2019 Kentucky Derby Analysis
The analysis of the 2019 Kentucky Derby Contenders is based on my work combining the chefs dosage numbers along with the mares in order to formulate a colt's optimum distance and how that pertains to the 10f of the Kentucky Derby and also to the 12f of the Belmont Stakes in some cases. The conclusions that I come to take Dr. Roman's numbers and combines them with the Reines-de-Course numbers and adds in historical outcomes.
Listed from highest inherited chef speed down to highest inherited chef stamina.
Mares are taken into consideration separately.
Added link to replays or articles - click horse name.
A few have been changed and updated after further review.
UPDATED 5/1/2019 - WEATHER
3.10+ Speed Group
The most advantaged and the most disadvantaged colts come from this group. Simply put, the disadvantaged ones are those who gained a very high amount of chef speed but their mares did not give them enough stamina to sustain it traveling 10f. Generally, those colts will pack it in before the final turn. The highly advantaged colts in this category were also recipients of extreme high speed from their chefs and the mares passed down the stamina to sustain it. The fastest horses win their races, and at 10f, they must be holding that mare stamina to continue down the stretch.
DP = 5-6-3-0-0 (14) DI = 8.33 CD = 1.14
Mare Profile = 5-5-3-8-5 Speed = 10 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.86 Triads = 13-16-16
He gained over 8x the amount of speed over stamina from his chefs which makes him the holder of the highest amount of chef speed in this year’s Derby. His mares throw a bit of extra stamina at him which boosts his distance capability past a normal sprinter pedigree. His triads for this race are at the very bottom of the heap. His past performances leave plenty to be desired next to that inheritance. He’s never won a race and with his inherited speed there is no excuse for not prevailing in those short 6f to 8f races. Additionally, he lost by 18 lengths on a sloppy track at Gulfstream which is amazingly poor for an 8.33 index colt. Unless the first ¼ mile of the Derby is run at 26 seconds or over, this guy has no shot. The entire idea is absurd. Not a chance.
Update: He gets an upgrade on a sloppy track but the extra lengths he gains is still not enough.
DP = 4-4-4-0-0 (12) DI = 5.00 CD = 1.00
Mare Profile = 7-2-5-4-9 Speed = 9 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.78 Triads = 14-11-18
Updated analysis 4/20 - This will be the 3rd time I have updated this guy's analysis. That 5 digit chef profile, 4-4-4-0-0 is the reason I keep coming back to it. The presence of Unbridled (I,C) as the closest chef to him coming from the 3rd generation is the reason why his index leans so high. He is backed up in his 4th generation, split between Intermediate and Classic sires. They balance him exact across the spectrum. It's very nice (configured across the entire chef line exactly like Classic Empire just to give you an idea of how well they are arranged). His 4 point spread between the speed vs stamina from his mares is very good as well, but the 11 in the center slot is very bad. Three positives, one negative. When looking at his past performances and seeing his figures, they do not align with a 5.00 colt. My first reaction to this may have been the correct one, and I should have left it alone. For the Derby, when triads dip that far down in the center slot, the colt will generally gravitate to one side or the other. (more speed or added stamina) Because his chef index is so high, it would seem that his chefs speed would take over in this particular set-up, however his past performance figures are saying the opposite. It appears on the surface that this guy is gravitating to the dominate 18 found in the last slot of his triads and also to that lower mare index which would cause his chef speed to get watered down. This is why I can not get away from this horse's numbers. His best pace figure so far has been at the longest distance he has run and although plane rides back and forth to Dubai have an adverse affect, I can only speak on the numbers. I do believe that these numbers coupled with his apparent fixation on his mares dominant stamina influence gives him the 10f. Whether or not his low figures or his jet-setting weekend affect his performance in the Derby is another matter. The numbers are strictly for distance capability and I do believe these numbers get him there. Being a superstitious gambler, since I have continued to agonize over this particular colt over all of the others, and since I love throwing in a couple of longshots just in case, I can see this guy at the very very bottom of a loaded 3rd or 4th spot in the super.
Update: His optimum distance is 10.1f because of the stamina that his mares gave him. This means that a whole lot of back and forth is going to go on. He needs the stamina from the mares to make the distance BUT he needs the high chef speed to work it on a sloppy track. I have spent so much time on this horse and the answer here is unfortunately 50-50 on a wet sloppy track. He needs the combination of both sets desperately to pull of an ITM spot. He has both but he allows his mares to take over his speed. This is good for the distance but it detracts from the necessary speed to compete. He can go either way. His gate is good, his running style is good, the distance seems to be good as well. He is one of the longest shots on the board so it would be your call to give him a few bucks underneath. He could either pull a Super Saver or he could come in dead last. And that is no joke.
