2019 Breeders Cup Classic Analysis
Listed in order of highest inherited speed down to highest inherited stamina (from the chefs).
Mares are taken into account separately.
SPEED - 3.00 and Over:
Chefs: DP = 5-4-7-0-0 (16) Index = 3.57 CD = .88
Mares: DP = 5-3-2-9-8 Speed = 8 Stamina = 17 Index = .56 Triads = 10-14-19
Optimum Combined Distance = 11f
The Classic pits speed against stamina ONLY when there are speed competitors in the gate with serious Mare stamina inheritance to preserve it. Vino Rosso is the epitome of the perfect balance between his Speed dominant chefs and the Stamina dominant Mares in his numbers. Speed wins races if and only if the balance from the mares allows the horse to sustain it. Vino sits at the top of the pack as far as Chef inherited speed and that point spread is spectacular for the 10f distance. This guy has the highest advantage on the field and with the added punch of determination to seek revenge against Code of Honor for his DQ, Vino appears to be in a fantastic position to upset this race. Vino has a pattern of putting in a great performance in one race and in his subsequent, he takes a dip on that board. This pattern is great news for Code. Vino certainly has a serious advantage in the race, being the only one on the field with high chef speed with a chart that undeniably gives him the distance. He had a great time at Santa Anita traveling the 10f back in May with J Velasquez but that Jockey is sticking with the other star. Everything is here for this horse to make his presence known down the stretch and his set-up makes him a very strong player for the top of the superfecta. Vino is the only horse entered above 3.00 and he has the mare stamina to sustain all of it. This is the combination that wins the Classic when held at Santa Anita. He is a major threat for the trophy.
Chefs: DP = 8-9-11-2-0 (30) Index = 3.00 CD = .77
Mares: DP = 12-4-1-5-9 Speed = 16 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.21 Triads = 17-10-15
Optimum Combined Distance = 9.4f
The numbers usually do not correlate to females, so I won't go in depth - but if she were a colt - these numbers read extremely harsh on that mare line. Somehow she managed to win at the 10f distance at Delaware Park but I see no translation to Santa Anita with these numbers. Again, this analysis can not be conclusive and confidently written when it come to fillies.
Chefs: DP = 1-3-4-0-0 (8) Index = 3.00 CD = .63
Mares: DP = 7-7-4-5-8 Speed = 14 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.00 Triads = 18-16-17
Optimum Combined Distance = 9.4f
He'll gain some extra lengths on the Santa Anita track because of the bias and his breeding, which is what you want to see in a Santa Anita Classic race but the mares only enhance his speed as opposed to adding endurance. He will perform past many on this field and the bias should allow him to make it mid stretch and then he gives in. This guy is very talented and his speed inheritance is fantastic to compete on Breeders weekend, however, this is not the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, which is where this guy belongs. The bias should give him a step up from other 10f performances that he put in elsewhere but his mare stamina falls short when pitted against the bigshots of the field. He could grab a very small piece of the bottom because he will like this track and his performance here should be enhanced a bit.
MID RANGE 2.00 to 2.90
Chefs = 4-3-9-0-0 (16) Index = 2.56 CD = .69
Mares = 8-5-2-8-6 Speed = 13 Stamina = 14 Index = 1.05 Triads = 15-15-16
Optimum Combined Distance = 10.1f
The strong stamina influence comes from the chefs in this case and he is evenly spread out from his mares. This guy has never traveled the distance but he sure can if he wants to. The bias of the Santa Anita track mimics Parx to a great extent and he will come flying with that late wicked speed of his. With a fast early pace and speed duel, Math Wizard will see some action down the stretch because he can sustain it - with a slow pace he never gets by them because his early speed inheritance does not compare to others. Fast pace, yes. Slow pace, no. How the race sets up determines his fate because he can go the distance. The problem here is that he may be asked to pick his game up in order to stay with the pack early on and this will affect his reserved energy late very negatively.
