16-17

St. Simon = 8.59%

This is a very good horse but the distance capability is not up to par with others on this field at this particular track. The mares steal a great deal away from the Chefs CD and the negative point spread is not a good sign for 10f. His .63 Center of Distribution is really very nice but the mares offer no assistance or upgrade. Reliance on the Chefs alone is a tall order.

 

2.00 to 2.90

 

GAME WINNER

Chefs = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) Index = 2.33 CD = .55

Mare Profile = 6-1-4-5-11 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.55 Triads = 11-10-20

St. Simon = 11.72%

If he runs in this race, the only mid-range/average set of Chefs numbers in true contention falls right here. He will enjoy the Saratoga surface and with the high amount of stamina that his mares have passed along to him, he will be right at home on that surface and with that bias. Major threat to Maximum Security and Code of Honor.

 

LAUGHING FOX

Chefs = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) Index = 2.50 CD = .64

Mare Profile = 5-6-2-8-8 Speed = 11 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.69 Triads = 13-16-18

St. Simon = 17.19%

Numbers-wise, this guy is holding an excellent configuration along with the highest percentage of blood leading directly to St. Simon on the field. However, his only stakes win was at Oaklawn and he was helped along by the heavy hand of Calvin Borel riding atop Proverb out on the lead. Highly doubtful that the lead in this race, Maximum will fold like Proverb did in the Oaklawn Invitational. Saratoga is a different type of beast and while the numbers here are more than sufficient to be a player, it would seem he is outranked by the caliber of some of the others.

 

LOOKING AT BIKINIS

Chefs = 6-7-12-1-0 (26) Index = 2.71 CD = .69

Mare Profile = 7-6-0-7-10 Speed = 13 Stamina = 17 Index = 0.74 Triads = 13-13-17

St. Simon = 9.38%

His numbers are not bad for the distance and the track, however, in this average category, his peer happens to be Game Winner. In this scenario, it would appear that this guy likes to show off his speed over his mare’s stamina and that is the opposite of how Game Winner utilizes his balance. Between the two, there is no comparison with the weight of the mare’s stamina and no comparison for style when competing at 10f. His .74 Mare index underneath the .69 CD of his chefs is very appealing and he certainly has it within himself to navigate the 10f but can he overcome the class found elsewhere? The numbers are nice for Saratoga, the class is the downfall.

 

Under 2.00

 

TAX

Chefs = 3-5-23-0-0 (31) Index = 1.56 CD = .31

Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.82 Triads = 16-17-20

St. Simon = 11.72%

His competitor and peer for this race is Code of Honor. He showed in his last race, the Jim Dandy, that stamina guys take very well to the Saratoga track without a preference to front or late runners. This horse does have what it takes to travel the 10f and his Derby performance means nothing when considering the distance. This guy did not like that sloppy track which is par for the course with a colt bred like this. Only the strong and seriously well-bred stamina guys can conquer the slop (Code of Honor). Stamina has an advantage here and with two very highly qualified stamina contenders this year, it would be hard to choose one over the other if playing a super, so best to stick with both.

 

CODE OF HONOR

Chefs = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) Index = .76 CD = 0.00

Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20

St. Simon = 15.63%

Built for the track with bias on his side. The best set of mare’s numbers on the field. Training like a champ and the type who becomes better and better as time goes by. As with most all Classic Distance graded stakes races, the stamina guys are pitted against the speed guys (3.00 and over) and depending on the anticipated pace up front and early on, the victor will generally come from those 2 categories. This is especially true when there is stamina backing in one or more speed guys. He has Maximum Security to deal with and in reality Global Campaign’s numbers do give him the necessary backing (but he doesn’t always like to show it off). Then there is Game Winner (if he shows up) who is the mid horse with speed and determination that should put in a good fight on the Saratoga track. Code should thrive again on this surface and as a stamina contender with perfect balance, he is finally at the best advantage for a race that he has ever had to date. Extremely favorable conditions backed with the proper inheritance.

 

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