DP = 6-8-8-0-0 (22) DI = 4.50 CD = 0.91
Mare Profile = 7-4-4-11-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 15-19-19
Fantastic numbers for the Derby. High speed inheritance and wonderful hefty triads in those 2 final slots. Those triads are extremely well configured for a 4.50 chef index. He needed stamina to sustain his chef speed and he received it. The only thing that is standing in the way of complete confidence with this guy is that his late running form has progressively decreased from his win at 7f (where he won by over 7 lengths with a late pace of 105) and it dropped when he went further to 1 1/16th and even further when he traveled the 1 1/8th. This factor must be considered because it is obvious that Win Win Win reserves all of that chef speed until the end and he cruises his mare stamina early. This may have an adverse effect traveling the 10f. His numbers, top and bottom are spectacular for the Derby. His past performances though show his best winning late figure at 7f and they have dropped since. He is a “late rally” kind of guy and his speed will be kept on hold down the backstretch. Depending a great deal on when his jockey unleashes him will tell his fate. The jockey must hold onto that stamina as long as he can because if he doesn’t and that chef speed takes over too early, he won’t make it. He can’t relinquish it too early. Since the numbers are there but his form is counter to those numbers, the confidence levels dips a bit when pitted against a couple of other speed guys in this category. His impressive late run in his last left most with a great feeling but with further and deeper review of how that all translates to the 10f shows something else. He will zoom by horses like the two contenders above because he holds the stamina to do so. He will also overtake a few below him for the very same reason. It would seem that Win Win Win has a serious chance to be a player in this race based on his numbers, but his dropping late pace as the distances go further tells another story. This is one guy who must be updated once the gate assignments are set.
Update: Post 14 isn't the greatest but the rain will get him past his 9.3f optimum distance and a bit closer to that 10 - but not quite all the way. His numbers are there for an upgrade on a sloppy track but since the optimum isn't quite enough he deserves at least a few nice spots on a super ticket. The triads and the chef index allow it. He is definitely part of the top 8 on a very sloppy track. As long as he doesn't get trapped, he should be okay.
DP = 4-11-9-0-0 (24) DI = 4.33 CD = 0.79
Mare Profile = 6-5-5-2-9 Speed = 11 Stamina = 11 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-12-16
Updated 4/29 - The dip in the chef’s profile in the classic slot, the even point spread, the stagnant mare index and the horrible triads are all negatives for superior Derby numbers. Usually with these numbers, I would easily say to run away as fast as possible for the Derby. There is a ton of negatives here, however, this guy has shown some guts that can’t be overlooked. This is a very consistent colt. He loves being on that board. In his first 7 races he has hit that board every single time at all of the distances he has traveled. Unfortunately he faltered in the Arkansas prep which was not only a distance test but more importantly, a huge sloppy track test. With his high chef index, this should have been his time to shine but it appears that the triads got the better of him. His lower CD and his lower mare index could have been the key to these board hits as the distances progressed but it looks as if he may have hit his wall. This horse does have the speed inheritance needed for the Derby and there was something about his will and determination to be in the mix in the stretch that had some hope. However, this analysis changed 5 minutes after the Arkansas Derby. His determination along the trail was admirable but the mares numbers are just not there to allow him to sustain it traveling the 10f. I would venture to guess that this guy will be heard a little ways into the future. Not now.
*Update - His last was on a sloppy track and there is a strong possibility that he just doesn't like a wet track because of those CD's. Since he had shown exceptional grit up until that day and the fact that his chefs and mares CD numbers are so low, he may just warrant slight consideration as a bottom must use in your super in the sun. The very bottom.
Update: His optimum is 9.8f. His chef index is fantastic for a sloppy track. His triads are horrible for a sloppy track. He gave us a preview of that in the Arkansas. But, Super Saver and Ice Box had horrible triads as well and their chef speed saw them through to that first and second spot. If Toddy was just having a bad day in that prep he may have an excuse but we aren't mind readers. His chefs say yes to a sloppy track. His mares give no assistance. His optimum is fairly close. 50/50 here for a board hit.