Chefs = 9-6-10-3-0 (28) Index = 2.50 CD = .75
Mares = 12-3-4-5-7 Speed = 15 Stamina = 12 Index = 1.35 Triads = 19-12-16
Optimum Combined Distance = 9.6f
He ran a very nice race in the 10f Pacific Classic despite the fact that his breeding falls a bit short of the distance, however, his breeding hits it on the nose with the amount of inherited speed aligning with the bias of the Santa Anita track. This guy inherited the highest combined early speed of 30 points which is "off the charts sensational". He has the configurations of a horse who should fly out of that gate and gun for that lead but he only managed to do that one time in his career and that was on turf. It seems that he does do well when he is much more forwardly placed which reconfirms that when a horse runs to his breeding, he is much more successful on the track. His number configurations demand that he be up front early, so much depends on his eventual post position draw. Not sure that he has the guns to beat out the hotshots early on here and if he does succeed to do so, his energy will be spent long before the finish line at 10f. Notice how high his mares index is and note how the triads descend but in spite of this, he somehow managed that 10f win at DelMar. Additionally, in a prior race, he ran closer to how his breeding suggests which culminated in a sub-par performance at the same distance at Santa Anita. So was the Pacific Classic a fluke? It is obvious that he will need that forward position to be a player. I am not sold on his numbers for this race but he did overcome and outshine in the Pacific Classic. He is the type to throw onto the bottom of a super if after you type in your wager and you feel you can spare a few more dollars underneath. The inherited speed is definitely there to compete and he did outperform those numbers at DelMar. He could be a sneaky surprise.
Chefs = 6-4-11-1-0 (22) Index = 2.38 CD = .68
Mares = 8-3-3-8-5 Speed = 11 Stamina = 13 Index = 1.05 Triads = 14-14-16
Optimum Combined Distance = 9.8f
The distance is here but the track bias is strongly against him. This guy can't seem to put it together properly as he should have loved the track at Saratoga and although he managed board hits, he didn't get the job done. This is the opposite of how Code of Honor reacted to the favorable bias of that track. Yoshida has never competed on a fast slick dirt track like the one he will be competing at this coming weekend. Since he did not skyrocket where he SHOULD have (at Saratoga) this may actually mean he favors his mares and will thrive on a track like Santa Anita. The distance is there and this is the only guy on the field where he is a 50-50 shot as far as a board hit. The bias for him is indeterminable based on his form falling short where it should have thrived. A good addition underneath on the super just in case that type of track is just what he's been wishing for.
Chefs = 4-0-6-0-0 (10) Index = 2.33 CD = .80
Mares = 8-5-1-8-7 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index .96 Triads = 14-14-16
Optimum Combined Distance = 9.5f
Just like Owendale, the bias of the Santa Anita track will offer him a few extra lengths and his class offers him a boost as well, however, his inheritance does fall short of the 10f against what he has standing in the gates next to him. He has displayed awesome speed in his past races and sometimes the bias will be favorable and allow a horse bred like him to skate across the track with great ease which reserves some of that stamina, taking advantage where they may otherwise fall short - but sometimes that same speedy bias makes them drive even faster which steals the ending thunder even quicker. This horse is great and he very well may be "juiced up" enough to cross the wire first but with his true numbers and breeding, he hits 9.8f and then he watches others roll on by. He wins it with the Baffert "magic potion" - He hits under on that board without it. Just like with Roadster in the Derby, if it weren't for his home being in a Baffert Barn, he would be a quick toss at this distance... Gotta spread him because of the secrecy of enhancing drugs administered to Justify which was QUIETLY allowed in the past AT THE SAME TRACK. Unfortunate that the Baffert antics are still tolerated at this point.