DP = 12-9-13-0-0 (34) DI = 4.23 CD = 0.97
Mare Profile = 6-6-4-7-7 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.88 Triads = 16-17-18
Everything across both lines is a huge and emphatic yes. Baffert actually has a colt who has the numbers which would “justify” being a top contender for the Derby. Perfect high speed inheritance, a loaded chef profile, higher end chef index which is counteracted by the lower mare index, stamina dominant in the triads. Everything is exactly where it should be for this particular race. The only tiny knock is that last slot in the triads. One or two points higher and we could have had an easy single on top, especially in the rain. That 18 in that last slot is good but his power would have been greatly enhanced had it been a bit higher next to that 4.23 index. It would seem that by the configurations of those triads and the lower mare index, Improbable is not as loaded as past speed types who dominated previous Derby lists which has its effect on this entire speed category. Now that the Arkansas Derby is over, and the main speed contender of the Kentucky Derby did not dominate on that sloppy track at 9f, leads me to consider the strong probability that this looks to be turning into a stamina year. There are 6 speed contenders in this category and at this moment not one of them have truly impeccable overloaded mare stamina numbers. This is leading me to believe that speed may have a difficult time this year especially on a clear fast track. This guy should be just fine though.
Update: Upgrade on a sloppy track. He has no excuses for not hitting that board on a sloppy track.
DP = 6-10-11-1-0 (28) DI = 3.31 CD = 0.75
Mare Profile = 7-6-3-7-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 16-16-16
The chef numbers are spot on, the mare numbers are even. Top is fantastic, bottom is average. Does average win the Derby? Not usually. Do those spectacular chef numbers win the Derby? Yes they do. So where do you go? Half is good and half is not. If the speed holds as it usually does year after year, he may just have to be content with a board hit. Tacitus’ numbers read speed that is sustained evenly across the board. There is no punch coming from the mares, it is even which means his speed gets enhanced and the lower CD coupled with the balanced mares stays intact. Tacitus can run 10f. He has speed from his chefs. It is low-key and even. With a nice clean trip and a half descent post, he will have no problem getting that 10f but a slower pace up front will definitely help. He is “across the board” material at this point.
Update: There is something about Tapit colts that go against the grain. There is no answer to it. Their combined numbers does not match up with winning 12f Belmont Stakes races but they do. Their numbers are better suited for the Derby but they don't get near that board. On a sloppy track, with his speed, both in the numbers and in his past displayed speed, he gets an upgrade and it is quite possible that his 3.31 index (Tapwrit 3.00, Creator 3.00) is exactly what is necessary to get him over the hump in the Derby. The difference between 3.31 and 3.00 is alot. Go with it.
Exact 3.00 Group
This 3.00 category represents the bottom end of the speed spectrum. Every colt in this group gained exactly 3x the amount of speed over stamina from their chefs. Sometimes too much speed (no matter how much inbred mare stamina) can get the better of any colt due to the spectacle of the show itself. Colts get anxious and they burn up their energy even before the race begins. This is where the lower end of the speed spectrum comes into play. The stamina still needs to be present but they are better equipped in the speed department than those below them. They still retain the edge.
DP = 5-2-7-0-0 (14) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.86
Mare Profile = 9-3-3-6-10 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.83 Triads = 15-12-19
Updated analysis 4/19 - This is the one guy on the list where I continue to look into. He is hard to figure out because his form gravitates to the 5 in the brilliant slot of his chefs coupled with the 9 in the mares same slot which combines to a fairly strong inheritance of early quick speed. The triads on the other hand are dominate in the last high stamina slot which is pointing to a colt who may just have that ability to carry that early speed the distance. Both profile set-ups are very nicely configured as well. This set-up is reminding me a great deal of Flameaway from last year, especially the mares balance. But what is different and stands out is that CD. Maximum has a CD that is much lower than Flameaway's which means he has inherited a bit more stamina up top which pushes the ability to sustain his speed longer from his chefs than Flameaway. The mare's profile figures the same. This is why I am revisiting these numbers. The 12 in the classic slot of the triads is poor, as was the case with Flameaway but that CD and the fact that Maximum goes out to the lead is a very strong asset. The 19 in that final spot in the triads is excellent and his balance between the two indexes is quite nice. In this 3.00 category, Maximum Security has the best shot for a board hit and possibly at the roses too. With the rush of posting behind me and with extra time to dissect these numbers as they compare against the field, this guy has the speed (3x more speed than stamina from his chefs), a strong CD next to that index, extra punch of mare speed early, a nice point spread, and dominant in the final slot of his triads. Maximum Security is a player in this race. A big player.
Update: For a sloppy track, the only thing that changes is doubt in those triads. Everything else is there. His optimum distance is 10.1f. His chefs numbers are right there. His mare numbers are bad. This one guy must be your call. It can go either way here on an off track.
DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.63
Mare Profile = 6-6-7-6-3 Speed = 12 Stamina = 9 Index = 1.32 Triads = 19-19-16
Updated 4/24 - Taken from my original analysis posted after his win in the Louisiana Derby - The CD associated with his Chefs is extremely nice. That low .63 number bodes well for some added distance capability with his 3.00 chef index. His speed is coming directly from his mares higher 1.32 index. The speed/stamina point spread is in the negatives which will make this colt have to rely solely on his chefs for the stamina to sustain that mare speed. Since the CD is so favorable, this idea is not out of the question as far as being a contender for an underneath spot, but the numbers are completely lacking for a win in the Kentucky Derby. These types of numbers are generally reserved for bottom of the board hits (if that). It would seem that as the distances go further, he will be able to pick it up to a point because of the high speed influence coming from his mares, but past that 9.5f mark with a full field of 20, the higher stamina-bred horses will truly take advantage of him around that final turn. He will not be able to go on with them as his speed will most likely get the better of him. Can he hold on for a piece? Maybe. But that is a matter left only to the handicapper as to how much he wants to overload his 3 and 4 spots on his Super. The two 19's in the first slots of his triads do give him a shot in those spots but the 16 in that last spot will make it very difficult to see the wire first.
Update: Major upgrade on a sloppy track. He is still short on his optimum and he will have to run through those numbers a bit but on a sloppy track his distance capability gets enhanced enough to be more confident on the wet sloppy surface for a board hit.
DP = 3-5-8-0-0 (16) DI = 3.00 CD = 0.69
Mare Profile = 7-2-3-9-6 Speed = 9 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.79 Triads = 12-14-18
Speed inheritance is lacking for the Derby but the stamina to run 10f is there. He will get the distance but much slower than many. He may be much better suited for the Belmont Stakes over this race. It takes speed to win the Derby, it takes endurance to win the Belmont. His numbers gravitate to the latter. His style of running mimics his numbers and he seems to gravitate to those mares. Not alot early but a ton late. He may be in that stampede after the turn if he can find his way through the pack and he may be chasing guys like War of Will and competing with Country House for position. Position and class usually prevails. His low CD coupled with his 3.00 index and lower numbers in the first two slots of the triads is not "speedy" enough for the Derby.
Update: Gets upgraded on the wet track but still lacks in the triads, and the stamina may still affect his displayed speed. His optimum is 10.3f which is excellent but the low CD's will hinder his ability to get up there fast enough while covered in mud. He must run up closer than his norm for any shot against the speed up top to make some noise. He runs exactly the way his triads are configured. If you think Rajiv will push him early for better position then he has the right stuff to continue faster on the backend.
2.10 to 2.90 Group
Year over year, this is the category that offers the least advantaged spot to be in, however, this year is quite different than most. Most all of the players in this category are packing more than enough stamina to get those 10f and there are a ton of them. This is unusual as most years at least 3/4ths of them can be crossed off without a second thought which leaves only 2 or 3 to deal with. Not the case this year. This is the category where many of the major Belmont Stakes players emerge from which means if they can make a mark in the 12f Belmont, they certainly will have the stamina to go 10f. Most all of the colts in this category has the ability to conquer the 10f, however, since their speed inheritance is under-par, they will be much slower at it. This is why they struggle in the Derby and this is why it is important to gauge the effect of the speed demons up above and how many can actually get the distance from that speed category. There are standouts in this average group that must still be considered because in the past they have broken that barrier. Since that it is the case, their past performances hold the most weight out of the entire field and they must be consulted at a much higher degree. Horses like Dortmund, Frosted, Commanding Curve, Wicked Strong, Went the Day Well etc. burst into that Superfecta against their disadvantage with their breeding so much scrutiny is imperative here.