Chefs = 7-3-16-0-0 (26) Index = 2.25 CD = .65
Mares = 10-3-4-6-9 Speed = 13 Stamina = 15 Index = .96 Triads = 17-13-19
Optimum Combined Distance = 10f
The mares early speed numbers combine to 13 points and the mare and chef early speed numbers combine to a whopping 23 points which is much greater than what Vino Rosso is holding sitting up there in that "Speed" category but less than Higher Power. This guy is packed with speed and those numbers look phenomenal underneath that low .65 CD from the chefs. This horse can sustain his speed the 10f distance but he will not be alone up there if he grabs the lead. Vino, Higher Power and War of Will may want a part of it which means two of the top speed guys of the field will be out there trying to wire the field and this may result in a speed duel. On a fast track like Santa Anita that speed will be enhanced by the bias. Both Vino and Mongolian Groom have the breeding to sustain the distance and if they both spread their energy out throughout the race they have it in the bag. If they push each other to the limit, they will hand the win to Code of Honor. Mongolian Groom is a strong player here in more ways than one. A must use on any superfecta ticket.
STAMINA - UNDER 2.00
WAR OF WILL
Chefs = 5-8-17-4-0 (34) Index = 1.72 CD = .41
Mares = 4-7-4-12-2 Speed = 11 Stamina = 14 Index = .95 Triads = 15-23-18
Optimum Combined Distance = 10.4
These three stamina guys have the biggest disadvantage on the field for this particular race held at this particular track. They just don't win it here because of the bias (or if Bob Baffert decides to knock one out of the race at the starting gate). It is a very tough spot at this track for these guys, especially for War of Will. He will find his forward position but his combined speed numbers do not compare with many others (namely Mongolian Groom, McKinzie, and Vino) and his past performance sheet mimics those numbers. Even though this guy has no problem with the distance, his form has not been the same since his smashing win in the Preakness and to compete next to the class found elsewhere here coupled with the strong negative bias matched with his breeding, it would be a shock to the system to see him anywhere near that finish line first.
SEEKING THE SOUL
Chefs = 7-3-14-4-0 (28) Index = 1.55 CD = .46
Mares = 8-4-4-5-8 Speed = 12 Stamina = 13 Index = .96 Triads = 16-13-17
Optimum Combined Distance = 9.9f
His late pace at Churchill Downs in the Stephen Foster back in June rivals the numbers of Math Wizard and McKinzie but important to note that those numbers go with a 9f race and not a 10f race. His configurations do not correspond with this track for this particular race and his early numbers leave much to be desired. The only angle here is the Dallas Stewart effect which always seems to spoil the party for no reason whatsoever. This horse is a Catch 22 in that regard.
CODE OF HONOR
Chefs = 3-1-11-7-0 (22) Index = .76 CD = 0.00
Mares = 2-10-2-13-5 Speed = 12 Stamina = 18 Triads = 14-25-20
Optimum Combined Distance = 11.9
Favoritism aside. This horse is the best bred on the field. He has the highest amount of inbred stamina on the field with Vino Rosso (mare side) underneath him. He does not have a built-in advantage on this particular track for this particular race, neither from his numbers nor from his running style. Vino has the advantage here and McKinzie has Baffert. Sometimes the speed up top holds at this track (like Bayern in 2014 and Fort Larned in 2012) and sometimes that bias cripples a lead speed guy and hands it to one coming from the back (but not too far back - like Arrogate in 2016 and Mucho Macho Man in 2013). Code can not afford to drop too far back and if Johnny V. looks to the past he will have Code slightly closer than where he has been running as of late. He can topple a horse like McKinzie who really does not have the distance and he can outrun a horse like Vino who does not care to run back to back wins. Johnny stays atop this guy for a reason. The bias hurts him but then again the bias at Churchill Downs for the Derby should have crippled a horse bred like this and it didn't faze him in the least. It is all about the breeding of this guy, at this distance, against what he is pitted against that gives him a major edge. His true competition in this race is Vino Rosso.
Vino is the top speed guy with more than enough mare stamina to get it done. Code of Honor is the top stamina guy with the best set of numbers and the classiest set of genes on the field. There must be something to be said about that. The highest amount of inbred speed of the field pitted against the highest amount of inbred stamina on the field. That is the Breeders Cup Classic at Santa Anita each time it is held here.
Mongolian Groom and Higher Power threaten for a piece.
And the unknown "Magic Potion" creeps in... Baffert's McKinzie.