DP = 6-10-18-0-0 (34) DI = 2.78 CD = 0.65
Mare Profile = 4-3-5-10-6 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.59 Triads = 12-18-21
No problems with the 10f distance. One of the highest chefs points totals of the field (but still under that 40 point mark) which may give him a little something extra on a sloppy track. If it was 40+, he would be a must use if the track ended up sloppy. It’s close enough though to at least garner a second look in that particular scenario though. He has fantastic Belmont numbers without a doubt so the question is, does he have enough speed to compete against the big guys at the top and enough to go the distance against the stamina guys below. He definitely has the competitive stamina, as that huge point spread from the mares show and his upfront style of running shows that his brilliant and intermediate chefs are having some say. If speed falters in this edition of the Derby and the stamina guys take over, this guy should be in a very good position to capitalize with his inheritance. The more I look at the dynamics of his balance, his undeniable stamina inheritance (9 point spread), the triads configurations and the fact that his 2.78 chef index is closest to the bottom of the speed spectrum above all others in this group, is opening a path to a possible board hit with this guy. His past performances have risen as the distance get closer to his optimum and he has done well even below his optimum. The fact that he has hit that board or won in all 4 of his races on 4 separate tracks offering 4 separate bias fields is pointing to a very good potential longshot here. He will be in a much better position to capitalize on all of these good points if that opening half is fast. If you believe that the Derby will be run at a fast pace, this guy must be considered for board hit. He has one of the better consistent resumes, he runs closer to the front, and he has the inheritance to go the distance. His triads demand a fast pace. While writing this particular analysis I had a bit of Déjà vu. This analysis resembles one I penned back in 2017 for a fantastic colt named Battle of Midway, the overloaded consistent horse with a 2.83 index, who broke that barrier on a sloppy track and took his rightful spot on that Superfecta ticket. Spinoff (34) is not as overloaded as Battle of Midway (44) was, but he’s holding enough to take notice next to that index. He has also shown those consistent performances from 5f to 9f just like BoM. There is definitely something here that needs to be held onto and looked at before final decisions are made. Of note here also, this guy’s numbers mimic Country House both top and bottom almost spot on. His chef’s profile is actually nicer, the balance outcome is almost the same and the mares are close to exact. The big difference is where Spinoff likes to position himself as opposed to Country with that same balance. Spinoff gains a huge edge there. The potential is here, post will be major for his quest. His stamina inheritance both top and bottom mimics those at the bottom of the list and his best bet may be the Belmont but his wins going short provide ammunition to be a player at 10f with this setup. If one were looking for some nice odds to throw into their super ticket, this guy has a great deal to offer in that regard.
Update: He gets an upgrade on a wet track.
DP = 5-7-11-1-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.67
Mare Profile = 4-6-2-10-9 Speed = 10 Stamina = 19 Index = 0.53 Triads = 12-18-21
This is one talented horse and he is L-O-A-D-E-D in stamina. He has Belmont Stakes written all over him and up until today (April 13th) I had all but put this guy on the back burner waiting for that race. I was actually hoping he would not secure a gate in this race so that he would be well rested for his big day at Belmont. But something happened today in the Arkansas Derby that stood out far past Omaha Beach actually winning that race on his apparent preferred surface. This guy, with his unbelievable amount of stamina, ran from the back of the pack and beat out 8 other horses on that sloppy track. This guy should have been coming up to that wire behind that entire field. That is a 2.69 stand-out. He has a certain determination that is not found too often. He has struggled to make a name for himself along the way but we all knew this was going to be the case with a horse bred like this. He should struggle against speed with his stamina mare pedigree at those shorter distance. He sat out there quietly and the further these distances go, the more this horse will shine. He has the stamina to run as far away from the rail as he needs to pass tiring horses and he will be coming up to the top of that stretch with all of his speed intact and ready to unleash. Excellent potential for board hit even though he is suited more for the June race.
DP = 6-5-13-0-0 (24) DI = 2.69 CD = 0.71
Mare Profile = 7-4-6-6-4 Speed = 11 Stamina = 10 Index = 1.20 Triads = 17-16-16
It would appear that we have another “Exaggerator type” who loves that sloppy track so that is a gift for us to keep on the sidelines. It also appears that this guy may be the best Frosted/Dortmund type of the bunch. His numbers are nothing to write home about for the Kentucky Derby but all arrows are pointing to him and Game Winner as the bigshot standouts in the ill-fated 2.10 to 2.90 category with the best past performances to date. It is important to concentrate on the fact that his Arkansas win was run at 9f and not 10f, and it was run on an off track and not a clean and clear track. The negative balance of speed vs stamina coming from his mares is truly not favorable for the 10f Derby and the fact that his triads descend is also not good. The extra 1/8th on a field of 20 demands a certain type of pedigree and he is not holding it. This is the type though where only past performances need to be judged over the breeding to determine if the colt is running past his numbers and if he deserves a spot among the advantaged. It would appear that most handicappers would side with the PP’s. The other part that stands out here is Omaha Beach’s chart. He has an “older pedigree” where some of the best sires usually found much further back in our present day 3 year old pedigrees, are much closer and more present. In this category, Omaha Beach is holding the highest inbred mare SPEED of the group which could be key to his success on a sloppy track and against those speed guys up top who have slight questionable mare stamina to sustain it. That 1.20 mare index could be his ticket if its raining. If its dry, let's just hope it doesn't take over any of that chef stamina. It is very tight and it probably will. To be honest and blunt, both the 2 biggest players who appear to be the crowned M/L favorites (Roadster and Omaha) have horrible numbers for this race. Both will have to dig deep and do this on their own. My gut is telling me not to ignore the numbers and to configure two separate tickets - one that consists of those who "appear" to be the big hotshots and one with those who are actually holding the right breeding to conquer the 10f with the greatest ease. This is exactly what I will be doing and neither Roadster nor Omaha will be on that second ticket. Strange year.
No need to worry any more.
DP = 6-2-10-0-0 (18) DI = 2.60 CD = 0.78
Mare Profile = 9-5-1-6-9 Speed = 14 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.96 Triads = 15-12-16
It is easier for me to simply copy and paste what I wrote the day after Roadster’s big win in the Santa Anita Derby. I will add a bit to the end. Nothing has changed since then: Strictly looking at the numbers as if they belonged to any 3 year old out there, my analysis is as follows. These numbers, both top, bottom, forwards and backwards are horrendous for the Kentucky Derby. The immediate response when looking at them is simply to say “this horse has absolutely, positively, without a shadow of a doubt, no chance whatsoever in the Kentucky Derby.” The chef’s stamina gets watered down. The mare triads are nowhere near where they need to be. The speed and stamina wings of the mares profile are completely spit in two. Just looking at the numbers, they depict a 9 to 9.3f horse. His higher end mid-range index puts a stamp on the entire set-up as being sub-par for the race of the roses. Here’s the kicker… the entire analysis must be thrown in the trash. It means absolutely nothing. It holds no weight and needs not even be written. For the Derby, one must spend their money and add in this particular colt to their Superfecta line-up completely across the board. Basically, you are damned if you do and damned if you don’t. Baffert horses do not follow their numbers. I will also add, if this colt was in any other barn I would toss him faster than lightening not because I consider him a bad horse, quite the contrary, but because his inheritance as shown in these numbers do not give him the 10f distance required against this particular field. The balance of these numbers are nowhere near where they need to be for the standards that the Kentucky Derby requires. To be absolutely frank, these numbers are close to, if not the worst set of numbers for the 10f distance on this field. Unfortunately, those who gamble on this race needs to give special “compensation” and basically dismiss the breeding just in case yet another colt from this particular barn has that “hidden magical stamina’” that is never found elsewhere. Your call. I will begrudgingly spend the extra money on a colt that I know is incorrect for the Kentucky Derby more than any other on this field. I will use Roadster across the board to alleviate getting burned by the “magic” but I will not rely on him in any spot on that Superfecta. If this colt wins the Kentucky Derby, it will be the first time in its history that a colt bred like this has prevailed. I just can't see it happening and this is the favorite.
Update: The numbers are even worse on a sloppy track. But he still remains a Baffert boy even in the rain.
DP = 4-4-7-1-0 (16) DI = 2.56 CD = 0.69
Mare Profile = 4-3-7-5-8 Speed = 7 Stamina = 13 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-15-20
This guy reminds me a great deal of Reride, another son of Candy Ride from last year, who sparkled in his early races and then basically vanished. Both highly regarded and both racking wins along the way. Vekoma appears to be in a much better position than his half-brother was in that they put Reride on a plane and flew him to Dubai and he was never the same again. So, the early course remains intact for Vekoma which is a very strong positive. With a slight change here... because of how the speed category has unfolded this year, more scrutiny in this group was in order. Because Omaha Beach and Roadster are the big talk of the town one would put more emphasis on their past performances and it clouds others. Because the breeding of those two leaves much to be desired, the others sometimes fall back but as far as numbers I put this set far above theirs and couple them with his past performances which are much better. Vekoma does not have Top of the board numbers and he will struggle for a win, but his stamina is there above the other two to go further down that stretch. After looking deeper, this may actually be where that arrow lands in this average category. Instead of Omaha Beach and Roadster, the distance capability is with Game Winner and Vekoma. Great for clean track, not good if it rains.
DP = 3-4-6-1-0 (14) DI = 2.50 CD = 0.64
Mare Profile = 7-5-2-8-6 Speed = 12 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 14-15-16
This guy debuted at 10f and came in 4th. He won his second maiden attempt traveling 9f. He then won an allowance race back in January at 9f and has not won again since. Regardless of the country he is coming from, one maiden win in 2018 and one allowance win close to 3 months ago coupled with the configurations of those numbers points to a complete toss. And don’t look back!
DP = 2-9-15-0-0 (26) DI = 2.47 CD = 0.50
Mare Profile = 4-2-6-8-7 Speed = 6 Stamina = 15 Index = 0.57 Triads = 12-16-21
Save him for the Belmont. The chef speed required for the Derby is just not there and it is severely lacking from the mares. He goes the distance but he cannot compete with the speed found all over this board. If you load up on the bottom of your supers, that point spread and the 21 found in those triads may warrant a few dollars.
Update: Downgrade on a sloppy track.
DP = 3-6-10-1-0 (20) DI = 2.33 CD = 0.55
Mare Profile = 6-1-4-5-11 Speed = 7 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.55 Triads = 11-10-20
The stamina found in those mares numbers rival the big guys down below. There is no question that if the speed up top falters, Game Winner would have a serious advantage along with those below. These numbers do not win the Kentucky Derby. It is the triads that steal from the necessary speed because of how great that spread is in the balance. He is stacked for the Belmont which means he can go the distance and his past performances demand that this “average inheritance” colt retain respect. The difference between Baffert’s Game Winner and Roadster in this category is that there is obvious stamina inherited from GW’s mares and it is lacking in Roadster’s mares. GW’s stamina is an advantage on a clear fast track, however, it will be to his great disadvantage on a sloppy track. Herein lies the Baffert dilemma. Do you stick with the barn or do you go where the numbers take you with reference to the conditions of the track. I had vowed long ago to never analyze Baffert’s hotshots again but I decided it best to point out the obvious and let the handicapper make his own decisions. I do believe this guy would be a player on a clear fast track if that speed category goes crazy out of the gate. His stamina inheritance and his PP’s are fantastic for Superfecta consideration.
Update: No change. Baffert Boy.
DP = 3-7-18-0-0 (28) DI = 2.11 CD = 0.46
Mare Profile = 10-4-2-6-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.08 Triads = 16-12-16
This guy is .01 away from that stamina category so more scrutiny is deserved. One of the main things that stands out here is that mare 1.08 index positioned underneath his chef 2.11 index. Mare’s indexes are read differently in that any above approximately .95 depicts a speedier index as opposed to a chef’s speed index that begins at the 3.00 point. His inheritance is flipped but that isn’t always a bad thing. Since Cutting Humor is gaining the stamina from his chefs and the mares are dropping the speed on him, he balances out fairly nicely. The triads on the other hand are lacking a great deal for this race. With the higher amount of colts equipped with the proper stamina competing this year, a gamble on those triads does not seem to be a good proposition.
2.10 and Under Stamina Group
As of late, speed has dominated stamina. There are 2 reasons for this. The first being that if there are enough speed types with enough mare stamina to sustain it, they will always be in the best position nearing the far turn and therefore taking the top spots. The other reason is that speed dominates when the track is sloppy. It is important to handicap the speed first in order to distinguish how that pace will unfold. This has an effect on the order of finish as to which category will find the greatest advantage. If speed holds, a high-end stamina guy, usually found running closer to the pace and with his speedy foes up front, he will continue along with them. These three guys below represent the highest amount of chef inherited stamina on the field.
UPDATE FOR ALL THREE OF THESE STAMINA GUYS:
"Stamina" generally does very poorly on a sloppy track. Until Instilled Regard last year, they just could never ever compete with the speed. War of Will and Tax both have spectacular numbers and for completely different reasons. The fact that the 2 of them run close to the lead, coupled with having the best sets of triads on the entire field warrant consideration on a sloppy track. Usually they would be easy tosses but because of the numbers found from this point all the way up to the top, none of them can compare to the mares contribution below. War of Will's post knocks him down a few notches. The 2 of them do not have the proper chef set-up, however, both of them have dominant mare numbers that must be considered on a sloppy track. Just ask Instilled Regard, he'll tell you!
DP = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) DI = 1.72 CD = 0.41
Mare Profile = 4-7-4-12-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = 0.95 Triads = 15-23-18
Unfortunate time at the gate in his last does not affect this guy’s stamina or his preferred running style for this particular race. He is loaded on top, his triads are spectacular, his past performances are a cut above many others and there just isn’t much happening in the negative department. War of Will has everything he needs to be a player in this race. His chef’s profile is magnificent and if he gets the position that he prefers out of that gate, he will continue ahead with the best of them. A serious Derby contender.
Update: See paragraph just above.
DP = 3-5-23-1-0 (32) DI = 1.56 CD = 0.31
Mare Profile = 7-5-4-8-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 16 Index = 0.82 Triads = 16-17-20
Here’s another strong overloaded stamina guy who loves being on the board and who also likes to run out front. There is no question that he can go the distance and he was only a bit more than a length behind the highly regarded Tacitus at the finish line. When you think about a strong stamina guy right on the back of a top notch speed guy traveling only 9f, it would appear that Tax actually ran a fantastic race and the fanfare for it was missing. That race should have told a lot about this horse but the simple fact is that there wasn’t much running below Haikal which means it was really just a three horse race. His win in the Withers was nice, however, not one of his competitors in that race made it to this one. And lastly, in the Remsen, he took third in a race that produced no other Derby probable. In this scenario, we have a good looking stamina horse with very nice numbers who runs up with the lead tier pack but his past performances against the other two in this group leave too much to be desired. The only thing is the stacked chef classic slot, which is a dominant 23 points that is very hard to overlook. Because the speed category is lacking in mare stamina this year, this category may be walking into the gates with the highest advantage. Since there are only 3 stamina guys in this category and it may end up being the most advantaged, there is no reason to cross him off yet. There are 10 others that can be crossed off first. He has a better set-up than most. I'll stick with all 3 for now but will most likely take the class and breeding of the other two.
Update: See paragraph just above.
DP = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) DI = 0.76 CD = 0.00
Mare Profile = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Index = 0.64 Triads = 14-25-20
I will push favoritism aside here. I purposely left his analysis to the end even though I always do the stamina guys first. The full analysis allowed me to see just where these numbers stand when pitted against the field. Code of Honor gained the highest amount of stamina between his mares and his chefs on the entire field. He is positioned at the furthest point away from the highest speed inheritance of Bodexpress. They are complete opposites and all others fill in between. If you note the brilliant speed number from the chefs (3) and the mares (2) you can get a fairly good idea that Code of Honor is not packing a whole lot of speed inheritance and yet he wired his maiden at 6f like a champ. He was at Saratoga which caters to this type of inheritance a great deal. Fast forward to Gulfstream where this type of colt would find zero advantage with his breeding and still conquered the Fountain of Youth which means he conquered the highly advantaged SPEED contenders that day. He also has competed while running in all kinds of positions that he found himself in. That is a standout. His triads are the best on the field for a clean track for the Derby race. His configurations are not good for a sloppy track. The only way this type of breeding would prevail on a clean fast track is if stamina is lacking in a great amount of the speed contenders up top. Unfortunately for CoH, there is Maximum Security, Improbable, Tacitus, and Haikal who inherited far greater speed from their chefs with enough stamina from their mares to sustain it, not to mention all of the mid-range colts who have the distance capability as well. Finally, he has the other stamina guys to contend with which consists of two overloaded colts who prefer to run up with the lead. This is a very tough spot to be in for Code of Honor. Not all of those advantaged colts will find a perfect trip (on a fast CLEAN track) to see their numbers lit on the tote board so there is always the possibility but realistically every single colt above him on this list is packing more speed inheritance while he is packing more stamina inheritance. A combination of speed and stamina wins the Derby. The maiden win at Saratoga, where he was at least allowed to run on a more suitable track for his breeding showed a colt who ran through his numbers and demolished the speed on that field against his optimum distance. For the Derby race, he will be running (finally) on a more suitable track and he will be running much closer to his optimum distance which should allow his performance capability to rise a great deal. Is this enough? That must be your call. Realistically, after putting together this full analysis and having each colt laid out in their proper category, it appears that Code of Honor will enter the gate retaining a disadvantage once again. His impeccable breeding may rise to the occasion, as he is arguably the best bred of the bunch. He will need the absolute perfect trip, the absolute perfect gate, and the absolute perfect weather (including perfect weather for 3 days prior) to win this race. A board hit is not out of the question though for this magnificently bred colt. He was born with class.
*addition - Code of Honor won the FOY on a day where it was 86% HUMIDITY. Amazing. His breeding, even more loaded than Instilled Regard from last year, may not be such a stretch in the rain. Instilled sat in this very same spot and grabbed his 4th in the rain. Nothing is impossible when a horse has gold running in his veins.
Update: The weather will probably affect him. But don't forget him for the future.
Good Luck Everyone!
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